Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.17.14


  • Please log in to reply
3 replies to this topic

#1 nweitzer7

nweitzer7

    Fan

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 42 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Boston, MA
  • Interests:Basketball is life. Other sports are cool too
  • Favorite Team:Celtics

Posted 17 March 2014 - 06:15 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.17.14

 

 

If you haven't tried playing Daily NBA you're missing out. While production in Fantasy Football is extremely unpredictable, basketball is close to a science when it comes to Daily Fantasy Sports, and there's no better place to play it then DraftKings.

 

 

No other DFS site can equal the size of Kings' pools and payouts, and you can get started by playing $2, $1 or even $0.25 games HERE. Who knows, you may turn that $2 entry fee into a $500 payout if you do enough research, that's how I made my bankroll and now I'm free rolling with over a $1,000 of winnings.

 

They will match your initial deposit ($100 deposit = $100 bonus) over time and get you started with a free ticket to the $2 guaranteed prize pool. Now's a great time to get started with huge College Basketball games later this month and Daily MLB action starting in April.

 

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 

 

 

 

 

Tonight, Monday March 17, 2014

 

 

 

 

Games to Target:

 

·       Los Angeles Clippers (-5.5) @ Denver Nuggets: O/U – 221.5

The Clippers made quick work of the Cavs last night, but may have a more difficult time putting away the Nuggets in their own building tonight. Denver is playing at a blistering pace these days, and really struggle to contain opposing big men, which makes Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan two of the best available options tonight. Chris Paul didn’t really look for his shot last night but could take advantage of a Nuggets team that coughs up the 2nd most APG (10.21) to opposing PGs over the last two weeks. If Darren Collison (illness) is inactive again tonight, it would open up more opportunities for Matt Barnes, Willie Green and Danny Granger, who could meet value in a fast-paced showdown.

 

 

The Nuggets are 10th in the league in scoring and are capable of keeping pace with the Clippers at home. Recently, it’s been all Ty Lawson and Kenneth Faried, but Lawson struggled mightily in Saturday’s loss as he went 0 for 11 from the field and scored just 2 points. Expect him to bounce back despite the difficult matchup, and for Faried to post yet another double double. Wilson Chandler is still locked into his role as SF and possesses a decent floor and solid upside, but Randy Foye and Evan Fournier seem to have fallen into a timeshare at SG and neither should be trusted. J.J. Hickson is an appealing GPP play at $5800 as he is capable of posting huge rebounding numbers on occasion.

 

 

 

·        Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls (-7.5) O/U – 214.5

Westbrook is expected to return to action for the Thunder tonight and that should jump-start their offense, which was extremely ineffective in last night’s blowout loss to Dallas. The Bulls have shut down a couple of the top offensive teams in the NBA in recent weeks, but the tandem of Westy and Kevin Durant is pretty much unstoppable. It’s not that I’m talking ---- about LeBron James and James Harden, who were completely stymied by the Bulls, but….I kind of am, as those two superstars are a constant disappointment in DFS. Don’t fade the Thunder’s two top guns as they look to help their team rebound from a tough loss.

 

The Bulls don’t usually scream DFS value outside of Joakim Noah, but as long as the game remains close and the Thunder score in bunches as they usual do, there should be value on both sides of the ball. Noah is a top option as usual, and Jimmy Butler played 38 minutes despite shooting 1 for 11 from the field during Saturday’s game, so it’s safe to say his playing time is guaranteed. Kirk Hinrich and D.J. Augustin are both legitimate value plays, and Taj Gibson could continue to out perform Carlos Boozer for a more manageable price.

 

·        Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets (-5.5) O/U – 206.5

I was concerned about the Suns playing against the Raptors grind-it-out style, but they torched Toronto for 121 points and could’ve scored more if necessary. I’d expect their blazingly fast backcourt to force Brooklyn into more of an uptempo game tonight and inflate production on both sides. Goran Dragic is more of a pure distributor now that the Suns have Eric Bledsoe back, and while Gerald Green is still capable of getting hot off the bench, I wouldn’t bank on it every night. Markieff Morris is a reliable mid-tier option that should see plenty of playing time against the Nets undersized frontcourt.

 

Again, Brooklyn runs a deep rotation but they have a few value options that are under priced on DraftKings. Shaun Livingston is a fantastic play for just $4000, Andray Blatche could pay off his $5100 price tag, and it’s worth gambling that Marcus Thornton can get hot for just $3800. Paul Pierce is also in play at $5800, as it’s hard to find a go to option for so cheap.

 

 

 

 

 Outside The Box:

 

·      The blowout never happened in Philadelphia on Friday night, but if we expect the Pacers to crush the Sixers in Indiana tonight, Luis Scola and the rest of the bench mob could be sneaky GPP plays.

·      Jerryd Bayless is out of play now that Avery Bradley is back, but if Phil Pressey struggles tonight, the Celtics could turn to Bayless to run the point. He won’t be highly owned and could pay off his $4100 price tag.

