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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.7.14


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 07 March 2014 - 08:19 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.7.14

 

 

If you haven't tried playing Daily NBA you're missing out. While production in Fantasy Football is extremely unpredictable, basketball is close to a science when it comes to Daily Fantasy Sports, and there's no better place to play it then DraftKings.

 

 

No other DFS site can equal the size of Kings' pools and payouts, and you can get started by playing $2, $1 or even $0.25 games HERE. Who knows, you may turn that $2 entry fee into a $500 payout if you do enough research, that's how I made my bankroll and now I'm free rolling with over a $1,000 of winnings.

 

They will match your initial deposit ($100 deposit = $100 bonus) over time and get you started with a free ticket to the $2 guaranteed prize pool. Now's a great time to get started with huge College Basketball games later this month and Daily MLB action starting in April.

 

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 

 

 

Tonight, Friday March 7, 2014

 

Games to Target:

 

·      Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (-8.5) – O/U = 225 The Lakers headline this column despite setting a franchise record for futility with a 48-point loss to the team they share an arena with, and if they have any sense of pride they will bounce back in Denver tonight. If you believe they just don’t have the talent, it would be much safer to target the Nuggets SLU and the Lakers younger players, i.e. Ty Lawson, Wilson Chandler, Kenneth Faried and Kent Bazemore, Xavier Henry and Jodie Meeks.

 

This O/U is high, but reasonable considering the Lakers are coughing up 125.5 PPG over their last four contests. Every Nuggets player has a fantastic matchup and this game should be played at a blistering pace. Pau Gasol is the most expensive Laker but he has the best chance to keep his team competitive by exploiting an undersized Nuggets frontcourt that coughs up the 4th most FPPG (51.45) to opposing centers over the last two weeks.

 

 

·      Portland Trailblazers @ Dallas Mavericks (-1.5) O/U = 218.5 It’s surprising to see the Mavericks favored against an elite offensive team like the Blazers, but they are better at home. Monta Ellis has performed slightly better in Dallas this season while Dirk Nowitzki has much better splits and is shooting a fantastic 52.7% from the floor while scoring 23.1 PPG at home.

 

The Blazers lead the league in scoring but allow the 6th most PPG as well, so offensive-minded players should benefit on both ends of the floor tonight. This could be the game LaMarcus Aldridge finds his stride and Damian Lillard is always a threat to take over in close games down the stretch. Nic Batum has been rebounding the ball at an alarming rate recently but his price is rising fast and Shawn Marion matches up well with the lanky SF, so I’d prefer gambling on Wes Matthews or Robin Lopez as safe mid-tier plays.

 

·      Detroit Pistons @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-9) O/U = 217

Like Portland, Minnesota is in the top 10 in PPG scored and PPG allowed, and play at a breakneck pace. Detroit allows the 6th most PPG (103.4) this season and is giving up a whopping 108 PPG since the all-star break, so the Wolves should bounce back from a loss to the Knicks with a big outpouring of offense. Kevin Love will not be highly owned after his dud, but he could easily break 60 DK points if this game remains close. Kevin Martin is highly risky, as is Ricky Rubio, but both of those guards could find plenty of openings against the undisciplined Pistons.

 

Detroit’s backcourt is an absolute mess with Brandon Jennings hobbled and Rodney Stuckey trading productive nights with Will Bynum. Stuckey and Kyle Singler are both decent value plays considering they’re getting around 30 MPG. Josh Smith is slumbering but is capable of putting up huge numbers against a team like Minnesota if his shot is falling and Andre Drummond is a lock for big time rebounding numbers, but he might be too pricey for this particular matchup.

 

 

 

 

The Little Things:

 

·      The Utah Jazz only score 91.6 PPG on the road this season. They’re a young team that may not be able to rise to the occasion in MSG tonight and have very little inside presence with Derrick Favors clearly hobbled by a hip injury. That makes Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler solid safe plays, but low-upside GPP plays in the event this game is out of hand by the 4th quarter.

·      Paul Pierce was overcome with emotion in his first return to Boston this season, but should be more business-like tonight. His presence and a growing rivalry between the two franchises could create an elevated atmosphere that brings more out of the performances of players like Jared Sullinger, Rajon Rondo, and Pierce himself.

