[Andy]

Andre seems like the consensus #1 WR this year...I've seen him being taken as high as #4 overall in PPR leagues, and rarely see him fall past #6 overall. My question is: how do you rank the rest of the elite WRs? Who's the best of the rest?

The candidates:

Randy Moss, NE
pros:
-#1 option on a pass-first offense
-elite talent, and has an elite talent at QB with Tom Brady
-Welker likely limited or missing time could result in more targets
cons:
-getting up there in age.
-sometimes takes plays off
-tough schedule

my verdict: Most people seem to have him as the #2 WR, but my gut is telling me to avoid him at his current ADP. He could easily go off and be the #1 WR in fantasy, but I just don't trust a guy who doesn't give his all on every play, and when you factor that in with his age and tough schedule it makes it easier for me to pass on him.

Reggie Wayne, IND
pros:
-like Moss, the #1 option on a pass-first offense
-also like Moss, he is very talented and has one of the all-time great QBs throwing him the ball.
-shouldn't see too many double teams with all of the weapons that they have
cons:
-huge drop-off in production during the 2nd half of last season. 8 tds in first 9 games. 2 in final 7. 8 games with 6+ catches in first 9 games. Only hit that mark once in the final 7
-a lot of mouths to feed here
-like all key Colts players, you risk losing him during the final couple weeks of the season if they wrap up their spot early

my verdict: Another guy who most have right behind AJ, and another guy who I probably won't be drafting where he is usually being taken. The lack of production in the 2nd half of the season really worries me as does the emergence of so many other targets. With Clark, Collie, Garcon, and now a healthy Gonzalez taking away passes, I don't see Wayne finishing in the top 5.

Brandon Marshall, MIA
pros:
-3 straight 100+ catch seasons, and he did it last year with Captain Neckbeard throwing him the ball
-Henne should be a nice upgrade at QB over Orton
-the unquestioned #1 option in the passing game
cons:
-on a run-first offense
-always a risk of doing something stupid and getting suspended
-has to face Revis twice

my verdict: Some people are down on him, but right now I have him ranked as the #2 WR in PPR leagues behind only Andre. As good a bet as any to hit 100 catches, and Henne's big arm should help him make more big plays this year

Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
pros:
-one of the most talented WRs in the league
-improved running game should help open things up for him
-nice schedule
cons:
-obviously losing Warner and Boldin should hurt his numbers
-offense should move to run-first
-MATT LEINART

my verdict: Possibly the most debated player in fantasy this year. While I do think losing Warner will hurt, it's not like he was playing amazing football last year. Yes, in 08 Warner was at the top of his game...but 09 Warner didn't look to impressive to me and Fitz still put up great numbers. Leinart won't play like 08 Warner, and might not reach 09 Warner's level either, but if he can come close I won't be too worried about Fitz. Losing Boldin will mean more attention from the defense, but it will also mean more targets as well. And it's not like Fitz isn't used to playing against double coverage. He might not have as much upside as in years past, but he seems pretty safe to me.

Calvin Johnson, DET
pros:
-arguably the most physically gifted WR in the league, and the clear #1 option on this offense
-additions of Burleson, Best and Scheffler should help take some pressure off of him
-Stafford should continue to improve in his 2nd year
cons:
-seems to have problems with injuries
-has only had 1 elite season
-has been inconsistent

my verdict: He's huge, he's extremely fast, he's Megatron. He has as much upside as anyone out there. He's produced with crap at QB before, and Stafford should only be improving. I love the additions they made on offense to take some of the defenses attention away from Calvin. What's not to like? Well, the only 2 things that worry me are the injuries and the inconsistencies. His hands could also be a concern as shown by his low catch percentage, but that could also be caused by poor QB play, heavy coverage, and the fact that most of his routes are of the medium-to-long variety. He should probably be taken in the top 5 WRs due to his upside, but I'm not 100% sure where I'm putting him right now.

