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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.11.14

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#1 nweitzer7



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Posted 11 March 2014 - 06:22 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.11.14



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$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 




Tonight, Tuesday March 11, 2014








Games to Target:


·       Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5): O/U – 216

This should be one of the most exciting games of the night and is very likely going to best a conservative O/U of 216. The Rockets have been on fire since the calendar flipped to 2014, in fact they have the best record in the NBA since New Years Day, and the Thunder have suddenly become more offensive oriented than focused on defense. The loss of Thabo Sefolosha and Kendrick Perkins is making a big difference for this team, while they also struggle to put teams away when Russ Westbrook turns it over 5+ times.


The most appealing players in this game are the studs, i.e. Durant, Westbrook and Harden. Dwight Howard has some appeal as a safe play with no Perkins to guard him, while Terrence Jones and Jeremy Lin are mid-tier GPP plays that could step up for Houston. Reggie Jackson should get serviceable minutes for OKC, as will Caron Butler for a very cheap price, but neither player is guaranteed much production. Perry Jones will likely start but has been such an awful defender that he many not last long, if KD guards Harden he will have to switch over to Chandler Parsons, and that boosts the former Gator’s stock.


·        Sacramento Kings @ Detroit Pistons (-3.5): O/U – 213

Someone has to be favored in this contest, but both teams are in absolute tailspins in the last couple weeks. They’re both in the bottom 10 in terms of defensive rating and cough up the 4th and 5th most PPG respectively. Detroit just gave up 118 PTs and huge fantasy totals to a usually anemic Celtics offense, while the Kings were beaten like they stole something on their road trip over the weekend. Now they head to Detroit and look to get back on track, which means potential bounce back games for Isaiah Thomas and Rudy Gay. All DeMarcus Cousins has to do is avoid foul trouble to post 50+ DK PTs, while Ray McCallum and Reggie Evans get enough playing time to serve as punt plays.


For the Pistons, Andre Drummond is on a rebounding tear and it doesn’t matter who he faces. He leads the league in uncontested boards and you have to believe Cousins is going to watch him pull down plenty of those. Greg Monroe is playing decent ball lately, but has very limited upside considering how redundant he is on this team, while Josh Smith is capable of lighting it up or destroying an LU. Their backcourt situation is a mess, but Will Bynum is both the cheapest option and has the most upside considering price tonight.





·        Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors:

The line seems to be dependent on word about a continued minutes limit for Steph Curry, who is probably too risky even for GPPs as long as he’s playing less than 30 MPG. Andrew Bogut also has a good matchup, but is hobbled, so that leaves David Lee as the top dog for GSW and he’s at a relatively affordable $7700.


The Mavericks don’t play much defense, and although the Warriors can lock down when they need to, they often play very high scoring games. That means plenty of points and not much else for Dirk Nowitzki, a fast-pace could benefit Shawn Marion, and Monta Ellis gets another chance to burn his former team as Golden State has shut him down for just 12.5 PPG on 27.8% FG shooting in two meetings this season.




 The Little Things:


·      Chicago hosts the Spurs in what should be another playoff-type atmosphere. San Antonio runs such a deep rotation with everyone healthy that none of their players are necessarily worth a look, but a heightened atmosphere usually means more Joakim Noah energy plays and Taj Gibson taking over for the slow-footed Carlos Boozer.

·      The Pacers are favored by 12 over the Celtics at home tonight, and could easily blow them out. However, Rondo is getting healthy and Boston may have more fight in them then you’d think, don’t fade Pacers starters indiscriminately.

·      Portland visits Memphis in a battle between one of the best offensive and best defensive teams in the NBA. The Grizzlies are favored by three and that means defense would win out, so I’d be very hesitant to use any Blazers tonight.





Player Recommendations:


Point Guard


Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. HOU: $9500


Clearly the most expensive PG on the board tonight is a logical choice, but many people may fade Westbrook after his 8 TO performance on Sunday afternoon and the fact that he faces the nagging defense of Pat Beverley may dissuade even more. Yet Westbrook is clearly regaining his aggressiveness and the Rockets are playing extremely high-scoring games these days, so I’d expect enough volume to compensate for his tendency to turn the ball over. He was inactive during the Thunder’s previous meeting with Houston, and Kevin Durant led OKC to a 117-86 win. Tonight the scoring should be spread out and a star like Westbrook should shine.



Isaiah Thomas (SAC) vs. DET: $7200


The Pistons have surrendered 232 PTs in their past two contests, and allowed Rajon Rondo and Ricky Rubio to dissect their disinterested defense for a combined 27 AST. Thomas should be the next beneficiary of Detroit’s lack of discipline on that end as he scores and dishes his way to a solid double double. Brandon Jennnings wasn’t a good defender before he injured his toe, and now that he’s hobbled he seems to be exploitable on a nightly basis.



Values:  Will Bynum could end up taking forward for Jennings and has been playing late in the game alongside him in any case. He’s only $3900 and is in a great matchup against the Kings.


On the other side of the ball, Ray McCallum is a textbook safe value play that is almost sure to produce 15-25 FPs. His price went down 100 to $3,300 for tonight’s tilt.




