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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.21.14

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#1 nweitzer7



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Posted 21 March 2014 - 09:04 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.21.14



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They will match your initial deposit ($100 deposit = $100 bonus) over time and get you started with a free ticket to the $2 guaranteed prize pool. Now's a great time to get started with huge College Basketball games later this month and Daily MLB action starting in April.



Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)


$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 





Tonight, Friday March 21, 2014




Holy high-scoring night! With so much blatant value (Dieng, Asik, Cavs) it's little surprise that it took 320+ DK points to cash in a lot of pools on Thursday, but it still seems strange when you hang over 300 on the scoreboard and don't cash. With the Lakers and Sixers playing tonight you'd think tonight could be another high-scoring evening, and let's make sure we get on the right side of those scores with some research. 



Games to Target:


·       New York Knicks (-12.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers: O/U – 210

These teams met 11 days ago and the Knicks won by 13, but the game was really much closer than the final score would indicate. Carmelo Anthony (22 PTs on 9 of 24 shooting) struggled with his shot, and had a generally lackadaisical attitude that prevented him from chasing a triple double. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Amare Stoudemire led the Knicks with 28 and 23 PTs respectively, as the gift of the Sixers defense gave away plenty of FPs. With Philly on the verge of an historic losing streak, I'd expect another relatively tough game for the Knicks, which means there is no reason to fade their starters in a plus matchup. Playing Carmelo for $10,200 is a bit of a gamble, but Tyson Chandler (who missed the last meeting) and Amare Stoudemire should provide a great floor/ceiling combo in the lower mid-tier range. J.R. Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr. are your GPP plays, as one of them is likely to go off against the league's worst defense.


Thanks to an assist on the final play of the game, Michael Carter-Williams posted a triple double in New York 11 days ago, and should fill up the stat sheet again as he plays heavy minutes tonight. I'd still prefer Thaddeus Young for $200 cheaper considering he is a far more polished pro and his offense is more of a guarantee. Tony Wroten is coming off a very solid game against the Bulls defense in which he played a team high 42 minutes. He's definitely flashed some upside this season and put up 31.25 DK points in the previous meeting, if he starts at SG again he's a decent gamble at $4800. Henry Sims isn't a preferred play, but could be a solid at $4300. 



·       Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5) @ Toronto Raptors: O/U – 204

There are a ton of appealing games on the schedule tonight, but this contest in Toronto is appealing because it almost certainly will go down to the wire. We're getting into the dog days of the season but both of these teams have a lot on the line, which makes their matchup one to target.


The Thunder are on the second half of a B2B set and haven't looked unbeatable lately, while the Raptors have won 6 of their last 7 at home. This feisty Toronto team will face the challenge of containing KD and Westbrook head on, and you can expect their dynamic backcourt of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry to respond with big games. DeRozan is especially appealing due to the Thunder's horrendous defense against SGs lately, and Terrence Ross could always emerge as a wildcard for Toronto. Amir Johnson has shown some consistency for the Raptors, and with Pat Patterson out and Jonas Valancunias questionable, he may get extended minutes tonight.


If you're considering playing Durant and/or Westbrook against one of the league's best defenses, just look at what they did on Monday night. Westy came within a REB and AST of a triple double and Durant dropped his usual 30 PTs and 12 REB against the stout Bulls defense, so a matchup with Toronto shouldn't scare you off the superstars. Westbrook's price is incredibly appealing on DraftKings, which probably makes him a superior play. Serge Ibaka is just a safe play as he won't attempt many shots with both of studs active, Caron Butler is a decent value play that is getting minutes, but not always producing, and Reggie Jackson isn't entirely out of play at $4900. The Thunder are experimenting with different lineups and when Ibaka moved to the 5, everything shifted for them which would allow RJ to log more minutes at SG. 



