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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.14.14


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 14 March 2014 - 07:05 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.14.14

 

 

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Tonight, Friday March 14, 2014

 

 

 

 

 

Games to Target:

 

·       Portland Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans:

The line should come out soon and I would expect it to be within 2 points considering LaMarcus Aldridge will not play for the Blazers. Portland plays a fantasy friendly style of game as they run up and down the court and worry more about scoring than getting stops. Nic Batum should grab more rebounds with Aldridge out, as will Robin Lopez. Thomas Robinson and Dorell Wright become relevant, and Wes Matthews, Damian Lillard, and CJ McCollum should all get more time with Mo Williams out as well.

 

The Pelicans are basically a one-man-band if Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon are still inactive. If that’s the case, Austin Rivers will be a fantastic value play while Anthony Morrow and Brian Roberts receive a boost. Anthony Davis is the man for the Pels right now, and the only player really worth targeting, but that just means he’s worth the money in what should be a closely contested game at home.

 

 

 

·        Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat (-10) O/U – 214

Players in this game should mostly be used in GPPs, because there is a legitimate chance Miami covers this spread after two consecutive tough losses. Expect LeBron and D-Wade to put up big scoring numbers, while Chris Bosh should improve on his usually pedestrian rebounding totals for the Heat. Mario Chalmers is coming on lately, and the bench mob of Chris Anderson, Norris Cole, and Ray Allen may hold value in a fast-paced game that will require frequent subs.

 

It’s usually best to fade the top offensive option that is taking on the Heat. Ty Lawson will likely fill up the box score, but that should include the TO section as the Heat key in on his penetration. Miami has a tendency to rotate too much on defense, which could open up good looks for Randy Foye and Wilson Chandler on the perimeter. The obvious targets in Miami games are powerful, rebounding bigs and the Nuggets have two in Kenneth Faried and J.J. Hickson. The Manimal has been consistent lately but Hickson is much cheaper at $5800. Either one of these guys could flirt with 20 REB as the Heat are allowing 20 RPG to opposing centers over the last two weeks.

 

 

 

 

·        Cleveland Cavs @ Golden State Warriors

We know Klay Thompson is out, and we know Steph Curry is not healthy as he left the Warriors last game with 4 minutes to play. That means Golden State is much less likely to put the Cavs away early, and Cleveland actually pulled out a tough road win in Phoenix earlier this week. Kyrie Irving is worth a look at a manageable $8900, while Jarrett Jack is a GPP play for $4400 in a revenge game against his old team. The rest of the Cavs are basically fringe options, but if Irving goes off you’ll want to pair him with….

 

David Lee may be the Warriors top scoring option again tonight. He wasn’t needed against the Mavs on Tuesday but came through with a solid 35.75 DK points against the Clippers the following night. The Cavs are one of the worst defensive teams in the league since the all-star break, and the points are going to come from somewhere so Lee is a safe play at $7600. With Klay Thompson out, Andre Iguodala could start at SG and make room for Draymond Green at SF. I’d expect Green to continue coming off the bench, and Steve Blake to earn the start at SG. Blake hasn’t fit in yet with the Warriors, but posted a triple double against the Cavs when he was with the Lakers so exceeding value is a real possibility tonight.

 

 

 The Little Things:

 

·      Keep an eye on Popovich’s plans for his older players tonight. The Lakers are on the second half of a B2B set and may not present much of a threat in San Antonio, so Duncan, Parker and Ginobili may get extra rest.

·      He’s not listed in the recommendations section, but Damian Lillard should see a rise in FGA with LaMarcus Aldridge ruled out tonight. Mo Williams is also inactive, and that guarantees Lillard will play around 40 minutes if the game stays close in New Orleans.

·      The Clippers are only favored by 8.5 and Utah is a tough place to play, but these two teams are going in opposite directions right now. Expect DJA, Griffin and CP3 to dominate this matchup through three quarters and rest during the fourth if L.A. can pull away.

