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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.12.14


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 08:02 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.12.14

 

 

If you haven't tried playing Daily NBA you're missing out. While production in Fantasy Football is extremely unpredictable, basketball is close to a science when it comes to Daily Fantasy Sports, and there's no better place to play it then DraftKings, home of the late player swap. 

 

 

No other DFS site can equal the size of Kings' pools and payouts, and you can get started by playing $2, $1 or even $0.25 games HERE. Who knows, you may turn that $2 entry fee into a $500 payout if you do enough research, that's how I made my bankroll and now I'm free rolling with over $1,000 of winnings.

 

They will match your initial deposit ($100 deposit = $100 bonus) over time and get you started with a free ticket to the $2 guaranteed prize pool. Now's a great time to get started with huge College Basketball games later this month and Daily MLB action starting in April.

 

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 

 

 

 

 

Tonight, Wednesday March 12, 2014

 

 

 

Games to Target:

 

·       Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5): O/U – 214

The Warriors haven’t been truly challenged in over a week as they took care of business early against the Hawks, Suns, and Mavericks during their recent home stand. Now they travel to Staples Center for a bout with my dark horse to win the title this year in the L.A. Clippers. That means David Lee should finally log over 30 minutes and reach value, Steph Curry may play a little more than the minimal burn he’s been getting, and I’m done trying to figure out how healthy Andrew Bogut is, but he should be needed to keep Griffin and Jordan off the boards tonight. Andre Iguodala is a sleeper in this game as it should be fast-paced and athleticism is all over the court.

 

Blake is back in a zone and has good splits against the Warriors this season. Bogut has been able to give him problems, but he may not be healthy enough to guard Griffin for extended periods tonight. DeAndre Jordan is always a safe play as the league’s leading rebounder, while Chris Paul gets a great matchup with Steph Curry or whatever backup PG the Warriors throw out there. Matt Barnes is really productive right now, but $5900 is a bit too much for his services and Collison may be in the same boat at $5700. Jamal Crawford clearly came back too soon and had to miss Monday’s game, wait for news about him in the coming weeks as he will be a stellar value play eventually.

 

 

 

·        Sacramento Kings (-8.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers O/U – 217.5

The Kings are 8.5-point favorites on the road, but don’t strike me as the kind of veteran team that can put the 76ers away early. Even the Knicks struggled with that (reasonable) task on Monday and perhaps Philadelphia makes a push to break their comically long losing streak tonight. If they do, expect huge games from MCW and Thad Young, reasonable production from James Anderson, and Tony Wroten should attack relentlessly as he plays guaranteed minutes even if it’s a blowout.

 

Starting Kings is much more appealing, as they get fantastic matchups across the board. Reggie Evans is the best value play for this team, while IT2’s price has crept down to a very affordable range. DeMarcus Cousins could easily flirt with a 20/20 game again and Rudy Gay should produce a little more than he did last night considering the volume is always there and the 76ers can’t guard anyone.

 

 

 

 

·        Denver Nuggets (-1.5) @ Orlando Magic: O/U = 212

Vegas correctly understands that while the Nuggets should be favored against a bad Eastern Conference team like the Magic, they’re by no means going to crush them. Denver is more concerned with outscoring the opposition than they are with defense, and that should inflate Orlando’s pedestrian average of 96.8 PPG this season. Nikola Vucevic has another great matchup, he’s almost guaranteed to double double and may flash some upside if his conditioning is solid enough for this track meet. Tobias Harris is an intriguing GPP play, as you don’t know what you will get from him, and Arron Afflalo is a safe play at $6200.

 

 

Ty Lawson crushed this matchup earlier in the season, but $8900 is a serious commitment to the speedy PG. I see him as the safe alternative to the mercurial Kyrie Irving tonight. Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler should both bounce back from poor shooting outings against the stout Bobcats and Foye is a better option considering he’s just $4600 on DK. Kenneth Faried is a bit expensive, but is locked into a consistent role and producing, while Timofey Mozgov could be a punt play that logs extra minutes in order to matchup with the giant Vucevic.

 

 

 The Little Things:

 

·      Andre Drummond tweaked his ankle and got into foul trouble last night. His rebounding tear might be over and the Raptors do a decent job of boxing out bigger opponents.

·      Careful betting on anyone in the Heat/Nets game. Brooklyn really only plays when they want to and could easily write tonight off as a “schedule loss” in Miami.

·      Kemba Walker has been hot lately and gets a decent matchup with John Wall, but his splits are far worse on the road and he may not be the dynamite GPP play he’s been at home over the past couple weeks.