·      Derrick Favors was on the “Never Again list” after his pathetic showing against the Bucks a couple weeks ago, but appears to be healthy after dropping a career-high 28 PTs against the Spurs. He gets an easier matchup tonight and could be a great play at a discounted price.

 

 

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

Point Guard

 

Ty Lawson (DEN) vs. LAC: $8300

 

I'm going out on a limb to recommend the pint-sized Lawson after he had possibly the worst shooting performance of his career on Saturday night. He's in the toughest matchup for PGs by the numbers, and clearly may be dealing with a slight hit to his confidence, but if the Nuggets are going to keep pace with the high-scoring Clippers, they will need a monumental effort from the former Tar Heel. Sure, Westbrook and Paul are safer options for $1,400 more, but if you want to construct a well rounded lineup that still has enough potential to crack 300 DK points, you may want to consider a bounce back game from Lawson.

 

Eric Bledsoe (PHO) vs. BKN: $6800

Bledsoe is a solid buy-low target as he ceded to Gerald Green yesterday and only attempted 5 FGs in 29 minutes of play. That will cause a lot people to fade him tonight, but a road matchup with Brooklyn could be a completely different story for the Suns backcourt and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bledsoe find some of his early season stride against the slower Nets. He aggressively attacked the basket against the Raptors and knocked down all 10 FTs on his way to 14 PTs and a disappointing 21.5 DK points on Sunday, but if he continues that trend against a Nets team that lacks any real rim protection, he could meet value on his discounted price tag. He’s still a GPP play until the Suns get used to integrating three stellar guards into their rotation, yet there’s a chance Bledsoe could be the one to break out tonight.

 

 Value: Patrick Beverley’s price did not move from $4300 and he gets a much softer matchup with the Jazz tonight. He played 36 minutes yesterday and ended up taking the 2nd most FGs on the team (14) as he produced 32 DK points and exceeded value.

 

Phil Pressey played well in relief of Rajon Rondo, who is almost certainly out tonight on the second night of a B2B set. Dallas is below average against PGs and Pressey is just $3300.

 

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Gordon Hayward (UTA) vs. HOU: $7300

While James Harden is once again the safest option at SG tonight, Hayward could pay off his price tag at nearly 3K less. Babyface struggled against the Spurs last night as he scored 17 PTs to go along with 6 REB, 6 AST and 6 TO, but the Rockets defense is not nearly as disciplined as San Antonio’s. In fact, Hayward had his most efficient scoring night of the year in a previous meeting with Houston back on Dec 2 as he dropped 29 PTs on 12 of 18 shooting from the field. The Rockets are terrible against opposing SGs and were just dissected by Dwyane Wade for 43.75 DK points yesterday. Hayward is a similar type of slasher and if he can find paths to the rim for some easy buckets, it could get the youngster going as he tries to keep his squad competitive in a tough road game.

 

 

Lance Stephenson (IND) vs. PHI: $6300

Lance is back to his stat stuffing ways as he is averaging 10.5 REB and 5 AST to go along with 13 PTs in his past two appearances. Paul George and Stephenson had solid outings against the 76ers on Friday night, but it’s hard to expect tonight’s tilt in Indiana to remain close through four quarters and that makes an expensive play like George much riskier than Born Ready. Stephenson often plays with the Pacers second unit, and has gotten run deep into some blowout wins as a result, so there’s a chance he even outscores PG24 if this game gets out of hand early. No Pacers starters should be considered outstanding GPP plays in a game where they’re favored by 20, but Lance is a solid bet to hit value if he plays at least three quarters.

 

 

 

Values: 

 

Shaun Livingston exceeded value again on Saturday night, and DraftKings has only raised his salary by $100. At $4000 he’s a great play regardless of the matchup as he is playing big minutes for the Nets.

 

Willie Green played nearly 35 minutes in last night’s win and is really the only option for the Clippers if Collison and Jamal Crawford are inactive tonight. He’s minimum price and probably won’t shoot 3 of 12 from the field again.

 

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. CHI: $11,300

Don’t get me wrong, I have the utmost respect for what the Bulls have been doing defensively for the past few weeks, but I respect KD’s offensive game even more. He carried the Thunder in a blowout loss last night and can’t really shoulder any blame for the result. That means both Durant and Westbrook will come out firing in a tough road game and have a chance to hit value through sheer volume, as almost no one else on the Thunder gets a shot off. Jimmy Butler is a great individual defender, but again, nobody can stop the Slim Reaper. He’s probably going to score 25+ points for the 27th straight game and fill up the stat sheet as he plays big minutes.

 

Jeff Green (BOS) vs. DAL: $6400

 

Green is usually on my ignore list, even when considering the fact that he dropped 39 points in last night’s OT loss to the Pelicans, yet you can’t ignore the trend in his numbers when Rondo sits. In Green’s last three appearances on the second half of B2B sets (with Rondo inactive) he’s averaging 28.3 PTs on 22.6 FGA. That means he’s shooting a rather poor percentage, but also indicates that the Celtics feed him the rock without their floor general and he is less likely to completely disappear in those instances. There’s no way you can trust this small sample size enough to play Green in 50/50 or H2H formats, but it’s worth considering him for GPPs.

