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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.22.14

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#1 nweitzer7



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Posted 22 March 2014 - 09:55 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.22.14



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Tonight, Saturday March 22, 2014






Games to Target:


·       Houston Rockets (-8) @ Cleveland Cavs: O/U – 204

This line seems a bit erroneous, especially if Dwight Howard is out, because the Rockets are a far inferior team on the road this season. They average 104.9 PPG and give up 105 PPG on the road this season (sounds like close games), whereas they score 108.5 PPG and allow just 98.8 PPG in Houston this season. Patrick Beverley is their only plus defender on the perimeter, which means either Dion Waiters or Jarrett Jack will abuse James Harden or Jeremy Lin at the other guard position. Waiters is coming off a big scoring night, and is worth a look on DraftKings despite his inefficient play. Jack, however, is more of a gamble considering his simply not that talented anymore and may get the Beverley treatment. Matt Dellavedova could end up getting extended run at PG, Alonzo Gee is worth a look if Luol Deng (ankle) is out, while Spencer Hawes and Anderson Varejao seem to be entering a troublesome time share that may be best to avoid.



James Harden is doing what he needs to do to help his team win, but that hasn’t involved exceeding value on DFS sites lately. He’s now available at a relative discount ($9400) and may be worth a look as he takes on a Cavs team that he dominated earlier this season. Beverley and Terrence Jones remain solid mid-tier plays that receive a boost if Howard is out, and Asik would be a near must-play if D12 can’t go.




·        Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls (-16.5) O/U – 196

Whoa Vegas. The odds makers seem to ignore the fact that Philly lost four of their last five by single digits including an 8-point loss to Chicago and their guaranteeing a blowout this time around. I happen to agree on that count, and think that Chicago may run up the score at home and push this game over the low O/U of 196. I mean, Philly is giving up over 111 PPG this season. Joakim Noah is a safe play, as usual, but he may top out at 40 DK points in a blowout. If you agree that Chicago stomps the Sixers on the second half of a B2B set, Taj Gibson might be the big man to target. D.J. Augustin would also get extended run, while Jimmy Butler pretty much plays the whole game no matter what. 


The Sixers are going to keep fighting, and now they’ve lost their third best scorer in Tony Wroten. That only means more volume for MCW and Thaddeus Young, who are both safe plays due to that situation at around $8000. James Anderson’s shot didn’t return with him last night, but he should play more than 34 minutes now that Wroten is out and is worth a look at just $3800. Henry Sims double doubled last night and is just $4300, but don’t get too optimistic about this matchup.


·        Detroit Pistons @ Los Angeles Clippers (-13) O/U – 215.5

The Clippers are almost unbeatable at home this season (29-5), and they’ve been off since Monday while the Pistons played last night. That explains the generous spread, and I highly doubt Detroit could pull out a win, but as DFS players, we don’t need a win, just a reasonably close game through four quarters. This Detroit team, led by their monstrous front line, is capable of lighting up the scoreboard in fast-paced games. Brandon Jennings is still bothered by a toe injury as he played just 14 minutes last night, so Will Bynum and Rodney Stuckey are both in play. Andre Drummond is back and cheaper than usual at $7100, while Josh Smith is always a worthwhile gamble at $7800.


Most value in a projected blowout falls on the winning side, and the Clippers have a ton of appealing options tonight. Honestly, if you rolled out their entire SLU (Collison, Paul, Barnes, Blake, and DJA) I think you’d have a solid point total. Jamal Crawford may return, but will likely play under 15 minutes as they are cautious with his recurring calf injury, J.J. Redick is still out, and that leaves Danny Granger and Glen Davis as the sole scoring options off the bench. Even if the Clippers get up 20, their starters will continue to fill it up through three quarters and end up with solid FP totals on the night.





 Outside The Box:


·      It’s the second night of a B2B for the Spurs, so keep an eye on news this afternoon in case some of their older players sit. It’s probably too risky to play Parker, Duncan, or Ginobili considering sometimes they get “Popped” without any prior warning.

·      Charlotte is playing elite defense once again as they try to secure a playoff seed in the East. They’ve destroyed the fantasy value of their opponents lately and both Damian Lillard and Nic Batum seem unlikely to exceed value at an upper-tier price.

·      Kosta Koufos will be a popular play if Marc Gasol (knee) is inactive tonight, but remember Jon Leuer was the biggest beneficiary the last time Gasol missed a game, so he would be an intriguing against-the-grain GPP play.