 

 

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

Point Guard

 

Goran Dragic (PHO) vs. CLE: $8000

 

Dragic has been battling through a side injury and posted a couple of very lackluster lines in three consecutive games. However, matchups with three elite teams in the Western Conference are far different from a home tilt with the Cleveland Cavaliers, and its doubtful that his 3:2 AST:TO ratio over that recent slump continues. The Cavs have surrendered the 2nd most FPPG (43.40) and 4th most FPPG over the last two weeks to opposing PGs as Kyrie Irving does nothing to slow down his man and they lack any real rim protection with Spencer Hawes now patrolling the paint. Expect the Dragon to get into the lane and find his teammates for a solid double double. While some players may fade him due to recent shortcomings and the probable return of Eric Bledsoe, he is still the top dog in Phoenix and could show out in front of the home crowd.

 

Kyle Lowry (TOR) vs. DET: $8300

 

Have to mention Lowry, who is more of a GPP play than either of the other PGs listed here. He’s scored 20+ PTs and flirted with, or logged a triple double in consecutive games and now gets a matchup with a Pistons team that is getting exposed by opposing PGs. Over the last two weeks, Detroit is coughing up the most 3PTM per game (3) and 4th most RPG (6.26) to the position and that is essentially Lowry’s game. Look for him to get the better of a hobbled Brandon Jennings as the Raptors host the Pistons tonight.

 

 

Isaiah Thomas (SAC) vs. PHI: $6800

 

IT2 is back in the mid-tier price range, which is excellent news if you appreciate his lofty floor and reasonable ceiling. Based on this price tag, he needs around 40 DK points to hit value and a matchup with a 76ers team that allows 49.91 FPPG (most in the league) to opposing PGs over the last two weeks could certainly provide that. The Sixers are coughing up a whopping 13.14 APG to PGs over that span, and the biggest concern for the Kings starters is that they won’t be needed in the fourth quarter. Sacramento played last night, but Thomas has been solid with per game averages of 20.1 PTs and 6.3 AST on the second night of B2B sets, and is also shooting a season best 48.6% from the field in those situations.

  

 

Values:  Phil Pressey should start with Rondo resting tonight and is very tempting at $3300. Hes failed miserably in a couple starts before, but a matchup with the Knicks undisciplined defense justifies some exposure to the rookie.

 

Shaun Livingston is still starting at SG and can pile up rebounds and steals to supplement his marginal scoring average. At $3800 hes a decently safe play and had a big game against the Heat the last time these teams met.

 

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Kyrie Irving (CLE) vs. PHO: $8900

 

While Irving plays matador defense on Goran Dragic, he should go right back at him on the other end and could have a big night. Hes the top SG play on the board as long as Steph Curry isnt 100% healthy, and is coming off a 30-point game in which he flirted with a triple double while playing 43 minutes. Kyrie was back at practice today, so assuming hes all systems go for tonight, he makes for an intriguing play with 60FP upside and a dauntingly low floor that makes him more of a GPP play than anything.  Dragic has been burnt by opposing PGs since he returned from his ankle injury, and this matchup could be generous to both players.

 

Gerald Green (PHO) vs. CLE: $6300

 

We’ll stay right in Phoenix for this next selection, and apparently Green’s price will stay in the exact same place as well. Despite having the best weekend of his life and pretty much cementing his candidacy for Most Improved Player of the Year with 66 PTs and 11 3PTM in two games, Green is still available for a mid-tier price. The folks at DraftKings may have foreseen a dip in his playing time with Eric Bledsoe slated to return in a limited capacity, but the timing is good for Gerald as P.J. Tucker is looking at a suspension for his role in an altercation during the Clippers game on Monday. He could slide over to SF, where the Cavs have been burnt for 39.65 FPPG this season, and continue his aggressive style that is ideal for the scoring system on DraftKings. 

 

 

Values: Manu Ginobili destroyed the Blazers for 46.5 DK PTs in under 30 minutes of play earlier this season. He’s an intriguing GPP play at $5200 because of how awful Portland’s PnR defense is.

 

Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler were awful in a loss to the Bobcats on Monday, but $4600 is a great price for Foye as he faces a far worse defense in Orlando tonight.

 

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. DET: $7800

 

DeRozan is a jump shooter, so his recent stretch of disappointing production has to be expected from time to time. He went 4 of 13 for just 15 PTs in a dream matchup with the Kings, scored 25 but dished out no assists and 4 TO against the Wolves, and struggled in a tough matchup with Brooklyn on Monday. Now he gets a chance at redemption against a Pistons team that has one of the worst defenses in the league since the all-star break. In a previous meeting with Detroit, DeRozan was off as well and shot just 3 of 16, but got to the line 16 times and added enough peripheral stats to finish with 39 DK points. That’s around his floor tonight, but if his jumper is falling (and he does shoot a few % points higher at home) he could exceed value.