Roddy White, ATL
pros:
-the clear #1 option on his team in the passing game, but still has a guy like Gonzo to take pressure off of him
-entering his 3rd full season with Matt Ryan should result in more production for him
-has proven to be very durable
cons:
-run-first offense
-while very talented, might not be on the same level as Fitz and the Johnson brothers

my verdict: Safe, reliable, consistent. That's what you get with Roddy White. I really don't see any negatives here outside the fact that his team won't be throwing the ball up 40 times a game. As Matt Ryan matures, it will only improve Roddy White's numbers. My #3 PPR WR

Miles Austin, DAL
pros:
-on a high powered offense with a great QB
-was an absolute beast last year
-defenses won't be able to key on him with all of the other weapons
cons:
-has only done it for 1 year
-LOTS of mouths to feed here

my verdict: This is one guy that I don't have a strong opinion on yet. He looked great last year, but we've all seen 1 year wonders before. He could easily finish in the top 3, he could just as easily finish outside the top-20. Personally, I don't see him being a bust...it's just a question of how high to rank him...


Here are my PPR rankings for these top WRs:
1-Andre Johnson
2-Brandon Marshall
3-Roddy White
4-Larry Fitzgerald
5-Calvin Johnson
6-Randy Moss
7-Miles Austin
8-Reggie Wayne

Now....let's see YOUR rankings for these guys...and let me know what you think of mine!

[steviep]

Hey Andy!
I like where you're going with your rankings. I definitely see Brandon Marshall being up there, certainly top 5, but I think you've got Roddy White a little high. I like Matt Ryan but I think you said it best, Atlanta is a run first team and I can see an owner getting burned thinking he's a top flight, consistent #1 and then getting upset when he has games where he catches two passes (trust me I've been there). I guess I really want to see a stud worthy year from him before I place him in the top 5.

I also think you forgot Anquan Boldin in your list. I really like him in Baltimore catching passes from Flacco. Flacco really impressed me last year and now that he's got a "go to guy" like Boldin... I just think they will do amazing things. Certainly past injuries are a question, but I think he should be healthy all season. Boldin is a beast... That means someone from your list didn't make it onto my top 8... sorry Reggie Wayne. You said it best, Andy... too many mouths to feed and I see Indy becoming a Saints-like team... who's Peyton going to throw it to today? I've seen some rankings have him as high as #3 overall WR and much... much farther down than that. I think right around 9 or 10 is were Wayne should sit this season.

Here's my top 10 (added two just for fun):
1-Andre Johnson
2-Brandon Marshall
3-Larry Fitzgerald
4-Calvin Johnson
5-Anquan Boldin
6-Randy Moss
6-Roddy White
8-Miles Austin
9-Reggie Wayne
10-Greg Jennings

[Andy]

Thanks for the response...I'm surprised more people didn't reply, as this seems to be a pretty interesting debate this offseason as to who is #2 at WR. Everyone has question marks outside of AJ.

One of the reasons I brought it up is I drew the 10th pick in a 10 team PPR and plan on going WR-WR, so I'm doing a ton of research on these guys trying to figure out who should do the best of them...and I continually am flip-flopping back and forth as to who I like the most.

As for Roddy White...he is a guy that I just can't find the right spot to put in my rankings...I feel he has the least risk of anyone here AND he should be in line for improvement, but for some reason I just don't feel right putting him in that elite group(even though I did in my original ranking). Roddy has finished #4 and #9 the past 2 seasons...the #4 ranking was w/ a rookie QB, and the #9 was w/ a 2nd year QB who was struggling and playing injured through part of the year. He definitely has room to improve.

Lately I've been warming up to Calvin a lot(even though he burned me last year), especially over Fitzgerald. I figure as long as he stays healthy he should easily land in the top 3 w/ upside to be #1. Despite his inconsistencies and injuries last year, he still managed to average a solid 16ppg over the 2nd half of last season. He is now healthy, has new weapons to take away some attention from the defense, and has had all summer to develop chemistry with Stafford. Everything about his situation is improved over last year and as long as he stays healthy he will finish in the top 3.
Fitz on the other hand, has had his situation decrease in pretty much every way since last year. The only upside is he might get more targets with Boldin gone. I see his upside at around the #5 WR by the end of the year, but at the same time he doesn't have to much risk. He should be a safe bet to finish between 5 and 10.

Another guy who has really caught my attention is Miles Austin. The guy finished 6th in PPR last year despite barely playing in the first 4 weeks. He was very consistent, and did have weeks where he absolutely blew up. Teams won't be able to double him due to guys like Witten and Bryant, and he should remain Romo's favorite option. The more I look into this guy the more I like him. He has huge upside if he puts up numbers like he did last season over a full 16 games, and I see no reason why he shouldn't finish in the top 10. It also doesn't hurt that he has one of the easiest schedule in the league in terms of pass defense.

