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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.10.14

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#1 nweitzer7



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Posted 10 March 2014 - 06:19 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.10.14



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Tonight, Monday March 10, 2014





Games to Target:


·       Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Bobcast (-4): O/U – 211

The Nuggets will almost always appear as a game to target because they play at an exciting pace and are pretty inept defensively. They’re now 3rd in the league in terms of pace and allow the 3rd most PPG (105.6), which often leads to fantasy production on both sides.


Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler remain solid as mid-tier options, while Ty Lawson continues to run the show. The Nuggets offense is centered around those perimeter players, which is where Charlotte is most vulnerable, so those are the players to target on that side of the ball. The Bobcats offense usually runs through Al Jefferson, and he should thrive in this matchup again. Kemba Walker is a big roll of the dice but could come through at home, where he is much better this season. Gary Neal and Chris Douglas-Roberts should remain intriguing punt plays if Gerald Henderson is inactive.




·        Orlando Magic (-1.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks: O/U – 203.5

These are two of the harder teams to read in the NBA. You never know if they’ll put up 80 or 110 points, and for the Bucks, you never know who is going to get the minutes and production. That being said, Khris Middleton and Jeff Adrien are playing very well for Larry Drew and are both cheaper and more trustworthy than John Henson and Ersan Ilyasova in my opinion. Brandon Knight can always come out of nowhere to post a huge line, but I wouldn’t give him much play considering Ramon Sessions and Nate Wolters steal his minutes and production.


Orlando’s rotation is much more consistent. Arron Afflalo and Tobias Harris are playing well and have had success in this matchup before. They would get a bigger boost if Victor Oladipo (ankle) is still unable to play tonight. Nikola Vucevic is almost guaranteed to post another double double against the Bucks soft frontline, and Mo Harkless is in play if Oladipo is out as well.




·        Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers (-9.5): O/U – 222

This is the game with the highest O/U of the night, and it should be more competitive than the 9.5-point spread suggests. Phoenix nearly defeated the Warriors in Oracle Arena last night, which is possibly the toughest place to play in the NBA, so they should remain competitive in Staples Center tonight. Goran Dragic is solid as ever and Gerald Green is really heating up. Markieff Morris will look to bounce back from a poor outing and Marcus Morris continues to play solid minutes and produce as well.


Watch for news about Jamal Crawford’s minutes because if he’s limited to 15-20 minutes again he’s not worth $5500. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin laid eggs in Phoenix last week, but are too talented to underwhelm in front of a home crowd tonight. DeAndre Jordan is a safe play once again as the league’s leading rebounder faces an undersized front line.


 The Little Things:


·      At this point in the season, teams like Utah, Milwaukee and especially Philadelphia are just going through the motions. Always be aware that blowouts are likely when they face solid teams on the road.

·      Paul Pierce and Andrei Kirilenko could miss tonight’s tilt with Toronto. That would lead to more minutes for Shaun Livingston and more FGA for Marcus Thornton, who just lit his old team up last night.

·      The Wizards allow 99.9 PPG on the road and at home this season and average just 0.8 PPG less away from home. While John Wall struggles on the road this season and may turn it over a number of times against the Heat, look for Marcin Gortat and Trevor Ariza to step up as Washington tries to prove they’re not playoff pretenders.  





Player Recommendations:


Point Guard


Ty Lawson (DEN) vs. CHA: $8000


Lawson came back to earth with 35.5 DK points against the Pelicans last night, which means his ownership percentage will be much lower tonight. If you can ignore one bad outing, he might pay off big against a Bobcats team that is coughing up the 5th most PPG (22.55) to opposing PGs over the last two weeks. Charlotte does not have much rim protection and Lawson should be able to score a bit easier as he has a good chance to break 40 DK points on the second half of a B2B set.  


Jeff Teague (ATL) vs. UTA: $6900


Teague and the Hawks were beaten badly in three straight games during their current road trip, but after facing the elite Warriors, Clippers, and Blazers, they now travel to Utah to face a rudderless Jazz squad. Trey Burke is both small and inexperienced, so look for Teague to run circles around him as he piles up PTs and AST tonight. The return of Paul Millsap and Pero Antic may curb his scoring a little, but the extra dimes should make up for it. Don’t fade Teague just because his team was blown out three games in a row as they have a great chance to matchup well with the Jazz.



Values:  For most of the game on Saturday, Tony Wroten was the number one offensive option for the Sixers and his price remains manageable at $4800. He has a chance to keep it rolling against the Knicks.


Shaun Livingston started again for the Nets last night and produced a solid 21.75 DK points. He’s very cheap for a starter at $3800 and could have success in a physical matchup with the Raptors.




Shooting Guard


Trevor Ariza (WAS) vs. MIA: $6800


Ariza has been on fire since he dropped 40 PTs on the Sixers a week and a half ago. He’s hit 21 of his last 31 3PT attempts (67%) and is always capable of piling up peripheral stats. Ariza produced 42.75 DK points against the Bucks on Saturday and could’ve done more damage if the game didn’t get out of hand early. The Wizards tend to play up to the competition this season and they will need a lot of production from Ariza to remain competitive in Miami tonight.


