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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.18.14

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#1 nweitzer7



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Posted 18 March 2014 - 07:48 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.18.14



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Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)


$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 




Tonight, Tuesday March 18, 2014



Games to Target:


·       Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Blazers (-12): O/U – 209

The Bucks are still one of the worst teams in the league, but they're not as bad as the numbers indicate any more. Their 29th ranked offense is putting up 103 PPG in 13 games since the Feb. 20 trade deadline and they have a couple of players worth targeting. Brandon Knight remains the safest option on the Bucks since his playing time is close to guaranteed, while Ersan Ilyasova, Khris Middleton, Nate Wolters, and Ramon Sessions could all meet or exceed value on their cheap price tags. John Henson may have played himself into a bigger role with some recently solid play, and if Ilyasova (ankle) still isn't ready for game action Jeff Adrien could be a great play against the undermanned Blazers.


Portland becomes a fantasy goldmine with LaMarcus Aldridge out, especially when they take on a Bucks defense that also ranks in the bottom 10 in terms of scoring defense. Nic Batum will likely move up to PF while Dorell Wright starts at the 3 and both players and solid plays considering their price tags. Robin Lopez is also under priced at $5600 while LMA is out and gets a great matchup, while Damian Lillard is a strict GPP play that will need a very big scoring night to exceed value. 


·        Washington Wizards (-2) @ Sacramento Kings: O/U – 204.5

These are two of the youngest and therefore, most unpredictable teams in the NBA, but they could easily put up a combined score of 240 and wake up Sleep Train Arena tonight. The Wizards generally play close games regardless of the competition as John Wall and Trevor Ariza lead their offense while also showing their shortcomings throughout games. Both of them are recommended plays against the soft Sacramento defense. Marcin Gortat was benched due to the matchup against the Nets on Saturday, but I expect him to bounce back if he can avoid picking up too many fouls while guarding Cousins, and Drew Gooden is a deep sleeper that could build on the momentum he established on Saturday.


It's no secret who the Kings are going to, as the three-man-band of Isaiah Thomas, Rudy Gay, and DeMarcus Cousins usually attempt the lion's share of their FGs. Gay was extremely passive in the absence of Cousins on Sunday night, and I'm hesitant to use him against a solid defender like Ariza, but the other two Kings should be very productive against Washington's below-average PnR defense. Expect IT2 to approach double digit assists while Cousins is a virtual lock for a double double and a ton of peripheral stats as he may benefit greatly from getting the night off on Sunday. There isn't much value on the Kings, but Reggie Evans and Ray McCallum remain decently safe punt plays at near minimum price and Ben McLemore should only be trusted with a quarter.





 Outside The Box:


·      Kyle Lowry is easily overpriced at $8800. He played fantastic on Sunday afternoon and produced north of 60 DK points, but that's not a regular occurrence for the new Mighty Mouse, as it takes a monumental effort for him to exceed value if he's priced like a stud. He's also not 100% due to an illness and the Hawks do a decent job containing PGs. 

·      The Blazers are 12-point favorites at home, but they've been struggling lately and have only blown out one team with Aldridge inactive in recent weeks. Milwaukee is also trending up since the acquisitions of Ramon Sessions and Jeff Adrien and could compete down the stretch tonight.

·      LeBron is featured in the recommendations section with a caveat that D-Wade could easily approach his production for far cheaper. In order to build a balanced LU, Wade is probably the Heat star you want to use tonight (assuming he's active), but if you want to swing for the fences the King could be your play. 



Player Recommendations:



Point Guard


 John Wall (WAS) vs. SAC: $9100


Wall and Isaiah Thomas are both prolific offensive players that have their shortcomings on defense. Expect Wall to attack the smaller Thomas all night as he carries the Wizards offense in a high-scoring contest. He’s been on a tear lately with per game averages of 25.6 PTs, 7 AST, and 3.6 REB while shooting 64% (11-17) from 3PT range and should continue to find success against a Kings team that allows the 6th most APG (8.74) to opposing PGs this season. He was under priced on DraftKings all week and met or exceeded value on his $8900 price tag, so a brief bump up to $9100 shouldn’t do much to dissuade you from using Wall.


Brandon Knight (MIL) vs. POR: $6700

Knight is playing much better for the Bucks lately and seems to be benefitting from more minutes of the ball as Nate Wolters and Ramon Sessions share some of the PG duties. The former Wildcat flirted with a triple double as he produced 8 REB and 7 AST to go along with a team-high 21 PTs in Sundays contest, and gets a fantastic matchup with the defensively indifferent Damian Lillard. Portland has coughed up the 4th most FPPG (43.15) to opposing PGs this season and Knight should continue to score consistently on the road tonight. Hes been the one constant for this Bucks team recently and is priced in an affordable range.



Value: Jarrett Jack should see heavy minutes at PG with Kyrie Irving out. Hes not the most appealing play at $4500 against a stout Heat defense, but could hit value through sheer volume. If he falters or his balky knee gives him trouble, Matt Dellavedova could be a sneaky play at minimum price.





Shooting Guard


Steph Curry (GSW) vs. ORL: $9500

Much to the delight of basketball fans everywhere, Curry returned to form with an outstanding 37-point performance in Portland on Sunday night and is back in play tonight. He’s played 38 MPG over his last two appearances and the quad injury seems to be behind him in time for a juicy matchup with the Magic. Orlando actually limited Curry to 9 PTs on 4 of 10 shooting in a previous meeting, but that seems like more of a fluke than anything as they allow a below average 39.73 FPPG to opposing PGs this season. Steph also plays much better at home, and should light up Oracle Arena tonight. If the game gets out of hand he may merely be a solid 50/50 play, but his relative discount makes him appealing in all formats.


