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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.9.14


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 09 March 2014 - 08:50 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.9.14

 

 

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Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

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Today, Sunday March 9, 2014

 

 

 

 

 

Games to Target:

 

·       Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans (-2): O/U – 214

The fact that the Pelicans are favored at home speaks volumes as to how well Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans are playing in their last few contests. Both studs are in play at their current price on DraftKings and could have huge games in a fast-paced matchup.

 

There are more affordable options on the Nuggets including Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler. I would tend to fade Kenneth Faried at $7100 since most of that inflation came from facing the pillow-soft Lakers. Ty Lawson is still a safe play with upside at $8000 as Brian Roberts will not be able to contain him on the perimeter.

 

·        Oklahoma City Thunder (-11.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers: O/U – 228

It’s too easy when the Lakers play, just start the opposing studs and wait for the points to rain on down. Durant and Westbrook should have great games even if they play 3 quarters and Serge Ibaka is a solid 50/50 play. If you think the Thunder will cover this sizeable spread, give Reggie Jackson and to a lesser extent, Derek Fisher, Caron Butler and Jeremy Lamb a look for garbage time.

 

The Lakers are shuffling their lineups and that creates a lot of value plays. Pau Gasol is hobbled yet again and might get the early hook if this game gets out of hand, but the younger guys like Ryan Kelly, Xavier Henry and Jordan Farmar should get plenty of run and produce in D’Antoni’s fast-paced system. Jodie Meeks will also play a ton of minutes, and Wes Johnson will do his best to contain Durant and potentially fire back on the offensive end.

 

·        Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors (-7.5): O/U – 211.5

This is a newly forming rivalry out west and there should be plenty of fantasy production on both sides. I’d preach caution about expecting a repeat from Gerald Green, but his price hasn’t moved at $6K so he’s worth a GPP play. Dragic should have a better game than he did on Thursday, and P.J. Tucker is a great 50/50 play as long as he’s playing 40+ minutes and boarding up. Both Morris twins are solid mid-tier values, especially if Plumlee sits.

 

A couple of Warriors are available for relative discounts because they’ve blown out their last two opponents. Andrew Bogut seems to be getting healthy and would’ve posted a huge double double if they needed him out there against the Hawks on Saturday. Steph Curry didn’t seem affected by “leg soreness” in limited minutes against the Hawks, and he’s killed the Suns all season.

 

 The Little Things:

 

·      If you play the Early contests, don’t get caught up with the Bulls-Heat matchup. Miami has been spreading their scoring around and Tom Thibeadou is obviously a defensive mastermind. Joakim Noah is really the only appealing player in this game at $8200.

·      Remember that Durant had 42 PTs and Westbrook posted a triple double in a huge blowout over the 76ers. The Lakers are slightly more competent and could even force those studs to play four quarters.

·      The Warriors are just 6-5 on the second night of B2B sets, but Curry has been electric with 0 days rest. Expect a close game and a shootout to close the night.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

Point Guard

 

Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. LAL: $9400

 

This is a hefty price to pay for a man on a minutes limit in a likely blowout, but as mentioned above, he is capable of a quick triple double and the Lakers don’t have the personnel to slow him down. The California native has solid splits of 21.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 7.9 APG in 18 meetings with the Lakers in his career, and should flirt with a triple double against this bag of bolts.

 

Ty Lawson (DEN) vs. NOP: $8000

 

Lawson is playing like the best PG in the league over his last three games with averages of 27 PTs and 11.6 AST during that span. Granted he had an easy task against the Lakers on Friday, but the Pelicans are also porous against opposing PGs as they allow the 5th most FPPG (42.77) to the position over the last two weeks. If this game remains close I’d expect Lawson to exceed value again.

 

 

Values:  Jordan Farmar should do his best to keep the Lakers competitive at home and will match up with the Thunder’s second unit. He’s worth a look at $5000.

 

Ray McCallum is a safe punt play at $3400 as he’s played 22+ minutes and produced 15+ FPs in six straight for the Kings.

 

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Steph Curry (GSW) vs. PHO: $9700

 

You have to be excited to deploy Steph in a game that is almost guaranteed to remain competitive. He’s rested for two straight contests as the Warriors dismantled the Celtics and Hawks, but should be ready to go against a team that he’s burned for a 30-point game, triple double, and 28-point game in 3 meetings this season. Goran Dragic has been roasted by opposing PGs recently as he plays on a bum ankle, and Curry should get double digit AST while lighting up Oracle Arena with his silky smooth jumper.

