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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.20.14 (Short Slate Version)


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 09:05 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.20.14 

 

 

WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT!?!? Anthony Davis announced questionable 90 mins to gametime, that's fine. LeBron James announced inactive 2 mins after tip-off? NOT COOL, especially when you pay $100 for awesome seats, but the Celtics won so it all worked out. What didn't work out was the Nuggets reporting Ty Lawson would start 30 mins before their tip-off, and then pulling him from the lineup without much notice at all. Aaron Brooks thereby became not just the value play of the night, but the overall highest scorer and completely changed the fortune of anyone who risked playing him. 

 

Anyways, if you're new to Daily Fantasy Sports, please don't consider last night's action the norm. We're getting to the final days of the NBA season where teams decide to either rest their players for a playoff push, or to tank in slightly discrete ways (Cough, Anthony Davis tummyache). Basketball is going to get a little harder to predict in this last month, but with the MLB kicking off in less than two weeks and March Madness starting TODAY there's still plenty of reason to sign up on DraftKings. 

 

No other DFS site can equal the size of Kings' pools and payouts, and you can get started by playing $2, $1 or even $0.25 games HERE. Who knows, you may turn that $2 entry fee into a $500 payout if you do enough research, that's how I made my bankroll and now I'm free rolling with over $1,000 of winnings.

 

They will match your initial deposit ($100 deposit = $100 bonus) over time and get you started with a free ticket to the $2 guaranteed prize pool. Now's a great time to get started with huge College Basketball games later this month and Daily MLB action starting in April.

 

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 

 

 

 

 

 

Tonight, Thursday March 20, 2014

 

 

 

Game to Target:

 

·       Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets (-7): O/U – 213

With Dwight Howard already ruled out, this game should possess a ton of value on both sides of the ball. The two starting centers, Omer Asik for the Rockets, and Gorgui Dieng, who will likely start for the injured Nikola Pekovic for Minnesota, are must plays at near the minimum price. Both of them have around 25-FP floor and 40+ FP upside. The rest of the Rockets should also benefit from Howard's absence, as Terrence Jones, Patrick Beverley, and Chandler Parsons make more of an effort to rebound, and James Harden takes more shots when the Rockets host a Wolves squad that is far superior to the Jazz team they crushed without D12 on Monday. 

 

The Wolves are coming off a a difficult OT loss over Dallas, and may be a little gassed, but Kevin Love is one player that you shouldn't bet against. He's determined to prove the naysayers (who claim he can't win close games) wrong, and Howard's absence gives his stock a slight boost as he should be able to snag a few more boards. The Wolves score 106.3 PPG (4th most in the NBA) and most of that comes from Love and Kevin Martin. While Ricky Rubio is coming off a huge triple double, I will still fade him considering Patrick Beverley is in infinitely better defender than Jose Calderon and Rubio hasn't shown the ability to put two good games together all season. Dieng is the best value play on Minnesota, with Corey Brewer (47 mins last night) and J.J. Barea providing some upside as punt plays. The Wolves only played 8 guys last night, so it will be interesting to see how Rick Adelman breaks down the minutes tonight. Either way, this game should have a combined score of over 220 with both starting centers likely inactive. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

Point Guard

 

John Wall (WAS) vs. POR: $9100

 

I'm assuming the Russell Westbrook rests on the first half of a B2B set tonight considering the Thunder face a Cavs team that may be without their top two perimeter scorers if Dion Waiters (back, hip) is inactive. OKC faces a tougher Raptors team tomorrow and may save Westy for that matchup, but if he is active, he's a far superior play to Wall for $100 cheaper.

 

That being said, Wall is not going to be a slouch tonight. He's coming off a game where he got thoroughly out played by Isaiah Thomas (not for the first time) and fouled out after a frustrating 34 minutes of play. Thankfully for Wall, he gets to face a Portland team that gives up the 4th most FPPG (43.14) to opposing PGs this season and could definitely bounce back. He had been on a tear prior to Tuesday's slip up, and Damian Lillard will be far more concerned with firing back on the other end than stopping Wall. The Blazers used to deploy Nic Batum on opposing PGs to start the game, but with Aldridge out, Batum is basically playing PF and they may not be able to sacrifice his presence on the interior. Wall should be safe for a double double in a high-scoring road game. 

 

Values: If we're assuming Westbrook is out, Reggie Jackson is certainly in play at $4900. However, I actually prefer his opponent, Jarrett Jack at $4700, as Jack is a better defender than Kyrie Irving and will likely shoulder more offensive responsibilities than RJax will. 

 

Patrick Beverley is a solid play for $4700 as well. He produced over 33 DK points in both appearances earlier this week and clearly made an effort to contribute on the boards with Howard out on Monday. 