·      Joakim Noah had a gigantic game against the Knicks, dropped a huge dud against the Nets and immediately bounced back with another triple double against the Pistons. This seems to be a trend that indicates he will only put up huge lines against undisciplined defensive teams, and considering how stout Memphis is on that end of the floor, it would be a surprise to see him approach 10 AST again.

 

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

Point Guard

 

Ty Lawson (DEN) vs. LAL: $7300

 

DraftKings is notoriously slow to update salaries, and Lawson has slipped through the cracks, as his price is only $100 higher than it was on Wednesday. At $7200 he exceeded value by producing 42 FPs against the Mavs, and couldve been even more productive if the game hadnt gotten out of hand late. Tonight he is the primary facilitator in the most appealing game of the slate, and takes on a Lakers team that has been gutted by PGs for 42.83 FPPG (4th most) this season. He will be highly owned for good reason.

 

Kemba Walker (CHA) vs. CLE: $7700

 

Kemba has been struggling with his shot and his price is dropping, but he had a decent game against the league’s best defense on Wednesday and gets a fantastic matchup with a Cavs team that surrenders the 3rd most FPPG (43.31) to opposing PGs this season. Cleveland’s defense is notably worse away from home as they cough up 104 PPG on the road this season, and Kemba is worth a look in GPPs in case he turns it around and drops a 60 FP game out of the blue.

 

 

Values:  Mo Williams continues to play well off the bench for the highest scoring team in the NBA. He could provide solid returns at $4600.

 

Ray McCallum is getting plenty of playing time and out producing Ben McLemore in Sacramento. Give him a look at just $3300.

 

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. SAC: $8100

 

Sometimes you have to ride the hot hand, and DeRozan is scorching with per game averages of 33 PTs, 6 AST and 4 REB while playing a whopping 46.3 MPG over his last three appearances. Those numbers are slightly skewed by a 3OT win over the Wizards, but his Usage Rate is very high these days and only growing while Kyle Lowry is limited by an ankle injury and Terrence Ross is still sidelined by an ankle sprain. The Kings are downright awful defensively and allow the MOST FPPG by far (51.6) to opposing SGs over the last two weeks, so even though DeRozan disappointed when these teams met in Sacramento a month ago, he should be able to produce a big line at home tonight.

 

Tyreke Evans (NOP) vs. MIL: $7200

 

Leaving Tyreke out of your LU is almost certainly going to burn you tonight, as he’s posted per game averages of 24.3 PTs, 8.6 REB, and 8 AST over his last three appearances. He's played 40+ minutes and dropped 40+ FPs in each of those outings as he’s clearly enjoying running with the starting unit. Brian Roberts is not a first-string PG, so facilitating responsibilities have fallen on Evans, and when he takes on a Bucks team that just surpassed the Jazz for the honors of worst defensive rating in the NBA, Tyreke should pile up plenty of points and assists. His price hasn’t risen to uncomfortable heights yet and he’s a must-play in a premium matchup.

 

Values: Gary Neal may not start, but should be the primary beneficiary with Gerald Henderson inactive tonight. At $3200 you just need 19 FPs from Neal to keep your LU on pace for 300 FP.

 

Jerryd Bayless is still a solid play with Avery Bradley and Gerald Wallace out. He didn’t meet value at $4200 on Wednesday, but the entire Celtics team should bounce back from that embarrassment in an emotionally charged game tonight.

 

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Rudy Gay (TOR) vs. SAC: $8100

 

Revenge games are right up there with bobble-head nights and birthdays in terms of DFS myths. Players tend to perform better when they have some extra motivation, but there is of course no statistical correlation to prove that fact. Gay played great in his first grudge match with the Raptors, finishing with 24 PTs, 10 REB and 51 DraftKings points in 43 minutes. The coach realizes these games are important to him, his teammates will feed him the ball, and with this contest to be held in Toronto, Rudy may be motivated to perform well if he gets booed. The Raptors are solid defensively, but SF is definitely a weak point for them and they could be exposed on the wing if Terrence Ross is unable to suit up tonight.