·       Washington Wizards (-6.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers: O/U – 219

The Lakers and 76ers play tonight? There isn't much else to say except, target those games. The Wizards are on the second half of a B2B set and tend to play down to the competition anyway, so this game could definitely stay close and might lack defense on both ends of the court. Marcin Gortat (back) was a surprise scratch last night and his absence helped Drew Gooden keep his revival tour going with 32.75 DK points. As long as he's priced at just $3700 he's a great play, especially against the Lakers. Trevor Ariza has been playing understated ball lately, but could turn up in a matchup with his former team, and John Wall is a lock for 40+ DK points against this porous defense. If Gortat plays he's a solid option at $6900, but the injury concerns should likely force you onto other options. 


Mike D'Antoni's squad actually hung around against the Spurs in their last home game, and the Wizards present far less of a challenge. Kendall Marshall surprisingly played under 30 minutes as Xavier Henry came off the bench and matched the Spurs high-octane offense by playing shoot-first PG for the Lakers, but Marshall is still an appealing play at just $4700 and he could find success against a tired Wizards squad. Henry is a solid punt play at $3500 as he will come off the bench and look to score, Ryan Kelly is still a safe play at $5000 and Wes Johnson could exceed value on his $4200 price tag. Jodie Meeks is too expensive at $5500 due to lack of peripherals and there's little reason to spend $8300 on Pau Gasol with so many other options in that range.




 Outside The Box:


·      Reports are that Andre Drummond looked very healthy in practice yesterday and could return to action against the Suns tonight. He'd be a risky option considering he may not play a ton of minutes, but is a relative bargain at just $7100.

·    DeMarcus Cousins could run into a laundry list of problems as the Kings host the Spurs tonight. San Antonio could put the clamps on him, Duncan could get him into foul trouble, or he could just melt down after getting overly frustrated. He's simply too much of a risk in this matchup to spend $9700 on. 

·    Joakim Noah had everyone nervous with a very lackluster first half against the 76ers, and people may avoid him tonight. However, he seems to turn up in competitive games and should embrace Indiana's physical style of play. He's still worth a look as a safe play with upside regardless of the matchup. 





Player Recommendations:


Point Guard


John Wall (WAS) vs. LAL: $9100


Wall has had three plus matchups in a row and found himself featured on Inside The Box in all three. After disappointing against his personal kryptonite (Isaiah Thomas), Wall got on a roll with 54 DK points against Damian Lillard and the Blazers last night and could exceed value again as he takes on the Lakers tonight. That would be the Lakers squad that allows the MOST FPPG (50.09) to opposing PGs over the last two weeks and couldn't stop a D-League team right now. With an O/U around 220, Wall should be able to double double with a ton of assists and rebounds in this fast-paced game. There are some concerns about the Wizards coming off a tough loss last night, but Wall has been solid on 0 days rest with per game averages of 22 PTs and 8.7 AST while shooting a season best 46.2% from the field in 16 such games. He went for 31 PTs, 6 REB, 9 AST, 3 STL and 56.5 DK points in a previous meeting with the Lakers this season and a similar line is definitely within reach tonight. 


Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. TOR: $8800

Along with Anthony Davis, Westbrook is the play of the day at this price. There are no concerns about his playing time as long as the Thunder are utilizing caution by resting him on the first half of B2B sets. He should log 32-35 minutes in a close game, and is obviously one of the premier FP per minute producers in the league. There's simply no explanation for his price dropping from $9700 to $8800, and you almost have to play when his value threshold is around 50 DK points. Westy managed to post 42.25 DK points against the stellar Bulls defense on Monday, do while the Raptors D is solid, they can't completely limit the super-athletic PG. Expect another statistically impressive performance from RW as the Thunder look for B2B road wins.



Values: Randy Foye and Aaron Brooks both have to be on your radar at $4500 and $4600. Brooks may be in play regardless of Ty Lawson's (groin, illness) status tonight, but would be a must play if his status is murky. Foye has a good chance to exceed value either way, and will receive a boost if Wilson Chandler (hip) is still out. 


D.J. Augustin is playing well and getting around 30 MPG for the Bulls. He provides a scoring spark off the bench and could spark your LU for $4300 as the Pacers defense is most vulnerable to PGs. 