 

 

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

Point Guard

 

John Wall (WAS) vs. ORL: $8900

Personally, I tend to avoid Wall, especially on the road where he averages nearly 4 fewer PPG. Yet the Magic are a juicy matchup for opposing PGs and Wall is averaging 21.5 PTs and 10 AST in two meetings with Orlando this season. The Wizards wing players (Ariza and Beal) are very inconsistent and their PF production is non-existent since Nene went down, which has really boosted Walls usage rate and somehow, caused his price to drop to a very affordable range. He has a floor around 40 DK points and plenty of upside if this game is competitive for four quarters.

 

Kemba Walker (CHA) vs. MIN: $8100

 

Like Wall, Kemba prefers to play in front of a home crowd and averages 3.1 more PTs and 1.8 AST per game in Charlotte this season. Unlike Wall, he’s at home tonight against a terrible defensive in the Minnesota Timberwolves. Ricky Rubio made Brandon Knight look like an all-star on Wednesday as he allowed the Kentucky product to score 21 PTs on 9 of 17 shooting. That poor defensive performance jettisoned the Wolves into the bottom 3 in terms of defending PGs as they are now coughing up 45.78 FPPG to the position over the last two weeks. Walker produced a combined 44 PTs, 21 AST and over 100 DK points in his last two home games and should continue to roll tonight.

 

 

Values:  Steve Blake should get some extra run tonight with Klay Thompson (personal) inactive and Steph Curry hobbled. Hes a decent GPP play at $4400.

 

The last time I predicted a Spurs blowout, I was dead wrong, but when they host the Lakers on the second half of a B2B garbage time could come early and that would give Patty Mills a good shot to exceed value at just $3400.

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Dwyane Wade (MIA) vs. DEN: $7700

 

Dont even consider Wade if you wont be able to swap him out of your lineups at a moments notice. Hes actually played in five straight games and is logging 36.6 MPG during that span, while averaging 21.6 PPG, which is uncharacteristically consistent for one of the biggest duds so far this season. The Nuggets surrender a below average 36.15 FPPG to opposing SGs this season and play at a blistering pace that should lead to plenty of easy hoops for both Wade and LeBron as the Heat look to rebound from Wednesdays tough loss in a high-scoring affair at home.

 

Eric Bledsoe (PHO) vs. BOS: $7000

 

I was shocked to see how productive Bledsoe was in his first game back. He showed no signs of rust and an elite level of conditioning as he produced 15 PTs, 9 AST, 3 REB, 2 STL, no TO and 36.75 DK PTs against the Cavs. He played 32 minutes after a 33-game hiatus from NBA action, and could be ready to eclipse that number tonight. The matchup isn’t fantastic, but if Avery Bradley is still inactive, expect Bledsoe to approach 40 DK points again, and he’s worth a look while he’s available at such a steep discount.  

 

 

Values: Randy Foye again? If you have the stomach for it, he’s now an official value play at $4400 and the Heat’s aggressive defense usually leads to a ton of open threes for the opposition, if he can break out of his shooting slump he might be a fantastic GPP play.

 

Austin Rivers could be a fantastic play at $3400. He’s very risky unless Eric Gordon and/or Tyreke Evans are inactive, but keep an eye on their status.

 

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Kawhi Leonard (SAS) vs. LAL: $6400

If you can afford LeBron at $10,600, more power to you, but the reigning MVP has failed to hit value more often than not this season and it may be wiser to play it safe with some mid-tier values at SF. Leonard is the definition of safe, as he’s produced 25 to 35 DK points in all eight of his appearances since returning from a hand injury. He also has the best matchup available to SFs as the Lakers are coughing up 51.73 FPPG to the position over the last two weeks. Even if the game gets out of hand, Leonard still has a good chance to hit value by rebounding and finishing on the break as the Lakers suck wind on the second night of a B2B.

 

Lance Stephenson (IND) vs. PHI: $6200

 

Lance is a reverse fade in the sense that many players, including myself, will be frustrated with his terrible performance against the Celtics on Tuesday and refuse to play him. He may be dealing with a mild groin injury, but nothing can really prevent a SF from being productive against a 76ers team that coughs up the MOST FPPG (42.84) to the position this season. Lance and D-Wade are similar plays to me in the sense that they often nearly match the production of their superstar teammates (Paul George and LeBron) for several thousand dollars less. So I’d much rather play Lance, who often gets extra minutes in garbage time, and hope he gets 37 DK points, then bank on George producing 51 DK points to hit value.