 

 

Wilson Chandler (DEN) vs. LAL: $5700

 

Chandler is playing exponentially better now that Ty Lawson is back. Hes averaging 23 PTs, 7.5 REB, 1.5 STL and 2.5 3PTM in the two games Lawson has played this month, and could continue that torrid pace in a fast-paced matchup tonight. The Lakers give up the MOST FPPG (47.61) to opposing SFs over the last two weeks and are playing very high scoring games recently. Chandler exceeded his price tag with 33.25 FP in his last outing, and should do that again with a value threshold of 34.5 FPs tonight.

 

Values: Kent Bazemore remains underpriced at $4600. His floor has been around 20 FP and he’s capable of breaking 40 FPs in this juicy matchup.

 

Marvin Williams is playing more minutes when Derrick Favors struggles. At $3300 he’s an intriguing play in GPP formats as he could get hot out of nowhere against an undisciplined Knicks team.

 

 

Power Forward

 

Pau Gasol (LAL) vs. DEN: $8400

 

Pau let a lot of people down after he came out guns blazing against the Clippers, and then proceeded to walk around the court shrugging his shoulders as the rest of the team got thoroughly whipped by the superior Clippers. The Nuggets, at 26-34, are not nearly as good a team and the Lakers have to try and bounce back from an embarrassing loss in Denver tonight. That starts with Pau, who has burned the Nuggets with per game averages of 25 PTs, 11 REB, and 4 AST in two meetings this season. You may have concerns about the veteran on the second half of a B2B, but he played just 25 minutes in the blowout and actually excels on 0 days rest this year with per game averages of 19.6 PTs, 10.6 REB, 2.9 AST, 1.9 BLK and 50% FG shooting while playing 32.5 MPG. He’s not going to be heavily owned tonight but could definitely put up 50 DK points.

 

 

Jared Sullinger (BOS) vs. BKN: $5500

 

The DFS community may have forgotten that Sullinger had 7 straight double doubles and his price rose all the way to a $7400 on DraftKings before he dropped a dud before the all-star game as he was playing with the flu. The fact that he sat out three games with a concussion and has struggled to find his groove in his last two games makes him even more affordable, and its only a matter of time before he ousts Kris Humphries, Kelly Olynyk or Brandon Bass and asserts his status as the Celtics best big man. Hes only a GPP play at this point since you cant trust Brad Stevens to give him a full slate of minutes, but sometimes you have to use players that will fly under the radar in large pools and Sully could turn up his game as the Celtics host the undersized Nets tonight.

 

Values:  Jeff Adrien has been producing 20+ FPs while playing around 20 MPG over his last three outings. At $3600 hes a safe value play.

 

Andrei Kirilenko has to battle Andray Blatche, Mirza Teletovic, and Mason Plumlee for minutes even with Kevin Garnett out, but at $3400 he has a good chance of meeting value in about 20 minutes of playing time.

 

 

Center

 

Al Jefferson (CHA) vs. CLE: $9000

 

After posting two huge games and tallying a combined 118.5 DK points against two of the best defenses in the NBA, Big Al and the Bobcats get to host a Cavs team that gives up a sizeable 104.6 PPG on the road. His individual matchup is particularly enticing, as Anderson Varejao will not suit up for tonights tilt and Spencer Hawes is an awful defender. Jefferson doesnt always rebound enough to post a double double, but 28 PTs and 8 REB is a reasonable floor for him tonight and his price tag is reasonable enough to fit another stud in your LU.

 

Joakim Noah (CHI) vs. MEM: $8200

 

Noah is averaging 7.2 APG over his last thirteen appearances..7.2! That would be the 9th highest average in the NBA right now and it includes the 1 AST, 6 TO dud he dropped against the Nets on Monday. He may have been hampered by an ankle injury during that game but put any concerns to rest by posting yet another triple double in Wednesdays win over the Pistons. Hes a legitimate MVP candidate right now and cant be written off regardless of the matchup, especially since Marc Gasol is not the same defensive player that he was last season.

 

Values: Tyson Chandler is a relative value at $6500 if you cant fit any of the top centers in your LU. Utah is a bottom 10 rebounding team and gives up 45 FPPG to centers, while Chandler has been on a tear recently and DraftKings has not adjusted his price accordingly.

 

Reggie Evans has found a role with the Kings and is just $3600. He should continue to earn minutes by playing with tons of effort and will be needed in a physical battle with the Raptors.

 

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier


Edited by nweitzer7, 07 March 2014 - 08:20 AM.





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