I'm sorry for these long posts, it won't be too much longer, i promise.

On Brandon Marshall, I like to see that you agree with me on him. Soo many website have him ranked pretty low. I recorded the rankings for 25 different fantasy website and he had the lowest average ranking out of all of the WRs I mentioned. He was even ranked outside the top 10 five times! That is my only doubt with this guy is that everyone seems to be down on him...but in these combined rankings, Reggie Wayne comes out at 3rd overall behind only Andre and Moss(he was even ranked ahead of Andre on 1 site )...so clearly I'm not thinking the same as these guys...and I have to say, I trust my opinion more than most of these "experts".

Onto your guys, the only reason I didn't include Jennings,Boldin (and some others that I'll mention later) was because I was mainly looking at the guys that could be legitimately argued into the top 2 or 3.. I'm always a little scared off by Boldin due to his injury history and this year the transistion to a new offense as well as a tough schedule could keep him down a little. But like you said, IF he stays healthy he should definitely have a great season...and like you I am also high on Flacco...that should be a great offense to watch this year. I definitely think Jennings will bounce back, but I don't think he has the upside of some of the other guys to finish in the top 5. The other guys that are usually in that next tier w/ Boldin and Jennings would include Rice, D-Jax and Smith(NYG). Everyone loves Smith in PPR, but I don't think he'll repeat 100+ catches(should be able to hit around 90). He'll still be a solid option, but the Giants shouldn't be passing as much this year with what should be a much improved defense over last year. Rice's hip is a little troublesome as well as the status of Favre. D-Jax just doesn't catch enough balls, only 62 in each of his first 2 seasons...the fact that most of his TDs came on long plays also doesn't help his case.

Anyways, sorry again for the really long post...hopefully this can help generate some more discussion on these forums.

My new and updated top 10 PPR WR rankings(these will probably change many times prior to the start of the season...as I keep flip-flopping):
1-Andre Johnson
2-Brandon Marshall
3-Calvin Johnson
4-Miles Austin
5-Randy Moss
6-Roddy White
7-Larry Fitzgerald
8-Reggie Wayne
9-Greg Jennings
10-Steve Smith(NYG)...gave him the slight edge over Boldin at #11

[steviep]

Yeah I guess everyone wants to talk about running backs. There are fools in my league that still think this way too. The last two years, I made it into the finals with nothing but great receivers. Hopefully this year I can get a solid QB or RB to finish first. But I digress. I too think it's all about WRs and QBs are starting to make a little noise too. Though last year was the perfect example why having a top flight QB is not a necessity. I saw the stat the other day, it was like 12 QBs broke 4K yards... It was sick... RBs are dropping on my list as most teams are going to RBBC. I guess the next fantasy football nightmare will be the WRBC... looks like a few teams are going that route trying to replicate the Saint's success. Hopefully it doesn't take hold.

I like your revised top 10 a little better. I think though I would switch Miles and Larry. I just think Miles had a huge year because no one had any tape on the guy... But they'll be ready for him this year...

Too bad more people aren't interested in this topic. I think WRs is THE position to watch this year. BTW, if you're picking 10th... definitely go WR-WR or WR-QB.

hey check out my keeper post... Need help... badly!

[Andy]

steviep, on 02 August 2010 - 09:35 PM, said:

I like your revised top 10 a little better. I think though I would switch Miles and Larry. I just think Miles had a huge year because no one had any tape on the guy... But they'll be ready for him this year...

That was one of my original thoughts as well. But after looking at his game-by-game stats last year, it's clear that after his first 2 huge games, teams starting really planning to stop him. And it worked...at first. After his 2 monster breakout games, he put up much weaker stat lines of 5-61-1, 1-49-1, 4-20-0, and 4-47-0 over the next 4 games. However, despite the extra attention he then worked through it and put up 7-145-1(against Nnamdi Asomugha), 10-104-1, 6-71-1, 7-139-1, 9-92-0, and 7-90-0 over the rest of the season. That is both incredibly consistent and dominant.


The more I look into this guys stats, the more I like him for this coming year.


And I am loving WR-WR this year...the increase in RBBCs are causing the RBs available at the ends of round 1 and beginning of round 2 to be about the same quality that you can find 3-4 rounds later. I actually went WR-WR-WR-TE in one league last year and finished in 1st place. I don't advise taking a TE in round 4 this year, as the position looks very deep. But, all you have to do is hit on 1 or 2 RBs late and you are set.