As mentioned in Games to Target, Tony Wroten is also a solid mid-range value at $4800 and looks like he will start with James Anderson questionable for tonight's game. 



Shooting Guard


DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. OKC: $7900

It may be coincidental, but the Raptors are absolute magnets for close games over the last few weeks and DeRozan almost always posts huge lines when their contests go down to the wire. He broke 50 DK points in an OT loss to the Hawks on Tuesday, and had a huge game (along with everyone else) in Toronto's 3OT loss to the Wizards a few weeks ago. He's averaging 30 PTs, 6.5 REB, and 5 AST over his last two games and appears to have broken out of a brief slump right in time for a competitive matchup with a Thunder team that happens to be coughing up the MOST FPPG by far (46.04) to opposing SGs over the last two weeks. They simply don't have a perimeter stopper with Thabo Sefolosha out, and the Raptors should look to exploit that matchup all night long as they try to match OKC's efficient offense. It may be a hunch, but if this game goes down to the wire and even requires extra time, DeRozan would be one of the biggest beneficiaries. 



Tyreke Evans (NOP) vs. TOR: $6200

Tyreke again? After he failed to hit value with just 29 DK points against the Raptors on Wednesday? That's probably what you're thinking, but two things could swing in Evans' favor tonight. Toronto is an excellent defensive team on the perimeter that was able to key in on Tyreke's penetration with Anthony Davis inactive. Tonight, the Pelicans should have their phenom back in the middle to take some of the attention away from Evans, and the Hawks happen to be one of the worst defensive teams on the perimeter in the league. If Kyle Korver starts on Tyreke it's going to be a problem for Atlanta, and even defensive standout DeMarre Carroll may have trouble staying in front of him. He's $800 cheaper than he was on Wednesday and if he exceeds his previous games' production by even a little bit, will hit value tonight. 





Shaun Livingston isn't a flashy play, but anytime you can play a starter at $4100 you have to consider it. The Nets host the Celtics in what should be a testy game, and Livingston seems to thrive in those types of situations. 


On the other end of the floor, Avery Bradley returned to form with 23 PTs and 6 3PTM against the Heat on Wednesday. He's usually solid regardless of the matchup and is relatively cheap at $4500.



Small Forward


Carmelo Anthony (NYK) vs. PHI: $10,200

For the third time this season, DFS grinders are faced with the option of playing the biggest volume shooter in the league against the NBA's worst defense, but have to be concerned that he won't need to be a volume shooter if the game gets out of hand. That's exactly what happened when New York hosted Philadelphia 11 days ago, and Melo finished with a disappointing 41.25 DK points in 32 minutes of work. If you're going to spend 10K on Anthony, you'd like a guarantee that he logs more minutes tonight, and while you can't get that, you can assume he won't shot 9 of 22 from the field and 0 of 7 from 3PT range against the Sixers again. LeBron is an enticing option at the same price as long as he's active, but on DraftKings scoring system, I think you have to take the shoot-first superstar in Anthony.  


Josh Smith (DET) vs. PHO: $7800


Reverse-Fade Josh Smith tonight if you want to swing for the fences in a GPP. The headcase got himself tossed from Wednesday's contest after getting murdered by THIS Timofey Mozgov slam, so after nursing his ego on the day off, Smoove should look to avenge that embarrassment by dunking on a Phoenix Sun tonight. The Suns struggle to contain athletic big men, and Smith produced 25 PTs, 11 REB and 5 AST in a previous meeting with Phoenix this season. Combine those positive splits with the potential absence of Andre Drummond and the extra motivation from Wednesday, and there's a chance he bounces back in a big way. 


Values:  Trevor Ariza does a little bit of everything and players that do a little bit of everything end up producing a lot against the Lakers. He's a solid play in most formats for $5800.


Gerald Green doesn't do much but score, but he's just as likely as Eric Bledsoe and Goran Dragic are to go off. For $4700, he's worth the risk of no peripheral stats in case he has a huge scoring game off the bench. 


