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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.24.14


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 24 March 2014 - 07:43 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.24.14 

 

 

If you know the NBA or MLB you should really try playing Daily Fantasy Sports on DraftKings. No other DFS site can equal the size of Kings' pools and payouts, and you can get started by playing $2, $1 or even $0.25 games HERE. Who knows, you may turn that $2 entry fee into a $500 payout if you do enough research, that's how I made my bankroll and now I'm free rolling with over $1,000 of winnings.

 

They will match your initial deposit ($100 deposit = $100 bonus) over time and get you started with a free ticket to the $2 guaranteed prize pool. Now's a great time to get started with huge College Basketball games later this month and Daily MLB action starting in April.

 

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier 

 

 

 

 

 

Tonight, Monday March 24, 2014

 

 

 

·       Portland Trailblazers @ Miami Heat (NL)

Stunningly, Miami has lost 7 of their last 11 and is now 3 games behind Indiana for first place in the Eastern Conference. The defending champs are slogging through the dog days of the NBA season and may be somewhat fatigued after what amounted to a two-month offseason. Yet considering LeBron’s latest post game comments, and the inferable conclusion that he had a similar speech in the locker room, the Heat should come out looking to prove a point against the Blazers tonight. Expect James to lead the charge, with D-Wade NOW LISTED AS DOUBTFUL and the various 3pt shooters on the Heat flirting with value. Mario Chalmers and Chris Anderson are two decent options, but the Heat spread the ball around so much that their two stars (yes, I deliberately excluded Chris Bosh) are the ones worth targeting.

 

Portland lost 108-107 to Miami in a previous meeting this season, and they will have to compete without LaMarcus Aldridge tonight. Aldridge’s absence puts Nic Batum, Robin Lopez, Dorell Wright, and Mo Williams into play, while creating the possibility that Damian Lillard goes nuts in order to keep his team in the game. Lillard has yet to exceed 30 PTs or attempt more than 22 FGs with LMA inactive, but tonight could be the night he puts the team on his back and keeps this game close.

 

 

·       Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-10.5): O/U – 220

This spread may seem rather high with Russell Westbrook not necessarily ruled out, but Vegas seems to also be aware that the Nuggets are a woeful 2-9 on the second half of B2B sets this season. Their defense is usually bad, as they allow the 3rd most PPG (105.8) in the league, but Denver allows a whopping 110.9 PPG on 0 days rest and OKC has the league’s 5th best offense. If Westbrook sits, Durant has a much better chance to hit value on his crazy expensive price tag, but the biggest danger to playing KD would be a blowout. Reggie Jackson is no longer a value play, but would be worth consideration if Westy sits, and Ibaka would also get a nice boost to his value despite the fact that he’s had pretty underwhelming games against the Nuggets this season.

 

The Nuggets are really spreading around the scoring lately, and the fact that Aaron Brooks attempted more shots than Ty Lawson last night really speaks volumes to where Lawson's value is headed. They're utilizing a lot of three-guard lineups, especially with Wilson Chandler hurt, and none of those guards are truly safe, but in general, it's probably best to target value plays on Denver. Specifically, Darrell Arthur, who is available for $3200, and is considerably more talented than Anthony Randolph as a replacement for J.J. Hickson. Arthur is a gamer, and I expect him to keep the Nuggets reasonably competitive tonight with solid play on both ends of the floor. Brooks, Foye, and Evan Fournier are all worth a look if Wilson Chandler is still inactive, while Kenneth Faried is the big man of note for Denver. Don't even mention Timofey Mozgov please.

 

 

·       Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz (-1.5): O/U – 204.5

Despite the fact that they rank 29th in the league in defensive efficiency, the Jazz aren’t usually a great matchup in DFS because they don’t score much either (29th in the league in PPG) and play at the 4th slowest pace. However, when they host a Pistons team that gives up the 3rd most PPG in the NBA, and is easily the 3rd worst defense since the all-star break. Gordon Hayward and Trey Burke are slightly more appealing plays if Alec Burks is still inactive, while Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter could be productive against Detroit’s front line, which is inexplicably terrible on defense.

 

Speaking of that front line, they give plenty of points away, but will fill it up on offense and rebound in bunches at the same time. Andre Drummond and Josh Smith are more appealing plays to me, despite Greg Monroe’s recent hot streak, because Drummond rebounds at an elite level and J-Smoove is ridiculously aggressive on offense. The Pistons backcourt is a mess as long as Brandon Jennings is ineffective, and he’s been awful since John Loyer took over as interim head coach. Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum are both legitimate GPP plays, while Kyle Singler is a safer play at SG/SF that will usually produce around 15-30 FPs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 Outside The Box:

 

·     Aaron Brooks had 13 PTs, 7 AST and 25.5 DK points last night, while Ty Lawson had 9 PTs, 8 AST and 33 DK points. Considering their price differential, it's pretty clear which player you should target in a potential blowout. 

·      No player is more frequently mis-priced than Tyreke Evans. He was at $6200 for two straight games, and justified that price tag. Now all of a sudden he's at $7500 in a tough matchup with the Nets defense, and is doubtful to reach his value threshold of 45 DK points.