Player Recommendations:


Point Guard


Chris Paul (LAC) vs. DET: $9800


It’s tough to put a finger on the exact issue, but CP3 “hasn’t looked like himself” since returning from his shoulder injury. Maybe he’s been tentative on his drives, or reluctant to shoot considering how well Blake Griffin has been playing, but he hasn’t been the PG that came out of the gate averaging around 15 dimes and routinely flirted with 70 FP nights.


Well after 4 and a half days of rest, I’d expect Paul and the whole Clippers team to come out strong and potentially run the Pistons right out of the gym in this contest. If that’s the case, Paul would just be a good 50/50 play, but if Detroit can compete for the second straight night after playing well in Phoenix in Friday, CP3 may remind us all why he’s called the Point God.



Kemba Walker (CHA) vs. POR: $7800

Aside from last Friday’s atrocious showing against the Wolves, Kemba has been very solid at home all season as he averages 19 PPG and 6.6 APG in Charlotte compared to 16.2 PPG and 4.9 APG on the road. Unfortunately, Kemba didn’t channel College Kemba and start annihilating teams as soon as March Madness started…YET. However, when he faces the terrible defense of Damian Lillard at home tonight, it might not matter whether he’s inspired by Uconn’s OT win on Thursday night (and potential upset tonight). That’s because the Blazers pace, combined with Lillard’s lazy D, has allowed opposing PGs to log the most PPG (22.31) and 4th most FPPG (43.10) this season. Kemba did not play well in his sole meeting with the Blazers in early January, but if you feel like gambling in a GPP, he could turn that around in a big way tonight.



Value: D.J. Augustin is once again a fantastic play against the 76ers, and now he’s just $4300. His speed is a serious issue for that D-League team and he should remain in the game if it turns into a blowout.


Darren Collison should return to action tonight and is apparently going to start even if Jamal Crawford (calf) is able to return in a limited role. There’s nothing like the two-day illness discount, as Collison’s price has dropped from $5400 to $4100 in a great matchup.


Matt Dellevadova is a GPP only punt play at $3300.




Shooting Guard


Steph Curry (GSW) vs. SAS: $9800

Steph is back to his old self and is averaging 30.3 PTs on 56.8% FG shooting over his last three appearances. He played 40 minutes the last time the Warriors were seriously challenged, and you have to assume that the Spurs will play Golden State tough in Oracle Arena tonight. Despite the best efforts of Gregg Poppovich, Curry was electric when these two teams met in the playoffs last season, and picked up where he left of as he dropped 30 PTs, 15 AST, and 65 DK points in his sole meeting with San Antonio this season. The Spurs are still a dangerous team because they are light years ahead of anyone else in terms of team offense, but their defense is not what it used to be. They’ve allowed 100+ PTs in 13 of their last 19 contests, and have really struggled against teams with winning records. San Antonio is also on the second half of a B2B set, which means any of their experienced players could get “Popped” and that leave the door open for Steph to dice up some backup guards. Either way, he should have a stellar game.



Dion Waiters (CLE) vs. HOU: $6200

Waiters may not be 100% healthy, but he’s the number one option for the Cavs right now and that’s not easy to find for a mid-tier price. He’s attempted 44 FGs while filling in for Kyrie Irving in two starts, and if you think his 38% shooting from the field is going to deter him from chucking, you must not know much about Dion Waiters. He will look to penetrate and kick or score at every opportunity, and if James Harden is going to guard him, that opportunity will arise every possession. Houston gives up the 4th most PPG (22.37) and 7th most FPPG (36.47) to opposing SGs on the season, and most of that has to do with Harden’s lackadaisical defense. The Rockets are much worse away from home, and Cleveland showed some fight against the Thunder with only 8 players available (9 if you count D-League call up James Edwards), and if they’re going to compete tonight, they’ll need Waiters to drop around 30 PTs again.






Patrick Beverley and Jarrett Jack will face off tonight, and both are decent safe plays at $4800 and $5200.


Mo Williams isn’t a preferred play, but he will have the opportunity to play more minutes than Dorell Wright if he plays well. At $4000 Mo is a little safer and has a little more upside than Wright at $3800.





Small Forward


Thaddeus Young (PHI) vs. CHI: $7800

Classic Thaddeus Young. He scored 21 PTs on 6 of 21 shooting from the field last night, but still produces 42.75 DK PTs, because, neither the 76ers nor DraftKings cares how many shots he bricks. He’s been unbelievably consistent with 38.75+ FPs in five straight games against essentially the league’s best defenses (IND x2, MEM, CHI). Now he faces Chicago again as the Sixers are creeping closer and closer to a historically bad losing streak. Michael Carter-Williams may have gotten the best of the Knicks twice, but I’m stubbornly expecting the Bulls to shut him down, while Young continues to produce on both ends of the floor for about 40 DK points.