Gerald Green (PHO) vs. LAC: $6300


Green is raising eyebrows with his recent performance and he dropped another 26 PTs and 36 DK points in a tough matchup with the Warriors last night. The Most Improved Player of the Year candidate played 41.5 MPG and attempted 40 FGs over his last two appearances and will get another crack at a Clippers team against which he produced 30.5 DK points last week. His price is still manageable considering how often he’s shooting, and Eric Bledsoe’s return won’t affect his stock until at least Wednesday, so he’s worth GPP consideration.



Values: Alec Burks deserves more minutes for the Jazz and he may get them tonight. He produced 27.25 DK points against the woeful 76ers on Saturday and while the Hawks are obviously a better defense, he could still hit value on his $5200 price tag in this matchup.


Chris Douglas-Roberts should start as long as Gerald Henderson isn’t back for tonight’s tilt and his price is only up to $3700. He seems to have a decent floor and possess plenty of upside in a matchup with the fast-paced Nuggets.





Small Forward


LeBron James (MIA) vs. WAS: $10,600

LBJ and the Heat were stymied and frustrated by the Bulls’ incredible defense yesterday, which means you have to feel sorry for whomever they face next. James has really cooled off since the 61-point explosion last Monday, but now returns home and could decide to put the Heat on his back if the Wizards prove to be a legitimate test. He’s still only a GPP play because of his tendency to defer offensively at times, but LeBron could easily get back on track for a 3rd straight MVP award by posting a huge line tonight.



Tobias Harris (ORL) vs. MIL: $6700


Coming of the bench seemed to motivate Harris further on Saturday night as he turned in one of his best performances of the season and produced 41 DK points against the Spurs. He should be back in the SLU against his former team tonight and could have another solid performance against a Bucks team that surrenders the 3rd most FPPG (46.20) to opposing SFs over the last two weeks.




Khris Middleton is simply under priced at $4400. The Magic are vulnerable to SFs and he’s been scoring very consistently for the Bucks lately.



Power Forward


Carmelo Anthony (NYK) vs. PHI: $10,100


Melo is not a great GPP play tonight because there is almost no chance the 76ers can compete with anyone for four quarters. Philly actually did a decent job defending Anthony in two meetings this season as they held him to 23 PPG on 40.8% FG shooting. However, this current Sixers squad is ridiculously incompetent and Melo is in an offensive zone right now. He’s also been lighting it up in every home game for the last couple of months and will certainly produce solid FP totals if given limited minutes, and could blow up if the Sixers somehow keep this contest close.



Paul Millsap (ATL) vs. UTA: $7500


Millsap was very rusty after a 5-game absence as the Warriors and Clippers throttled the Hawks over the weekend, but he played 33 minutes in Saturday’s loss and seemed to find his stride as he produced 37.5 FPs. Now he returns to Utah in a matchup with his former team, and he’s more affordable on DraftKings than he has been since Al Horford went down for the season. It’s worth gambling on Millsap in GPPs for this price since he might find some extra motivation based on whether the home crowd boos or cheers him.



Values:  Amare Stoudemire continued to surprise by posting 34 DK points on the second half of a B2B set, now he gets the best matchup in the NBA and is still priced at $4500.


Drew Gooden has been extremely productive in limited minutes for the Wizards. He may be too old to play over 20 MPG but produced 26.75 FPs against the Bucks on Saturday and could pile up enough rebounds against the Heat to justify his $3300 price tag.





Al Jefferson (CHA) vs. DEN: $9200


Big Al could be the play of the night once again as he takes on a Nuggets team that has no been torched by skilled big men all season, including a 71.5 DK-point performance by Anthony Davis last night. Kenneth Faried and J.J. Hickson don’t have the length to contest Jefferson’s baby hook shot, while Timofey Mozgov is way too slow-footed to deal with his array of post moves. That’s why Jefferson went off for 35 PTs, 11 REB, and 55.25 DK points in a previous meeting with Denver. He could improve on those numbers at home tonight as the Nuggets force more offense out of the inconsistent Bobcats.


Nikola Vucevic (ORL) vs. MIL: $8000


VucciMane is nearly a guaranteed double double every time he steps out on the floor, and even though he lacks the upside of other centers, he is a safe bet to break 30 FP against a team like Milwaukee. He totaled just 31 PTs and 15 REB in two meetings with the Bucks last month, but that was right after his return from a lengthy absence and he’s rolling along steadily now. There’s no reason to expect another lackluster performance against a Bucks team that coughs up the 3rd most FPPG (46.96) to opposing centers this season.



Values: Tyson Chandler has almost the same floor/ceiling combo as Vucevic for $1,500 less. At $6500 he’s worth a play in Double Ups against the terrible 76ers.


Pero Antic suddenly logged 30 minutes for the Hawks on Saturday and was productive enough to justify another start. He’s a near must play at $3400.


Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7


Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)


$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier

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