Trevor Ariza (WAS) vs. SAC: $6000


Ariza is still only $6000 despite possessing a very solid floor/ceiling combination. When his shot isn’t falling, and it wasn’t on Saturday as he went 0-5 from 3PT range, he can still save his outing with decent peripheral stats and get to a 20 FP floor. However, against a team like Sacramento that is 29th in the league in terms of 3PT% against, Ariza could flash his upside by hitting several triples on his way to a 40+ DK-point night. He’s always a tempting GPP play that could be paired with John Wall in a game with a rather high O/U, and deserves a look as long as he’s priced in this range.



Values: Dion Waiters is a much safer play with Kyrie Irving out of the LU and could definitely exceed value at $5300. He scored 15 PTs on 15 FGA and played 36 minutes after Irving left Sunday’s game, and shouldn’t be shy about acting as the Cavs number one option against the Heat tonight.


Terrence Ross has shown a tendency to get hot shooting 3s and the Hawks are one of the worst perimeter defensive teams in the league. He’s a GPP only punt play at $4000.



Small Forward


LeBron James (MIA) vs. CLE: $10,500

Personally, I plan to fade LeBron until further notice, as he simply does not utilize his talents very often on offense. With D-Wade relatively healthy, there is little chance James hits value on a nightly basis, but you can’t ignore the extra motivation he will likely have in a return to Cleveland tonight. When he visited the arena that used to have a monstrous poster of his likeness draped across it last year, LBJ posted a triple double with 25 PTs, 12 REB, and 10 AST while attempting 22 FGs. That kind of uncharacteristic aggressiveness is what you have to look for when searching for a night in which The King will actually hit value. He’s averaging 26.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG, and 8.5 APG in two meetings with the Cavs this season and could turn up the intensity if Miami is challenged on the road tonight.


Nic Batum (POR) vs. MIL: $7700


As long as LaMarcus Aldridge is inactive- and he just recently shed his crutches- Batum will be a very appealing play. He’s posted 55.5 and 58 DK points in two games without LMA in the lineup and is averaging a gaudy 15.3 RPG in his last three appearances. Batum’s value is even higher tonight as he takes on a Bucks team that gives up the 5th most FPPG (38.22) to opposing SFs this season and ranks dead last in terms of defensive efficiency. The Blazers aren’t crushing teams since their MVP has been hobbled by a number of injuries, and if the Bucks play them tough in Milwaukee tonight, expect another big line from Batum.



Values: Ersan Ilyasova deserves some consideration due to his upside, but can easily torpedo any lineup he finds his way into. At $4900 he has a decent chance to exceed value as the Bucks host the high-scoring Blazers tonight.


Dorell Wright is still priced at the minimum $3000 and is a suitable punt play with Aldridge out.




Power Forward


DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) vs. WAS: $9400

Of course you have to make sure Cousins is active tonight, but word is that he got Sunday off as a rest day rather than to deal with any legitimate knee issues so he should be back in action as the Kings host the Wizards. That's not the most appealing matchup on paper, but Cousins is the type of bullying player that is almost immune to matchups, as evidenced by the 55 DK points he put up against the Bulls on Saturday night. He's looking a little more like the dominant player that led the league in Usage Rate for much of the season and is putting up big numbers on DraftKings, where missed FGs don't count for anything. Expect Boogie to see heavy volume in a close game at home tonight. 



Tobias Harris (ORL) vs. GSW: $6500

Harris has been productive off the bench for the Magic, but his value could receive a huge boost if Nikola Vucevic (ankle) is unable to suit up tonight. That would likely force the Magic to shift Kyle O’Quinn to center and insert Tobias into the SLU at PF and create the opportunity for Harris post solid rebounding totals against a relatively soft defender in David Lee. He’s purely a GPP play unless VucciMane is out, but has shown plenty of upside even in a reserve role and could be a key reason that the Magic are able to compete in Oracle Arena tonight.



Values:  Khris Middleton could be a decent "reverse fade" tonight, a.k.a. a player that has been down lately and will be very lightly owned. He's just $4200 but is playing around 30 MPG despite a shooting slump over his last 3 appearances, and a matchup with offensive-minded Blazers could help him find his stride.


Drew Gooden ran away with the Wizards PF job as he produced 21 PTs, 9 REB and 36.25 DK points against the Nets on Saturday night. His $3200 price tag is still near the bottom of the barrel and he has a chance to approach that type of production in a plus matchup with the Kings tonight.





Marcin Gortat (WAS) vs. SAC: $6500

Apparently Randy Wittman saw some things he didnt like from Gortat on Saturday night as the big man played just 22 minutes against the Nets. Brooklyns smaller lineup may have forced the Wizards coach to make some adjustments, but Gortat should now be well rested, motivated, and required to slow down the massive DeMarcus Cousins in tonights road game. Prior to Saturdays benching, Gortat had been very consistent with 13 straight games in double figures and three straight double doubles, so he has a reasonable floor and a good chance to meet or exceed value at a mid-tier price.


Robin Lopez (POR) vs. MIL: $5600

Lopez will continue to man the middle for the Blazers as long as LaMarcus Aldridge is out, and remains a very safe option tonight. The Bucks surrender the 3rd most FPPG (46.25) to opposing centers this season and Lopez has a good chance to at least meet value if he plays close to 38 minutes again in this contest. Keep playing him until his price tag catches up to his production.


Values: The same thing that applies to Harris goes for Kyle OQuinn at $4100. Hell likely start at PF if Vucevic plays but would see an increase in minutes and production if hes the starting center for the Magic.


Pero Antic posted a "cheap" double double with 11 PTs and 10 REB last night and might not reach that plateau again, but at $3800 he only needs to post around 22 DK points to keep your LU on pace for 300.


Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7


Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)


$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier

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