 

 

Values: Kent Bazemore continues to show flashes of talent and plays in close games and blowouts for Mike D’Antoni. He’s not a bad play at $4500

 

Martell Webster has been playing heavy minutes of the bench in the absence of Nene. He’s just $3600 so he could hit value despite a lack of peripheral stats.

 

 

 

Power Forward

 

Anthony Davis (NOP) vs. POR: $10,200

Kevin Loves price is absurdly high and Blake Griffin will play in a likely blowout, so the Brow is the top big man option tonight in what should be a high-scoring contest with Portland. He posted 27 PTs, 12 REB, 5 BLK and 54.5 DK points in a matchup with the Blazers at the end of December, and is back on a similar role with per game averages of 29 PTs and 14 REB in his last four appearances. The absence of legitimate scoring threats on the Pelicans roster ensures a ton of volume for the young stud, and he will have to be on top of his game to beat Portland. The Blazers will also be without LaMarcus Aldridge which means New Orleans has a better chance of competing at home.

 

Kenneth Faried (DEN) vs. MIA: $7400

Faried is getting very pricey, but it’s hard to argue with how consistent he’s been now that he’s gotten 30+ minutes in each of his last seven appearances. As you know, Miami is a joke in terms of guarding opposing centers. They’re allowing the most FPPG (56.98) and most RPG (20.04) to the position over the last two weeks, and Faried is the best rebounder available to the center-less Nuggets. If you think Timofey Mozgov is going to last out on the floor in this type of matchup you’re probably wrong, so it will be Faried and J.J. Hickson dominating Chris Bosh on the boards for most of the game. He’s still a GPP play because he’s an inexperienced player on an inexperienced team going to a hostile environment against the motivated defending champs, but is worth a look as a nearly guaranteed double double candidate.

 

 

Values:  Thomas Robinson should start for the injured Aldridge at PF tonight. Hes just $3000, so he wont need much to hit value, but I wouldnt expect too much in a matchup with Anthony Davis, foul trouble is a real concern.

 

If youre playing the blowout factor, Luis Scola is a solid play for $3600. There are certain teams you can predict will get blown out and certain teams you know will, and the 76ers fall into the latter category against.pretty much anyone these days.

 

 

Center

  

Nikola Vucevic (ORL) vs. WAS: $7900

Vucevic doesn’t really have the upside to crack a GPP lineup, but you have to appreciate the consistency required to log 8 consecutive double doubles. In a tough matchup at home you can only really consider him for 50/50 and H2H games, but he’s a solid bet for 35-45 FP regardless of the opponent. Tim Duncan and DeAndre Jordan are similar plays for a bit cheaper, but unlike Vucevic, their teams could easily blow out the opposition and they may only play limited minutes. VucciMane is the safer upper-tier option at center.

 

 

Andrew Bogut (GSW) vs. CLE: $5600

One of these days Bogut is going to play heavy minutes and pull down an incredible number of rebounders as he exceeds value by a wide margin. This might be that day, as he logged 30 minutes two games ago and seemed like he would’ve played more if he hadn’t picked up 5 PFs against the Clippers on Wednesday night. Anderson Varejao is not healthy and Spencer Hawes is a rather soft defender, so Bogut could pick up some slack on offense with Klay Thompson out and Steph Curry at less than 100%. The big Aussie is getting healthy and may be under priced in this matchup.

 

 

Values: Brad Stevens could pull the rug out from under him at any moment, but Kris Humphries is producing very consistently for the Celtics over the past week. For $4500 he could produce consistently for your LU.

 

Chris Andersen should get a few more minutes than usual to deal with the Manimal and J.J. Hickson, who are too quick for Greg Oden and too big for Chris Bosh to handle. Hes priced very reasonably at $3500.

.

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier


Edited by nweitzer7, 14 March 2014 - 09:29 AM.





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