 

Goran Dragic (PHO) vs. GSW: $7700

 

There’s no reason to fade Dragic on the other side of this matchup, as he will also have an easy time getting past Curry. He absolutely roasted the Warriors for 34 PTs on 10 of 13 shooting last month, and the ascendency of Markieff Morris and Gerald Green should raise his AST totals tonight. Don’t sleep on the sleeping Dragon.

 

 

 Values: Randy Foye is a relative value at $4900.

 

Xavier Henry clearly usurped Kent Bazemore’s role last game and could get more minutes tonight, for a player priced at $3200 he has a great floor/ceiling combo.

  

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Tyreke Evans (NOP) vs. DEN: $7000

 

After yet another solid outing, this time against the Bucks, Evans price actually went down $200. Playing him again tonight is pretty much a no-brainer as he faces a Nuggets team that he nearly posted a triple double against (19 PTs, 7 REB, 10 AST) earlier this season. Denver plays with tremendous pace and this game could easily go over the combined line of 224 PTs. I would expect Evans to have a lot to do with powering the Pelicans offense in a tough home game.

 

 

Wilson Chandler (DEN) vs. NOP: $5700

 

On the other side of the ball, Chandler will aggressively attack Evans’ lackluster defense and follow his coaches’ advice to shoot the ball more. That kind of chucking attitude raises caution flags on efficiency sites, but volume is key on DraftKings and we don’t worry about how many FGs he might miss. Chandler is slightly preferable to Randy Foye because his rebounding and defensive numbers should be higher, and he’s locked into big minutes for an offensive juggernaut with Ty Lawson running the show.

 

 

Values: P.J. Tucker attempted just 3 shots in 43 minutes because Gerald Green was unconscious against the Thunder on Thursday. Tucker still nearly out produced Goran Dragic and is worth a look at $4500.

 

You could swing for the fences with Terrence Ross at $4000. He had a great game after missing some time with an ankle injury and a matchup with the Wolves is very appealing.

 

 

 

Power Forward

 

Anthony Davis (NYK) vs. DEN: $9500

 

There are a ton of appealing options at PF and C today, but Davis has the best combination of price and upside in my opinion. He’s suddenly caught fire with two huge performances against the hapless Lakers and Bucks, and while Denver is a better all-around team than those two bottom feeders, they do very little to contain opposing big men and are coughing up the 3rd most FPPG (45.57) to PFs this season. Look for Davis to eat glass and send back a few shots on his way to a solid double double.

 

 

Markieff Morris (PHO) vs. GSW: $5500

 

Kieff has a solid floor while Miles Plumlee is injured and is playing 30+ minutes regardless. Prior to Tuesday’s 9-point dud against the Clippers, Morris had scored in double figures in 19 straight games and remains under priced on DraftKings as he is not shy about putting up shots and rebounds well for his size. David Lee is not known for his defense and this should be a competitive game, so Morris is worth a look, especially in GPP formats, where he can blow up for a mid-tier price.

 

Values:  If Plumlee is inactive, Marcus Morris is also in play at $4300 and might be a GPP play regardless.

 

Ryan Kelly is apparently a member of the Lakers first unit again and is just $3800.

 

 

Center

 

LaMarcus Aldridge (POR) vs. HOU: $8800

 

I’ve glossed over the most expensive options at PF tonight because players like Aldridge have nearly as much potential as the Kevins (Love and Durant), but he’s available at a big discount right now. Something clicked for Aldridge in his last appearance as he dropped 30 PTs, 17 REB and a sizeable 61.75 DK points against the Mavericks. He burned the Rockets for 27 PTs and 20 REB earlier this season and the league leader in FGA should be needed to chuck a ton of shots in a high-scoring game tonight.

 

Joakim Noah (CHI) vs. MIA: $8200

 

If you don’t play Noah in the early games, you’ll probably regret it. The man hates the Heat and plays with extra passion (which is saying something) against the defending champs. He’s averaging 13 PTs, 13.7 REB and 2 BLK per game in three meetings with Miami this season and is on a tear right now, so another near triple double isn’t out of the question despite the defensive prowess of the Heat.

 

Values: It’s a revenge game for Reggie Evans as he heads back to Brooklyn to take on his former team. He’s been around a double double in three straight games as the Kings love his hustle and is available for just $3600.

 

Timofey Mozgov could be solid for the Nuggets and they will need him to match up with the size of A.Davis and Alexis Ajinca. He posted a solid line against the Lakers and is still just $3800.

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

 

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 






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