 

 

Thaddeus Young (PHI) vs. SAC: $7200

 

Young met value with 40.25 FPs in a loss to the Knicks on Monday. He made just 8 of 22 FGA, but the name of the game on DraftKings is volume, and Thad got plenty of that in his 40 minutes of playing time. Tonight he gets an ever better matchup with Rudy Gay and a Kings team that is coughing up 42.61 FPPG to opposing PFs this season. If Sacramento puts a PF on Young he will blow by them for easy hoops, while Gay is a soft defender that shouldn’t do much to keep him off the boards. Either way, another 40+ FP game is definitely possible.

 

Values: Kyle Singler, at $3800, is a relatively safe bet to log big minutes for the Pistons. He will matchup with DeMar DeRozan at SG which makes him safer than Stuckey, Jennings or Bynum, who will have to guard the opposing PG.

 

Whenver you can play a starter for under 4K you have to consider it. Coutney Lee is just $3600 and while the matchup isn’t great, he has a decent floor as the Grizzlies starting SG.

 

 

Power Forward

 

Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. GSW: $10,000

After a brief slump Griffin dominated a Suns team that had gotten the better of him in three previous meetings with one of the most impressive performances of the season on Monday night. He hit 14 of 16 shots and was legitimately unstoppable. Despite the Warriors overall defensive improvement, David Lee is not a lockdown defender and he will need help to contain Blake. That should open up more passing lanes for the man who is averaging 4.3 APG over his last four appearances. Griffin is putting up 23.3PPG, 9 RPG, and 3 APG in three meetings with the Warriors this season and I expect him to best those averages in a heated matchup in Staples Center tonight. Theres no reason to pay up for LeBron and Melo in potential blowouts when Griffin should have to compete for four quarters.

 

David Lee (GSW) vs. LAC: $7700

 

Alright, I'm going to recommend David Lee again despite his limited production in yet another blowout win for the Warriors last night. He's actually been at his best on 0 days rest this year with 20.4 PPG in 10 appearances, and is averaging a productive 22.3 PTs and 9.7 REB in three meetings with the Clippers. Someone is going to have to pick up the scoring slack as the Warriors finally get into a competitive game, and with Curry hobbled, it may have to be Lee.

 

 

Values:  Amare Stoudemires price has risen to $4900, but he should still meet value against the Celtics tonight. Even with Tyson Chandler expected back for the Knicks, Amare is on a roll right now and regaining some confidence.

 

Reggie Evans drew the start last night and met value with 20+ DK PTs, he’s still just $3600 and could easily grab a few extra boards in a fast-past matchup with the 76ers.

 

 

Center

 

DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) vs. PHI: $9800

 

If you want guaranteed production, just play the entire SLU that is taking on the 76ers. Philadelphia is historically bad, and so pathetically outmatched in the paint that even Cousins will have a hard time getting into foul trouble in this contest. The Sixers allow the 2nd most FPPG (49.58) and 2nd most RPG (15.52) to opposing centers this season and their league-leading pace should lead to plenty of easy PTs and REB for Boogie tonight. He may not be the greatest GPP play considering the Sixers are likely to get blown out of every game the rest of the season, but should have his way with Henry Sims and the patchwork group of centers Philly will throw at him.

 

Nikola Vucevic (ORL) vs. DEN: $7800

 

Vooch is more of a GPP play than the other two centers listed here. He disappointed everyone that used him on Monday by producing 12 PTs, 12 REB and just 27.5 DK points against the hapless Bucks. A double double is nothing to sneeze at, but its not going to cut it for a player priced this high. That being said, I think VucciMane could go off against a Nuggets team that plays at a fantasy-friendly pace and gives up the 4th most FPPG (46.03) to opposing centers this season. Denver has coughed up 100+ PTs in ten straight games, and Vucevic should get plenty of easy putbacks to pile onto his stat line as the Magic speed up their pace to match the Nuggets.

 

 

 

 

Value: Timofey Mozgov is a decent punt play at $3900 with limited upside. Hes played 20 MPG over his last two appearances but that number should increase, as he will be needed to matchup with Vucevic. If you need guaranteed (minimal) production at a discount, give him a look.

.

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier


Edited by Scott Atkins, 12 March 2014 - 09:05 AM.


#2 Scott Atkins

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Posted 12 March 2014 - 09:07 AM

While I try to play all the sites, Draftkings is honestly the only place I'd play Daily NBA. The late player swap is invaluable. Players sit unexpectedly all the time, how could you ever risk that? 


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