 

Values:  Andre Roberson was certainly disappointing in his first start for the Thunder last night, but he should play big minutes and pull down enough rebounds to justify his minimum price tag in a physical game in Chicago. Caron Butler also struggled, but is a bit safer than Roberson and worth a look at $4100.

 

 

 

Power Forward

 

Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. DEN: $9800

Griffin is occupying the same spot that the Brow was in yesterday, and has a chance to be the top scorer of the night just like Davis was last night. He has dominated the Nuggets with per game averages of 30 PTs, 13.5 REB, and 4.5 AST in two meetings this season, and

his production is part of the reason that Denver is allowing the 3rd most FPPG (45.95) to opposing PFs on the year. He's incredibly versatile and nearly logged a triple double against Cleveland last night, but wasn't needed for much down the stretch as Chris Paul dispatched the shorthanded Cavs with his usual array of floaters and pull ups. If the Clippers get into a close game with the Nuggets, Griffin could definitely break 60 DK points with the chance for more.

 

 

 

Thaddeus Young (PHI) vs. IND: $7600

Young was a usage monster in Friday night’s loss to the Pacers as he produced 25 PTs and 54 DK points while attempting a whopping 31 FGs. He may not get that type of volume again in an almost certain blowout, but should be heavily involved in the Sixers desperate efforts to remain competitive on the road tonight. Philly tends to leave their young guns in towards the bitter end of blowouts, so the 20-point spread may not be as concerning if you’re going to target any 76ers, and Young is pretty much all they have in terms of effective offensive players.

 

 

Values:  Kris Humphries continues to roll and continues to be a bargain at just $4800.

 

Terrence Jones got off to a great start against the Heat and then faded away throughout the game, but he has much better splits at home and deserves GPP consideration while he’s priced at an affordable $4600.

 

 

Center

 

 

Joakim Noah (CHI) vs. OKC: $8700

The Bulls have been incredible on their current homestand, and Noah deserves all the credit in the world for setting the tone for Chicago with his intense play on both ends of the floor. As long as the game remains competitive, and you can rest assured that OKC won’t get blown out two nights in a row, Noah will make huge plays and pull down boards in traffic. He’s also facilitating the offense at unprecedented levels for a center, and is averaging 7.9 APG in the last month. He should make the Thunder miss the interior presence of Kendrick Perkins even more tonight as he outmuscles and outworks whomever they throw at him.

 

 

DeAndre Jordan (LAC) vs. DEN: $7100

Despite his limited offensive game, Jordan continues to produce solid FP totals by rebounding at an elite level and finishing at the rim. He's always a good bet for a double double, and has an even better chance of grabbing 15+ rebounds against a fast-paced, undersized team like the Nuggets. He dropped 37.25 DK points in an easy win over the Cavs last night and his floor is around 33 DK points on any given night, but tonight's matchup gives him a bit of a higher ceiling. 

 

 

Values: If Andrew Bynum is active tonight he should embarrass the Sixers in limited minutes and is only $4000. If he’s out, Lavoy Allen should get some more revenge on his former teammates and is even more affordable at $3000.

 

Pero Antic played limited minutes due to foul trouble on Saturday night, but still managed to score 16 PTs and finished with 23.75 DK points in 24 minutes. He should get more time than that tonight as he tries to slow down Al Jefferson and make the big man work by hitting jump shots on the other end and is worth consideration at just $3800.

 

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier



#2 Scott Atkins

Scott Atkins

    Administrator

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,990 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Indy
  • Interests:FF of course
  • Favorite Team:NY Jets

Posted 17 March 2014 - 07:38 AM

I like the GREEN font for the day. Very fitting. I was hoping you'd recommend a Celtic today. Even more fitting, you picked Green!


ANNOUNCEMENT!

 

Visit us on our NEW Forums

Your FFToolbox Email is your new account. Click FORGOT Password to create a new password. 


#3 nweitzer7

nweitzer7

    Fan

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 42 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Boston, MA
  • Interests:Basketball is life. Other sports are cool too
  • Favorite Team:Celtics

Posted 17 March 2014 - 07:41 AM

Perfect night for Jeff Green to go off, so of course he'll shoot 2 for 11 and grab 3 rebounds in 40 minutes. Only guy in the NBA with a rebounding clause in his contract that he ignores because, "I got enough money."



#4 Scott Atkins

Scott Atkins

    Administrator

  • Admin
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,990 posts
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Indy
  • Interests:FF of course
  • Favorite Team:NY Jets

Posted 17 March 2014 - 08:13 AM

I have a ticket in the big Bankshot Million coming up on the 26th. I need to find my groove...Starting today. I'll be back later with my thoughts on a few guys. 


ANNOUNCEMENT!

 

Visit us on our NEW Forums

Your FFToolbox Email is your new account. Click FORGOT Password to create a new password. 





0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users