Tyreke Evans (NOP) vs. MIA: $6200


Tyreke didn’t make the most of a plus matchup with the Hawks, and his value may have taken a slight hit considering Kyle Korver was inactive and his replacement was a much better defender by default. Yet ‘Reke still produced 37.75 FPs and exceed value by a slight margin, so when you consider he’s still available at $6200, and is running the show for the Pelicans, he’s an intriguing play as the Pelicans host the Heat tonight. Miami is one of the most aggressive defensive teams in the NBA, and are capable of forcing plenty of turnovers from a primary ballhandler like Evans. At the same time, they lack rim protection, and often decide to “take nights off” either literally in the case of D-Wade, or figuratively, in that they don’t always play hard for the entire game on B2B sets. Crazy things happen this time of year, and if the New Orleans is going to beat the champs at home tonight, both the Brow and Evans will have to be on top of their game.



Values:  Kyle Singler is steadily producing as he plays big minutes for the Pistons. At $4100 he’s a decently safe play.


Draymond Green will continue to see extended playing time with Andre Iguodala inactive and Harrison Barnes ineffective. He’s just $4000, and I have a feeling this matchup with the Spurs will play to his strengths.




Power Forward


Blake Griffin (LAC) vs. DET: $10,000

If you watched the Clippers-Nuggets game on Monday night you had to be surprised by two things: That Doc Rivers left a tired Blake Griffin in for the game’s final 15 minutes, and how that tired Blake Griffin was still able to produce 55.5 DK points while playing one of his worst games of the season. If that’s what he can do when he’s gassed, Blake can obviously blow the doors off a Pistons team that is somehow allowing the 6th most FPPG (46.65) to opposing PFs over the last two weeks. For some reason the Clips have only had two 3+ day breaks this season, but Blake has come out hot with per game averages of 29 PTs, 9.5 REB, and 6 AST in those situations, so another big game could be coming.



Taj Gibson (CHI) vs. PHI: $5500

Considering I’m recommending a lot of expensive players, we can mix it up with a mid-range value play like Gibson. Taj started out slowly on Wednesday night, but ended up bullying the 76ers for 19 PTs, 13 REB and 35.75 DK points. He’s not playing reserves’ minutes right now with 30 MPG over his last two appearances, and he’s young enough to play with the second unit if this game gets out of hand early. The Sixers are playing with passion as they try to avoid the dubious honor of the league’s longest losing streak, but Chicago is a monster at home since the all-star break and could be motivated to prove that there is plenty of separation between themselves and Philly. I’d expect Gibson and Joakim Noah to swat quite a few shots and send the home crowd into a frenzy as this game gradually gets out of hand.




Values:  Terrence Jones may have developed some confidence with Dwight Howard out that he can use in Cleveland tonight. Tristan Thompson is pretty much an inferior version of T-Jones (assuming he’s actually left-handed) and could get bullied by the Kentucky product. He’s still a relative value play at $5100.


Kyle O’Quinn is not a flashy play at $4100, but he’ll start for the Magic and could have a solid game against a vulnerable Jazz front court.







Anthony Davis (NOP) vs. MIA: $10,300

The Brow’s return from a one-game absence wasn’t spectacular, but he put in work and finished with 54.25 DK points in 44 minutes of work. He told reporters that he wasn’t at full strength as he is still battling flu-like symptoms, which is a scary thought considering how he man-handled the Hawks for 34 PTs and 11 REB. Now he returns home, where he’s averaging 23.6 PTs, 11.4 REB, and a whopping 3.96 BLK per game this season, as compared to 19.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 1.96 BPG on the road. He’s also taking on a Miami team that has been eviscerated by opposing centers for 50.47 FPPG (Most in the NBA) over the last two weeks. Nobody can stop Davis these days, but the worst rebounding team in the league is certainly no match for his incredible wingspan.



Andre Drummond (DET) vs. LAC: $7100

Drummond didn’t look bothered by his neck injury as he played 36 minutes and grabbed 16 boards in his return to action last night. He produced 37.5 DK points, and that should be a nice warmup run for a high-scoring battle with the Clippers tonight. Doc Rivers’ team somehow gives up the most PPG (21.21) and 5th most RPG (14.68) to opposing centers this season, and for $7100, you have to consider Drummond and his lofty floor/ceiling. DeAndre Jordan and Drummond will meet at the summit all night as they battle for the league’s rebounding title, and maybe the young gun ends up snagging a few more.



Values: Dwight Howard is 50/50 to play tonight. Clearly, if he can’t you should consider Omer Asik at $4200.


Tim Duncan also may sit tonight, but regardless, Boris Diaw has been productive and is worth a look at $3900.




Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7


Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)


$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier



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