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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.5.14


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 05 March 2014 - 07:18 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.5.14

 

 

 

If you haven't tried playing Daily NBA you're missing out. While production in Fantasy Football is extremely unpredictable, basketball is close to a science when it comes to Daily Fantasy Sports, and there's no better place to play it then DraftKings.

 

No other DFS site can equal the size of Kings' pools and payouts, and you can get started by playing $2, $1 or even $0.25 games HERE. Who knows, you may turn that $2 entry fee into a $500 payout if you do enough research, that's how I made my bankroll and now I'm free rolling with over a $1,000 of winnings.

 

They will match your initial deposit ($100 deposit = $100 bonus) over time and get you started with a free ticket to the $2 guaranteed prize pool. Now's a great time to get started with huge College Basketball games later this month and Daily MLB action starting in April.

 

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 

 

 

Tonight, Wednesday March 5, 2014

 

Games to Target:

 

·      Dallas Mavericks (-3.5) @ Denver Nuggets – O/U = 218 The Nuggets are an ideal matchup because they play at the 4th fastest pace in the NBA, and usually manage to keep the game competitive. With Ty Lawson back in the fold, they should give the Mavericks all they can handle inside the Pepsi Center tonight.

 

Neither team has much rim protection, so penetrating guards such as Lawson and Monta Ellis should have solid outings, while Dirk Nowitzki gets a matchup with a Nuggets team that has been gutted by PFs all season. Vince Carter is always capable of blowing up and remains reasonably priced, while Wilson Chandler showed signs of life with 25 PTs and 10 REB in Monday’s loss to the Wolves.

 

·      Sacramento Kings (-2.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks O/U = 206.5 The “Three Kings” disappointed in what turned out to be an ugly contest with the Pelicans on Monday night, but they should bounce back against one of the worst teams in the NBA. Sacramento is 25th in terms of defensive efficiency this season, but the Bucks are even worse at 29th in the league and neither team is likely to get a ton of defensive stops in this contest.

 

Milwaukee tends to spread out their scoring and minutes these days, so it may be fools gold to chase Ersan Ilyasova’s stats in his previous outing. Brandon Knight is always capable of making noise and is an enticing GPP play as he has a big size advantage over Isaiah Thomas. A lot of people will fade DeMarcus Cousins after he got into foul trouble yet again on Monday, but Milwaukee is giving up the 3rd most FPPG to centers this season and allowing the position to shoot a league worst 54.7% from the field, so he could bounce back on the road tonight.

 

 

 

·      Atlanta Hawks @ Portland Trailblazers

The Blazers are a great fantasy matchup for the same reason the Nuggets are, and they are even more likely to keep a game competitive. In fact, Portland should be motivated to avenge Monday’s embarrassing loss to the shorthanded Lakers and should come out strong. While they lead the league in PPG (107.8), the Blazers also allow the 6th most PPG (103) and play at a fast enough pace to create production for all players on the floor.

 

Jeff Teague has been rolling lately and gets a great individual matchup with a defensively indifferent Damian Lillard, DeMarre Carrol should be everywhere for the Hawks and gets a bump if Paul Millsap is still inactive. For Portland, Nic Batum has been picking up the slack with LaMarcus Aldridge not yet up to speed and Robin Lopez gets a fantastic matchup if Elton Brand is the starting center for Atlanta.

 

 

 

 

 

The Little Things:

 

·      Steph Curry has been fantastic on the second night of B2B sets with per game averages of 30.3 PTs, 4.5 REB and 8.3 AST. He gets a great matchup with a Celtics team that has no perimeter defender to stick with him as Avery Bradley is still in street clothes.

·      Including a 3OT game, the Wizards have scored 118.75 PPG over their last four contests and are no longer a fantasy wasteland on offense.  They host a Jazz team that is dead last in terms of defensive efficiency and should cover the 7-poitn spread.

·      Joakim Noah battled through an ankle injury on Monday night but looked like a completely different player as he turned it over 6 times while dishing out just 1 AST. Tonight he will have to contend with the Man Child, Andre Drummond, who is coming off a career-high 26-rebound game, and will have his hands full.

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

Point Guard

 

Ty Lawson (DEN) vs. DAL: $7200

 

Lawson is $1,000 cheaper than he was in his debut on Monday, and he clearly found his groove with 29 points in the second half on his way to 56.5 DK points against the Wolves. He gets another great matchup against a Mavs team that ranks 22nd in terms of defensive efficiency, but regardless of who he plays against, Lawson is an obvious buy-low target at this price.

 

Jeff Teague (ATL) vs. POR: $7200

 

For the exact same price, Teague offers a very high floor and nearly as high a ceiling as Lawson. He also gets the top matchup for PGs as the Blazers are coughing up the MOST FPPG (45.48) to the position over the last two weeks. His inconsistency usually scares me off Teague in 50/50 or H2H formats, but with per game averages of 27.3 PTs, 3.5 REB, 6 AST, 1 STL and 1 3PTM over his last four appearances he seems safe to deploy in a high-scoring contest.

 

 

Value:  Patrick Beverley played great against the Heat last night and should exceed value at just $4600 against a poor defensive team in Orlando.

