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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.23.14 (Sunday Version)


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 23 March 2014 - 07:01 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.23.14 

 

 

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$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

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Today, Sunday March 23, 2014

 

 

 

 

Game to Target:

 

 

·       Orlando Magic @ Los Angeles Lakers (-2): O/U – 216

It goes without saying that DFS players will target games involving the Lakers these days as they play at a blistering pace and are absolutely inept on the defensive end. The Magic are not always able to oblige teams that want to turn the game into a track meet, but if Victor Oladipo is running the show at PG again, they should fly up and down the court as well. Tobias Harris, Arron Afflalo, and even Mo Harkless would benefit from Nelson’s absence with more playing time and would finish on the break while rebounding more shots due to the inflate pace.

 

Mike D’Antoni loves to play fast, and is now forced to play through his one healthy PG- Kendall Marshall. Nick Young is back just in time to launch as many shots as he can in limited minutes, and Wes Johnson should make his return from injury in order to start at SF. Kent Bazemore is relevant now that Xavier Henry (wrist) is injured, but not to be trusted. Watch for news about Ryan Kelly because if he’s back in the SLU, he could be a solid mid-tier value play.

 

 

 

 

 

 Outside The Box:

 

·      It’s tempting to take John Wall in yet another plus matchup during the afternoon games, but the quick Isaiah Thomas gave him problems earlier this week and Ty Lawson is even quicker, so it may be wise to pick the other side of that matchup.

·      Jarrett Jack had a great game when Kyrie Irving missed time earlier this season, then proceeded to fade away and go down with his own injury. It appears he’s running out of gas again and will be tough to trust on the second half of a B2B set.

·      Tobias Harris was absolutely awful against the Jazz last night and got benched for the third quarter. However he had his best game of the season against the Lakers in January and if Jameer Nelson is inactive tonight, watch for the Magic SLU, because if Harris is in there, he could bounce back in a big way.

 

 

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

Point Guard

 

Victor Oladipo (ORL) vs. LAL: $6200

 

It’s hard to imagine Jameer Nelson (knee) battling through injury to play in a meaningless Sunday evening game with the Lakers, and if he misses tonight’s contest, Oladipo should be in for another solid game. In two starts for Nelson he produced 32.75 and 35 DK points, but that came against two average defenses in Phoenix and Utah. Tonight he gets the mother of all enticing matchups as the Lakers give up the most FPPG (53.56), PPG (28.27), and RPG (7.1) to opposing PGs over the last two weeks. It’s not even close between the Lakers and the second worst defense against that position, and with Kendall Marshall forced into a bigger role due to Xavier Henry, Jordan Farmar, and Steve Nash being sidelined, Oladipo will be matched up against a very, very poor defender. Everything could fall the right way for the Indiana product.

 

(Early Games): John Wall is on fire but he’s $9700, for 2K less I may prefer Ty Lawson at home against Wall. I stubbornly refuse to pay 9K for Kyle Lowry.

 

 

 Values: Kendall Marshall is in line for some heavy minutes with Xavier Henry and Steve Nash both questionable for tonight’s tilt. There’s almost no one for Mike D’Antoni to bench Marshall for, so at $4500, it’s hard to turn down a player that should log around 40 minutes. 

 

Matthew Dellevadova is out playing Jarrett Jack and swinging GPPs these days. He shouldn’t be ignored at just $3500.

 

Ray McCallum would be a fantastic play at $3000 if Isaiah Thomas (wrist) can’t play tonight.

 

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Brandon Knight (MIL) vs. SAC: $7200

 

Knight continues to improve in his third season and has really been consistent for the Bucks lately. Over Milwaukee’s last three games Knight is averaging 24 PTs, 6 REB, 5.7 AST and playing 37 MPG. He’s no longer in danger of getting benched by Larry Drew on a whim, and is thriving as the Bucks number one offensive option, yet his price tag has only risen slightly despite that consistent production. The Kentucky product has around a 30 FP floor right now and enough upside to win a GPP. He’s also playing off the ball a lot since Ramon Sessions joined the team, and that bodes well for his value as the Bucks face a Kings squad that coughs up the 3rd most FPPG (37.88) to opposing SGs this season.

 

(Early Games): DeMar DeRozan owns the Hawks and is a solid 50/50 or H2H play at $8300. Eric Bledsoe is 1K less and may be ready to breakout in a great matchup with the Wolves, while there is no reason for the price increase on Trevor Ariza after he dropped just 25 DK points against the Lakers the other night.