This post has been edited by Andy: 03 August 2010 - 07:10 AM

[Andy]

bump

After about a week of training camp, all things look good so far for these guys.

Calvin, Marshall, and Roddy are all getting rave reviews so far(as have their QBs, which is huge). One more great thing for Marshall is that reports are that he seems much more mature than he was in Denver...hopefully that helps him stay out of trouble

I haven't really heard much about Fitz or Austin...I guess that can be viewed as a good thing at this point. For Fitz's sake, I was hoping to hear that Leinart had been looking great in camp, but haven't heard anything like that yet. There also hasn't been much about Moss or Wayne except that they look their usual selves, which is definitely good.

Can't wait for the preseason to come to get a clearer picture on these guys(and everyone else in the league).


One more note to add to my previous thoughts on Brandon Marshall(and why I have him as my #2 PPR WR). Most people have his main cause for concern as the move to a run-first offense. In Henne's 13 starts last year the Dolphins topped 30 pass attempts 7 times...40 attempts 3 times...and 50 attempts twice. Even as a run-first team, they are clearly willing to air the ball out when they need to. Also, with the likelihood of injury for their RBs(Ronnie is almost always injured and Ricky is 33), I definitely wouldn't be surprised if they continue to pass even more. Davone Bess caught 76 balls in this offense last year! I don't understand how so many people are projecting Marshall's reception total to be only in the 80s.

As always, let me know your thoughts.

This post has been edited by Andy: 06 August 2010 - 07:50 AM

[Hip Hop Anonymous]

Hey guys, I've read this whole thread and I thought I'd chime in a bit. I'm in Arizona and, thus, probably get more Cardinals coverage than most. It pains me to say it, but I have to agree with Andy's (lower) ranking of Fitzgerald. Word out of camp in that Leinart's accuracy is horrible and the only one throwing worse passes than him is Derek Anderson. There was even an article a week or two ago that was trying to spin Leinart's performance in a good light. It talked about how he hit a couple of nice passes before throwing to Fitzy on a deep post route. Apparently, the pass was complete, but only because Adrian Wilson could have blown Fitzgerald up with where Leinart put the ball but decided not to. Afterwards, Leinart talked some smack to the DBs about "Yeah, but I made some good passes earlier" and the media tried to spin it as him "taking charge of the team". I see it as a bad QB making bad passes...

Fitzgerald is a gifted athlete and he excels at jumping up to out-reach the DBs and come down with the ball. That's a great trait to have when Warner's accuracy is throwing the ball. But with Leinart hurling it in Fitzgerald's basic area, I'm afraid of something very bad happening... Fitzgerald isn't built like Andre Johnson or Megatron... he's a tall, slender guy. Not that he won't be an awesome Fantasy WR, but he's not the Elite WR he could have been thanks to Leinart being under center.

[Andy]

Thanks for the insight on Fitz/Leinart. I'm definitely passing on that situation this year(unless Fitz was to really slip). I've never been a fan of Leinart, but did think he had a chance at being a solid QB this year if everything went right...but from the sound of it, that probably won't happen. Hopefully Skelton can put it all together and take over next year(I have him in a deep dynasty league...love his potential)

I have updated my rankings yet again...nothing big just switching Moss and Austin

This quote from CBS Rapid Reports today really made me warm up to Moss

"WR Randy Moss had another really good practice this morning He had no trouble beating double teams from the Saints. Moss, who is in the final year of his contract, is working much harder this year than in previous years."

the top 8:
1-Andre Johnson
2-Brandon Marshall
3-Calvin Johnson
4-Randy Moss
5-Miles Austin
6-Roddy White
7-Larry Fitzgerald
8-Reggie Wayne

2-4 are VERY close

[Hip Hop Anonymous]

I'm also keeping an eye on Skelton... though maybe the fact that I'm a Fordham grad has soemthing to do with that!

[steviep]

Moss is currently drafting as the #2 WR in ADP rankings. The story on Fitz saddens me a bit. I chose him as my keeper and I'm thinking I should have kept Wayne instead. I might have gotten a little more RB for him and in the end been vindicated by my decision. Either way I'm think I'm going to target one of the three (Moss, Austin or Marshall) if any of those come to me at pick #6 of round 3 (first two are already chosen by our keepers). In my league we can start up to 5 receivers so WRs are priceless in my opinion.