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Steph Curry (GSW) vs. BOS: $9700

 

The last time Curry was shut down by an excellent defensive team (5 Pts on 2-10 shooting with 5 TOs against Chicago) he bounced back with a triple double in a blowout win over the Knicks. The Pacers didn’t exactly shut him down last night as he posted a 19/8/6 line in the win, but Paul George definitely frustrated him down the stretch. Tonight he gets a matchup with an increasingly poor defensive team in Boston, and his usual adversary (Avery Bradley) will be inactive, so look for Curry to have another big game.

 

Kevin Martin (MIN) vs. NYK: $5500

 

The Knicks don’t allow huge FPPG numbers because they play at slow pace, but they are vulnerable to one thing in particular: shooters. Martin dropped 30 PTs as he shot 9 of 12 from the field and 5 for 5 from 3PT range in MSG way back in early November, and he should get plenty of open looks at home tonight. The Knicks are the 4th worst team in terms of 3PT FG% against, and have the 4th worst defensive rating overall. All the Wolves will have to do is move the ball around after initiating problems with Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love in PnR situations, and wing scorers like Martin should reap the benefits.

 

Values: A physical game between the Pistons and Bulls would seem to suit Rodney Stuckey, who should meet value at $4500 but is unlikely to exceed 30 FPs due to lackluster peripheral stats.

 

Jerryd Bayless has played 30+ minutes and scored in double figures in four straight games. With Avery Bradley and Gerald Wallace out, he is a steal at just $4200.

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Carmelo Anthony (NYK) vs. MIN: $10,000

 

Melo’s price dropped back down to 10K after a couple of moderate performances, but I have a feeling he heats back up tonight. The Knicks are 9-point underdogs in Minnesota tonight, but the Wolves are a pretty awful defensive team on the perimeter and are coughing up the 5th most FPPG (42.76) to opposing SFs over the last two weeks. Anthony has attempted 20+ FGs in 9 of his last 10 games and leads the league in MPG. That type of volume is much more valuable on DraftKings than any other site considering their scoring system doesn’t dock points for missed shots.

 

 

Nic Batum (POR) vs. ATL: $7600

 

Batum’s price is rising, but his versatile play makes him an enticing option nonetheless. He’s pulled down a silly 31 REB over his last two appearances and continues to fill up the stat sheet despite struggling with his shot due to a splint on his finger. The Hawks struggle to contain perimeter players, as evidenced by the huge game Gerald Green had against them on Sunday night and Batum is a safe play once again in what should be a fast-paced matchup.

 

Values: Khris Middleton will likely start opposite Rudy Gay and has been scoring the ball proficiently, at $4200 he’s well worth a look.

 

Draymond Green is the best punt play available at $3600 as he should find a role in a matchup with Boston’s stocky front line.

 

 

Power Forward

 

Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) vs. DEN: $7200

 

I could tell you to play Kevin Love, because, c’mon, the guy is incredible, but for $4,200 cheaper, Nowitzki may be a better value tonight. Dirk is playing in a game with the highest O/U of the night at 218 and opposing PFs have crushed the Nuggets to the tune of 45.23 FPPG this season. Expect Dallas to run their offense through the big German as they pile up the points in a close matchup.

 

Terrence Jones (HOU) vs. ORL: $5100

 

Jones was in this very same spot yesterday, and came through in a big way with 19 PTs, 12 REB and 41 DK points in a win over the Heat. While he’s struggled on the road this season, the Magic aren’t stopping any PFs since Glen Davis was shipped out of town and Jones is showing signs of life after posting his second straight double double. DraftKings has yet to adjust his price based on that production, so he only needs 30.5 FP to justify his current tag tonight.

 

Value:  Trevor Booker is still very cheap at $3400 and the Wizards don’t have many other options to turn to at PF.

 

Reggie Evans could continue to see playing time alongside Cousins, and would be a huge value play if Boogie gets into trouble again. At $3200 he’s worth a look in GPP formats.

 

Center

 

DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) vs. MIL: $9400

 

Assuming he can stay on the floor, and that should be easier considering he only has to guard Zaza Pachulia, Cousins should finally exceed his relatively discounted price tag tonight. The Bucks are one of the worst interior defensive teams in the league, and Enes Kanter just bullied them for 27 PTs and 11 REB on Monday Night. Boogie is a far more talented player than Kanter and uses a ridiculously high 32.7% of Kings offensive possessions, so he should pile up all sorts of stats on the road tonight.

 

Robin Lopez (POR) vs. ATL: $6000

 

LaMarcus Aldridge is still limited by a groin injury and Lopez is playing great ball over the last two weeks. He’s basically only going to contribute with REB, PTs and a block or two, but that makes him a solid safe play at this price. The Hawks may get Pero Antic and/or Paul Millsap back tonight, but they still have an undersized front line that will get dominated on the boards and if Elton Brand is starting, you can feel very safe about deploying Lopez.

 

Value: Samuel Dalembert is a huge gamble at $4500, but the Nuggets have been outrebounded by tall centers at every turn and he could turn in a surprising performance tonight.

 

Amare Stoudemire is the best punt option below 4K as he may draw the start against Minnesota’s Bruise Brothers and is a serious bargain at $3,300 despite his minutes cap.

 

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 


Edited by Scott Atkins, 05 March 2014 - 08:48 AM.





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