 

 

Values:  Dion Waiters has been steady as anything in the absence of Kyrie Irving, yet due to the slightly inferior matchup, he’s $400 cheaper than he was last night. It’s hard to imagine fading him in MSG against the Knicks shoddy perimeter D.

 

Shaun Livingston isn’t showing enough upside to warrant GPP consideration, but he has a solid floor and is playing starters minutes. At $4300, he’s affordable enough to make it into some 50/50 and H2H lineups.

 

 

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Carmelo Anthony (NYK) vs. CLE: $10,500

Melo is one of the few expensive options on the board on Sunday’s short slate, but he could definitely be the highest scorer of the night as well. The Cavs were allowing the most FPPG to opposing SFs before Luol Deng joined the roster, and now they’ve improved to the point that they’re only giving up the 3rd most FPPG (39.89) to the position. Yet Deng (ankle) is questionable for tonight’s game and Alonzo Gee did not exactly impress as he picked up two fouls in one minute of guarding Kevin Durant on Thursday night. The Cavs are also playing their third game in four nights, while New York is buzzing due to the addition of Phil Jackson to the Knicks front office. Anthony torched this same team for 26 PTs and 52.25 DK points earlier this month, and could exceed that total today if this game stays close. 

 

(Early Games): Wilson Chandler, Gerald Green, and DeMarre Carroll are intriguing GPP options in the mid-tier value range. Carroll is the safest play while Chandler is the most likely to bounce back from recent quiet outings.

 

 

Values:  Tobias Harris demolished the Lakers for 28 PTs, 20 REB, and 60.5 FPs at the end of January in his best performance this season. He will cost $6400 tonight and could see more playing time if Jameer Nelson is inactive, but should be productive in a fantastic matchup regardless.  

 

Everyone but Kent Bazemore’s supporters should be excited to see Nick Young back in the Lakers lineup, and he should continue to take time from the inconsistent Bazemore in tonight’s contest. At just $4300, Young has a good chance to exceed value despite his tendency to only fill up the scoring column in the box score.

 

 

 

Power Forward

 

DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) vs. MIL: $9800

Rudy Gay (illness) and Isaiah Thomas (wrist) are both dealing with mild injuries, but Boogie would be more than happy to carry the offensive load against a weak Milwaukee front court tonight. The Bucks give up the 3rd most FPPG (46.03) to opposing centers this season and Cousins fought through foul trouble to post 21 PTs, 10 REB, 5 AST and 43.5 DK points earlier this month. With a full slate of minutes, he could definitely approach 60 DK points, especially considering he just posted 52 FPs against Tim Duncan and the Spurs. Keep an eye on news because Mike Malone hinted that Isaiah Thomas could sit for some rest, and if that’s the case, Cousins becomes an even more appealing play that will see a ton of usage.

 

(Early Games): Amir Johnson has been a beast and Jonas Valancunias returning to the lineup didn’t change that at all. He’s definitely worth $6800 against the soft Hawks.

 

 

Values:  The whole Robert Sacre starting experiment didn’t go that well for the Lakers, so maybe they go back to Ryan Kelly. If he’s starting, he’s worth a look at $4800.

 

Amare Stoudemire is way under priced at $4600 because of some concerns that he could sit to rest his knee. If he’s active, there’s no way you should overlook him in a plus matchup.

 

 

 

Center

 

 

Pau Gasol (LAL) vs. ORL: $8400

Gasol should be commended for his ability to continue playing hard for an absolutely ass-backwards franchise that has openly tried to trade him for the past few years. Yet every night, he churns out double doubles and produces 40+ FPs. Pau posted a typical line against the Magic in late January as he totaled 21 PTs, 11 REB, 6 AST and 49.75 DK points, so he clearly finds the matchup somewhat favorable. Kyle O’Quinn and Nikola Vucevic are even slower than the Spainard, so you can expect him to burn them with the jumper and then blow by them for points in the paint. The Lakers will lean on Gasol before letting him walk in free agency, and you could lean on him as well this Sunday.

 

(Early Games): Don’t overspend on Kevin Love at $11,100. He’s been good lately, but not great, and the Suns do a solid job against talented big men.

 

 

 

Values: Nikola Vucevic and Kyle O’quinn are safe plays at $7100 and $4100. Neither really impress me enough to warrant GPP consideration, despite the plus matchup, but could help keep you under the salary cap if you spend too much at the other positions.

 

Tyson Chandler is safe as ever at $5300.

 

 

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier

 

 



#2 Scott Atkins

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Posted 23 March 2014 - 08:32 AM

Great write up Nate!


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