If the Thunder try to key in on DeRozan, and perhaps switch KD onto him, Terrence Ross could benefit from OKC's terrible defense against SGs. At $3900 he's a decent punt play. 



Power Forward


Anthony Davis (NOP) vs. ATL: $10,300

Coming off a stomach-ache, Davis is now $700 cheaper and in a far superior matchup than he was on Wednesday. Atlanta has been hopelessly outmatched at the center position since Al Horford went down, and nobody on their roster has a chance to keep the Brow from snagging a ton of rebounds. Assuming reports state that he's back to good health, Davis should have a huge game against a Hawks team that is allowing the 6th most FPPG (46.85), 5th most RPG (15.83) and allowing centers to shoot a league worst 61.9% from the field over the last two weeks. There's was talk of the Brow starting at the 5 with Aminu moving into the SLU at PF, and if that's the case, you can boost his matchup even more as he scores at will over Pero Antic or Elton Brand. 



Amir Johnson (TOR) vs. OKC: $6100

Johnson was forced to play center with Jonas Valancunias (back) out on Wednesday night, and was productive with 17 PTs, 9 REB and 37.75 DK points. He has a chance to exceed value again tonight and is worth a look in GPPs if Jo-Val can't go. Serge Ibaka is a decent defender and solid rebounder, but is generally overrated as an interior presence. Johnson showed the ability to step up in big games last season and is rounding into form with per game averages of 14.3 PTs, 7.1 REB, and 1.2 BLK in 9 March contests. Toronto is surprisingly in third place in the East and the atmosphere should be intense inside their arena tonight, so we'll see if Amir can step up as their most capable big man.  



Values: Taj Gibson double doubled on Wednesday and should be solid again off the bench tonight. He's just $5500 and while he doesn't start, he usually finishes as he provides much more effort than Carlos Boozer down the stretch. 


Amare Stoudemire powered through the Sixers defense with ease 11 days ago, and his production was slightly inflated with Tyson Chandler inactive. However, at $4500, he has a good chance to meet value even in a reserve role as he looks to score every time he touches the ball.





Marc Gasol (MEM) vs. MIA: $7600

At 7'1", 265 lbs. Marc Gasol is a truly gigantic human. The Heat are one of the worst rebounding teams in the history of the NBA and have no chance of matching up with him on the low block. That may be why Greg Oden was inactive on Wednesday, as they are likely going to start him at center tonight and move Chris Bosh over to PF to deal with Randolph, but Oden is still no match for the skilled Gasol. Expect a double double with plenty of peripheral stats as Gasol tries to lead his team to a road win over the defending champs. If you needed reminding, the Heat are coughing up the MOST FPPG (56.23), RPG (17.83), and PPG (26.66) to opposing centers over the last two weeks and very few big men are as versatile as the younger Gasol. 



Tyson Chandler (NYK) vs. IND: $5300

If you're swinging for the fences you may want to pay up for Amir Johnson or Andre Drummond at center, but for $5300, it doesn't get much safer than Chandler. He did his thing grabbing 14 REB and attempting just 5 shots in a close win over the Pacers on Wednesday, but as the Knicks move from the league's best defense to the league's worst, the number of easy tip-ins and dunk attempts should rise for Chandler. Philly is giving up the 2nd most FPPG (49.44) to opposing centers this week and their blistering pace usually leads to a ton of rebounds. Their young guards also take the ball into traffic often, and that's why centers average a league-best 3.09 BPG against the Sixers. This all bodes well for Chandler's status tonight, as 30+ DK points seems like a virtual certainty. 



Values: Brad Stevens is tinkering at an all-time rate right now, and none of the Celtics big men are particularly enticing. Sullinger has upside at $5700 and Kris Humphries may play well against his old team, but they are only GPP plays as either one could end up logging 20 minutes or less. 


Drew friggin Gooden. The man came back from the brink of obscurity to post a few incredible lines in a row and should continue to roll against the Lakers tonight. At $3700 he becomes an even more enticing play with Marcin Gortat (back) "highly questionable" for tonight's tilt.



Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7


Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)


$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier

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