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

James Harden (HOU) vs. MIN: $9800

Harden may be the best stud available tonight considering the price. Dwight Howard missed his first game of the season on Monday, but we didn't get a chance to see the Beard carry the load as he attempted just 10 FGs in 27 minutes and let the young Rockets coast to victory over the hapless Jazz. He missed one matchup with the Wolves and scored just 19 PTs on 4 of 14 FG shooting in the other meeting, but Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the league and guarding the perimeter and Harden can definitely penetrate at will against this squad. He will be needed to shoulder a heavy offensive load with Minnesota possessing a potent offense, and if this game goes down to the wire, could definitely break 60 DK points. 

 

 

Values: 

 

Trevor Ariza could bounce back along with John Wall and is still relatively cheap at $5800. Both Jarrett Jack and Pat Beverley are SG eligible, and Dion Waiters is still a solid play at $5400 if he's active.

 

For low-end values, I wouldn't take a chance on prop-starter Dorell Wright at $3300. Mo Williams seems to be the main beneficiary of LMA's absence and should exceed value at $4000.

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. CLE: $11,500

Please note that I'm writing this column under the premise that Westbrook sits tonight and not tomorrow. If Westy plays in Cleveland, I would not advise spending an absurd amount on Durant in a likely blowout, yet as we saw when the Mavs destroyed the Thunder on Sunday, OKC is not invincible when they're missing their PG. Durant was literally un-fadeable for a few weeks while Westbrook was out, and was on pace for another MVP-caliber performance on Sunday until the Thunder ended up down nearly 30 (no fault of his). Expect him to have his way with a Cleveland defense that coughs up the 4th most FPPG (39.31) to opposing SFs and may be without Luol Deng (ankle). That would leave Alonzo Gee to deal with KD, and another easy 30 would certainly be in the cards.

 

Your mid-tier options are Nic Batum, Kevin Martin, Chandler Parsons and the mercurial Bucks (Ilyasova and Middleton). I'd recommend paying up for KD or risking K-Mart gets hot in a GPP, while Batum provides a safe floor for 50/50 and H2H games.

 

 

Values:  Draymond Green is another injury replacement that may not start if Andrew Bogut returns, but should play heavy minutes with Andre Iguodala out. At $4400 he's a very safe play that should produce 25-35 FPs, but may not blow up for much more.

 

If Deng sits, Alonzo Gee is a suitable punt play at $3000, and Andre Roberson is a very low-upside minimum play on the Thunder. 

 

 

 

Power Forward

 

Kevin Love (MIN) vs. HOU: $11,300

It's a bit ridiculous recommending the two most expensive players on the board tonight, but after crafting with lineups for a bit I've found that there is enough value (assuming Pekovic is out) to play both Kevins tonight. Beware that Love's scoring numbers are generally down on 0 days of rest, but BE aware that he went for 31 PTs and 10 REB in the second half of Minnesota's last B2B and has a fantastic matchup tonight. Houston coughs up the 4th most FPPG (45.31) to opposing PFs this season and Love is averaging a solid 29 PTs and 12.5 REB in two meetings with the Rockets this season. Now that the Rockets are missing their best paint defender and rebounder in Dwight Howard, Love could exceed those averages as he tries to lead the Wolves to an improbable road win and keep them in the playoff hunt. 

 

 

Values: I like David Lee as an upper-tier play for 50/50 and H2H formats. At $7300 he may have a hard time justifying that price tag unless Andrew Bogut is out, in which case he would likely rebound the ball more and post a hefty double double. 

 

Terrence Jones is a highly recommended play at $4800. He's probably not going to drop 49.25 DK points again, but should exceed value against the Wolves with D12 out tonight. 

 

Drew Gooden just keeps on wowing people in Washington by hitting threes, boarding up, and playing solid all around ball. He's getting 25+ MPG and is just $3700, which makes him a solid punt play in a fast-paced matchup with the Blazers. 

 

 

Center

 

Robin Lopez (POR) vs. WAS: $5700

There's really no reason to pay up at center tonight with two great value options near the bottom of the barrel, but if you want a consistent mid-tier play, Lopez is definitely worth a look. Assuming Aldridge is still out, and he's highly questionable for tonight's game, Lopez will get more touches on offense and more REB/BLK on defense as he likely posts a solid double double. The matchup isn't great and his ceiling is somewhat low, but he can help round out an LU with a nearly guaranteed 30+ DK points. 

 

 

Values: Gorgui Dieng was solid with 29.75 DK points in just 25 minutes, and his price dropped to $3100 for tonight. As long as Pekovic is out, he's a great value play.

 

Omer Asik may be 100% owned on DK tonight and you have to be on the right side of that number. He is an elite rebounder and decent shot blocker that will almost certainly justify his $3500 price tag. 

 

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier


Edited by nweitzer7, 20 March 2014 - 09:07 AM.


#2 Scott Atkins

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Posted 20 March 2014 - 08:05 PM

Great call on my man Gorky Dieng!!! He's really been playing well. That salary has to come up now.


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