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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.8.14

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#1 nweitzer7



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Posted 08 March 2014 - 08:55 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.8.14



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Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

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$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 




Tonight, Saturday March 8, 2014




Games to Target:


  •       Utah Jazz (-5.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers: O/U – 208.5

This game doesn’t project to be particularly high scoring, but features two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA slugging it out with a rare chance at a win. The Jazz haven’t been favored by this much perhaps all season, and the 76ers have to be motivated to break their current 15-game losing streak, so this game may be one of the few contests to go down to the wire tonight.


Utah is average in terms of PPG allowed (100.6) but rank 28th in terms of defensive efficiency. They could get caught up in the 76ers league-leading pace and players like Trey Burke, Gordon Hayward and Marvin Williams would benefit from a track meet type of game. The 76ers are a two-man show with Thaddeus Young and MCW getting all the volume and minutes. The rest of their players are fringe options that are best utilized in GPP formats, but James Anderson seems to have a steady role and could exceed value in tonight.


  •       Washington Wizards (-5.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks: O/U – 206

Good God, I would not want to watch this entire game, but the fantasy implications are somewhat enticing with the road team favored once again. Contrary to their seasonal stats, these two teams are finding their stride offensively and the Wizards have scored 100+ points in five straight contests. You never really know what to expect from Milwaukee, or who will play under the fickle eye of Larry Drew, but they could definitely compete for four quarters at home tonight.


The Wizards are pretty solid on the interior, but John Wall and Bradley Beal do not grade out as plus defenders. Look for Brandon Knight to see a lot of opportunities on offense, while Ersan Ilyasova looks to produce after a one-game suspension. Jeff Adrien has earned more playing time with an impressive performance last night, at that will probably come at John Henson or Zaza Pachulia’s expense. The Wizards starting five are all enticing options tonight as Marcin Gortat has a big advantage over Zaza Pachulia, Trevor Ariza is rolling right now, and John Wall should dissect the Bucks undisciplined defense.


  • Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Clippers (-13): O/U – 217

The 13-point spread is intimidating, but if Jamal Crawford is inactive I think the Clippers have a tough time putting away a feisty Hawks team that is desperate to compete. Paul Millsap is back in the lineup and looked very rusty against Golden State last night, but he’s worth consideration at just $8600 in the event he finds a rhythm. Jeff Teague and DeMarre Carroll had another disappointing game in a blowout loss, but could provide decent fantasy returns in what will likely be a fast-paced game.


The Clippers have one of the most reliable offenses in DFS right now, and if Crawford is out, the equation becomes that much simpler. Darren Collison is playing well above his $4900 price tag these days, Chris Paul should be able to get the better of Teague and Blake and DeAndre will dominate the Hawks in the paint. I’m hopping off the Matt Barnes train with a price tag of $5700 but the other four players should hit value even if the Clips manage to pull away in the second half.  




 The Little Things:


  • The Utah Jazz only score 91.6 PPG on the road this season, and they average just 92.5 PPG on the second night of B2B sets. Normally that would raise concerns of a blowout, but when they take on the worst team in the league in Philly tonight, it likely means a close game.
  • The Magic have been off since Wednesday and their defense is somehow worse with extra rest. They allow 102.4 PPG on 2 days rest and a whopping 105.3 PPG on 3 days rest. The Spurs are likely going to crush them in San Antonio tonight.
  • Memphis held Al Jefferson to single digits for the first time since Jan 10 as they throttled the Bobcats in Charlotte three weeks ago. Jefferson is rolling and will likely have a better game tonight, but may not meet value on his $9000 price tag.








Player Recommendations:


Point Guard


Michael Carter-Williams (PHI) vs. UTA: $7800


Its been a long time since Ive even consider MCW, as hes basically hit the Rookie Wall and been effective for the past few months. He finally broke out with a decent game against Orlando as he produced 41.25 DK points against the Magic and the fact that he missed 13 FGA and turned it over 8 times only marginally affected his value on DraftKings. The key on Kings is volume, and the 76ers have very few options aside from their rookie PG. He has a legitimate size advantage over Trey Burke, put up 45.75 DK points against the Jazz in Utah last month, and could exceed that number, as this may be Philadelphias best chance to win a game at home for the rest of the season.


Trey Burke (UTA) vs. PHI: $5800


Burke is a much cheaper version of Kyrie Irving, in that he can exceed value by a wide margin, but is not a player to depend upon. That being said, the odds of a team struggling offensively against the 76ers are slim to none right now, and Burke should pile up points and dimes as the Jazz put up at least a 100 on the scoreboard in Philly tonight. Hes playing __ MPG over his last __ and his back issues seem to be behind him, so its worth deploying the former Michigan standout in tournament formats tonight.



Values:  Darren Collison is a great play at $4900 as long as Jamal Crawford (calf) is still inactive tonight. If Crawford returns Collison is just a safe play.


The odds of San Antonio blowing out the Magic at home are pretty good and that would inflate the playing time of Patty Mills, who could exceed the value of his $4100 price tag regardless.




Shooting Guard


Kyrie Irving (CLE) vs. NYK: $9100


Irving is nowhere near as reliable as Chris Paul or John Wall, the two most expensive floor generals tonight, but for $9100, he has as much upside as anyone and is always a tempting tournament play. The Knicks PnR defense is awful, and Kyrie has been playing much better with the offensive-minded Spencer Hawes in the lineup. Hes also much better at home, with per game averages of 23 PTs and 7.4 AST compared to 20.1 PTs and 5.3 AST on the road. Theres a chance he dices up the Knicks all night on his way to a monster game, but I wouldnt advise using him in 50/50 or H2H formats necessarily.