Shooting Guard


James Harden (HOU) vs. OKC: $10.400


Harden is on fire lately and he should be looking for revenge against his….wait, he had a chance to burn his former team in Oklahoma City and they shut him down for a season-low 8 PTs on 2 of 9 shooting. A player like Harden is to proud and talented to lay consecutive eggs in a game that is important for multiple reasons, but even more importantly, the Thunder have been gutted by opposing SGs for 40.04 FPPG (3rd most) and they clearly miss the defensive presence of Thabo Sefolosha.


Lance Stephenson (IND) vs. BOS: $6600


Lance turned it over 6 times against the Mavs on Saturday, but shot the ball well and ended up producing 21 PTs and 33.75 DK PTs in the effort. That’s about his floor in a matchup with the Celitcs because, frankly, they usually brick a ton of shots. Stephenson is averaging 9.5 RPG in two meetings with the C’s and of course he triple doubled in the first of those contests. Another big game could be in the making as the Pacers host Boston tonight.



Values: Jeremy Lin is a GPP ONLY play that could lay a complete egg or drop 40 DK PTs. At $5300 he could help you build a very high scoring lineup, or destroy that LU.


Jerryd Bayless was serviceable in an earlier meeting with the Pacers and is locked into heavy minutes as a pull-first SG alongside Rondo. He’s still a conservative value play at $4500.


Courtney Lee isn’t the consistent performer that he was earlier in the season, but he’s getting plenty of minutes and is playing against the fast-paced Blazers. He’s available at a discounted rate of $3600.





Small Forward


Rudy Gay (SAC) vs. DET: $7,500


I like both Gay and his individual opponent tonight, as Josh Smith is also a terrible defender that struggled through some decently difficult matchups recently. The entire Kings offense was stymied by the Raptors and Nets over the weekend as they lost both contests in convincing fashion, but the Pistons allow the 4th most FPPG (39.13) to opposing SFs and aren’t stopping anyone these days, so Gay could easily exceed value for $500 cheaper than the inconsistent J-Smoove.



Ersan Ilyasova (MIL) vs. MIN: $5200


Is Ilyasova doing that thing again where he only plays the last two months of the season? He was averaging 16 PTs on 53.4% FG shooting through the first four games of March and just dropped 16 PTs and 34.25 DK PTs on the Magic last night. He’s in the same category as Jeremy Lin in that you really can’t bet much of your bankroll on his performance, but could save a lot of cap space while breaking 30 DK PTs again tonight.






Value: I wrote this yesterday and since DK hasn’t had time to adjust the price it’s still absolutely true. Just change Magic to Wolves:


“Khris Middleton is simply under priced at $4400. The Magic are vulnerable to SFs and he’s been scoring very consistently for the Bucks lately.”



Power Forward


Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. HOU: $11,200


Durant, Westbrook, and James Harden are extremely expensive, but this could be a rare game where several superstars post eye-popping lines. It’s certainly a game to target and Durant possesses pretty much the highest floor in DFS, so he may justify that lofty price tag in this particular matchup.


David Lee (GSW) vs. DAL: $7700


Lee is picking up a lot of slack on offense with Steph Curry and Andrew Bogut seemingly hobbled. He dropped 26 PTs in a team high 37 minutes, while also leading the Warriors with 18 FGA in their win over Phoenix on Sunday. He should rip through Dirk Nowitzki like the German tears into his morning sauerkraut (or something) and post a double double in a high-scoring home game. Lee is a great 50/50 play with an upper-tier price tag like this.



Values:  Kris Humphries is getting minutes until Brad Stevens decides he shouldn’t be, and he’s only $4500. The Celtics will need his physical presence against the bullying Pacers.


Speaking of matching up, The Kings will wish they had two of Reggie Evans in order to keep the Pistons big men off the boards tonight. He’s still $3600 and should slightly improve on the 15.75 DK points he put up in a blowout loss on Sunday.





Joakim Noah (CHI) vs. SAS: $8500


Center is a very tough position to choose from tonight, and the top choice would be Joakim Noah if he weren’t coming off an incredibly draining effort and facing a tough matchup with the Spurs. Yet even as I type reasons not to play him I have to consider Noah an elite play at that price tag. He could box out Shaq right now, he’d rip a baby wolverine from its mothers’ jaws, he’d drink his father under the table (probably not). The point is, Noah is an absolute maniac that will fight for every inch, and should be able to meet value in another very competitive home matchup with the Spurs tonight.


Marc Gasol (MEM) vs. POR: $7600


When they faced each other on Saturday night, you could see the similarities between Gasol and Joakim Noah from a pure basketball standpoint. Obviously he doesn’t play with the same intensity, but he fills the stat sheet and can log more dimes than boards in a given night. He’s getting healthy, and is a pretty safe bet as the Grizzlies host a Blazers team that should force them to play with a bit more pace.


Values: Taj Gibson is priced just $200 below Carlos Boozer because he often finishes games over the veteran. He’s a pretty safe play at $5600.  


Luis Scola is an uninspiring punt play at $3600, but he would pay off if the Pacers blow out the Celtics in Conseco Fieldhouse tonight.


Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7


Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)


$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier


#2 Scott Atkins

Scott Atkins


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Posted 11 March 2014 - 07:00 AM

Thank you Nate!! Was wondering about David Lee today and this confirms it. I wish I had the guts to play Lin, hahaha...



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