Raymond Felton (NYK) vs. CLE: $5500


Felton is a prideful player, and he’s shown some flashes of motivation in the wake of his legal scandal. If he’s getting burned by Irving on one end of the floor he could look to exploit Kyrie’s lackluster defense on the other end, and he should be well rested after last night’s blowout win. The Cavs surrender the 3rd most FPPG (43.31) to opposing PGs because of Irving’s defensive indifference, so Felton is an intriguing mid-tier play tonight.



Values: If Jamal Crawford dresses tonight I would almost certainly prefer to play him at just $5000. Atlanta is awful at defending the 3PT line and Jamal should light his former team up if he can go.


Tim Hardaway Jr. is always capable of getting hot and although the Knicks SG rotation is crowded, he’s worth a look at $4100.





Small Forward


Gordon Hayward (UTA) vs. PHI: $7500


Hawyard is usually a dicey play, but you cant really go wrong with a starter that is lining up against the leagues worst defense. Babyface shot a pathetic 3 of 17 from the field when the Jazz hosted the 76ers last month, but still managed to score 17 PTs thanks to 11 of 12 FT shooting and added 7 REB and 7 AST to finish with 42.25 DK points. Theres not a high likelihood that he shoots that poorly again and his ability to pile up peripheral stats in a fast paced game makes him an appealing option in all formats tonight.


Arron Afflalo (ORL) vs. SAS: $6400


Afflalo didn’t look too rusty in his return from a five-game absence as he produced a solid 26.5 DK points in 31 minutes against Houston. He’s not really a GPP play at this point considering his ceiling is around 40 FPs, but he should be one of the few productive players for the Magic in San Antonio tonight as his style of play is easily translatable to any game situation. Victor Oladipo and Jameer Nelson aren’t healthy and the Magic may not be able to remain competitive in San Antonio tonight, but Afflalo should approach the value of his price tag.




Values: James Anderson is starting at SF for the 76ers and got hot with 20 Pts on 6 of 12 shooting from downtown during Tuesday’s blowout loss. He’s worth a gamble at $4400 in case his jumper is falling again.


Chris Douglas-Roberts put two great games together and may have earned a spot in the Bobcats’ rotation when Gerald Henderson comes back. Henderson won’t play tonight and CDR is a steal at $3200



Power Forward


Carmelo Anthony (NYK) vs. CLE: $10,000


Melo continues to roll and took most of last night off even while on the floor, as the Jazz simply could not compete on the road. When the Knicks travel to Cleveland tonight, Anthony should be needed to score much more often, and he will likely attempt 20-25 FGs. He’s worth the money in the DraftKings scoring system he’s a volume shooter, and is capable of going off against a Cavs team that coughs up the 3rd most FPPG (39.55) to opposing SFs this season.



Thaddeus Young (PHI) vs. UTA: $7500


Young can’t be ignored just because he did next to nothing in 23 minutes against a far superior Thunder team on Tuesday night. The game before that he put up 46.5 DK points in a fair fight with the Magic, and gets another decent matchup with a Jazz team that ranks 28th in terms of defensive efficiency this season. The Sixers have also had 3 days to recover from Tuesday’s drubbing, and Young has thrived on 3+ days rest this season with per game averages of 21.4 PTs and 7.6 REB while shooting 51.3% from the field. He should get a ton of minutes and volume in what should be a close game at home tonight.


Values:  Jeff Adrien was outstanding during last night’s narrow loss and finished with 45 DK points. He takes a slight hit with the return of Ilyasova, but his price hasn’t moved from $3600 and he should play 20-30 minutes tonight.


Drew Gooden played much better than Trevor Booker and could steal a lot of minutes at PF, if not earn a spot in the Wizards SLU tonight. He has a great matchup with the Bucks and is available at the minimum $3000.





Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. ATL: $9400


Griffin is unquestionably one of the top options tonight and is eligible at the center position as well. His price didnt rise much since he only produced around 40 FPs in limited minutes during Thursdays absurd blowout win. The Hawks should provide a stiffer challenge tonight now that Paul Millsap is back and Atlanta has been coughing up 43.64 FPPG to opposing PFs over the last two weeks, so if he finally gets a full slate of minutes, Blake could put up huge fantasy totals.



DeAndre Jordan (LAC) vs. ATL: $7600


It sort of defies logic, but Jordan and Blake Griffin both have huge games on the same night very often, as one of them controls the boards while the other gets out in transition. Lob City is back in full effect with Chris Paul at the helm and both of these big men should feast against a Hawks team that is desperately undersized up front. The Hawks are giving up the 5th most RPG (16.64) to opposing centers over the last two weeks and Jordan leads the league with 13.9 RPG this season. Its an easy equation that should lead to plenty of DK points for DJA and create a very good chance he meets his value threshold tonight.


Values: Henry Sims will probably start for the 76ers and while he isn’t likely to break 20 FPs, 15-18 DK points is a decent total for a player that costs just $3400


Pero Antic is working his way back to game speed and could play more than the 17 minutes he logged last night if the Clippers run away in the second half. At the minimum $3000 he’s an intriguing punt play and a solid offensive player.



Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7


Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight! 

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)


$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool


Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier








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