·      Ersan Ilyasova will likely sit tonight and John Henson may draw the start, but I wouldn't recommend playing him as Blake Griffin will tear through the skinny Tar Heel in an almost certain blowout. Jeff Adrien is much cheaper and would likely log more minutes in a blowout. Chris Wright, O.J. Mayo, Giannis, and Jeff Adrien may be the safest plays if you're predicting a blowout, but no one is safe under Larry Drew. 

 

 

 

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

 

Point Guard

 

Damian Lillard (POR) vs. MIA: $8100

 

Sometimes you just have to say screw the numbers and take a chance in GPPs. Miami gives up the 2nd fewest FPPG to opposing PGs this season and 5th fewest over the last two weeks, but Lillard is not your average PG. Keep in mind that this is a 2nd-year player who torched the Pacers league-leading defense for 38 PTs, 11 AST and 60.25 DK points a month and a half ago, and has shown unbelievable poise in every situation. When the Blazers travel to Miami for a matchup with the defending champs tonight, they will need to lean on their young floor general if they're going to have any chance to stave off a blowout against a motivated Heat team. Lillard has yet to have that "wow" game with LaMarcus Aldridge inactive that we all expected, but he's scored 20+ PTs and attempted 19.8 FGs in six straight appearances with LMA out, so the volume should be there if he can connect on enough shots to exceed value tonight. 

 

Dwyane Wade (MIA) vs. POR: $6700

 

It's certainly annoying to play D-Wade, as you will likely hear about how he's a GTD, may suit up, and then there's still a chance he's not "feeling it"  tonight and just sits out with his sore knee, but $6700 is just an incredibly low price for a player of his caliber. Granted, he's hovered around 30 FPs while playing 32.5 MPG in his last two appearances, but those contests were against the Celtics and Grizzlies, two of the slowest-paced teams in the league, and if Wade suits up against the dynamic Blazers, he should find more opportunities to score. We may be looking at something closer to the 24 PTs, 7 AST and 46.5 DK points he put up against the Rockets last weekend, which happened to be MORE FPs than LeBron produced in that game. If you want to build a more balanced LU, Wade may be the better play tonight for $3400 less than the reigning MVP. 

 

NOTE: Wade is now listed as doubtful with a sprained ankle. I'd rather spend less on one of the value plays at guard or pay up for Lillard, Harden, or Westbrook if he's active.

 

 

Values: Darren Collison surprisingly played just 26 minutes as Jamal Crawford was able to play 33 minutes in his return, however, if this game gets out of hand, Collison would see extra time and that creates enough upside to consider him at $4000.

 

Speaking of blowouts, the Spurs host the 76ers tonight and if they dispatch the league’s worst team early, Patty Mills could get extended run. He produced 20.75 FPs in 20 minutes in a close game with the Warriors on Saturday, and at $3300, has plenty of upside in the event Tony Parker gets some extra rest.

 

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

James Harden (HOU) vs. CHA: $9400

 

Harden often disappoints owners that spend 10% of the salary cap for his services, but one thing remains consistent- when the Rockets play close games, The Beard puts up fantastic FP totals. The Bobcats are playing fantastic ball lately, and just annihilated the Blazers in a Saturday night home game, so Houston better be ready to play in Charlotte tonight. While Al Jefferson is torching whomever the Rockets try to slow him down with, Harden will look to respond on the other end and while he may commit his fair share of TOs, that doesn’t effect his stock too much on DraftKings. If Dwight Howard (ankle) is unable to play tonight, that means even more usage for Harden as he carries the Rockets offense, and no matter how solid the Bobcats defense has been, it’s very difficult to completely shut down a scorer like Harden.

 

Kawhi Leonard (SAS) vs. PHI: $6400

 

Utility players like Leonard can be very productive in close games with the 76ers, as they play at the fastest pace in the league and that leads to a ton of rebounds and steals for wing players. Jimmy Butler just produced 37.5 DK points against the Sixers on Saturday night, and Kawhi is a similar type of player that has actually been more consistent than Butler. Leonard has produced 30+ FPs in 11 of 13 games since returning from a hand injury, but the one danger tonight would be the fact that Popovich may look to rest his starters against such an inferior opponent, and Leonard could sit for extended periods of the second half if the game gets out of hand. If Philly continues to fight to avoid their historic losing streak though, Leonard and the rest of the Spurs should be able to hit value.

 

 

Values:  Dion Waiters has been steady as anything in the absence of Kyrie Irving, yet due to the slightly inferior matchup, he’s $400 cheaper than he was last night. It’s hard to imagine fading him in MSG against the Knicks shoddy perimeter D.

 

Shaun Livingston isn’t showing enough upside to warrant GPP consideration, but he has a solid floor and is playing starters minutes. At $4300, he’s affordable enough to make it into some 50/50 and H2H lineups.

 

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. DEN: $11,500

That price tag may be absurd, but so is the fact that Durant put up 83 DK points on Friday night even with the Raptors doing everything they could to make someone else beat them. He’s been unstoppable all season, but is really worth the money when Russell Westbrook is inactive. With Westy slated to sit either tonight or tomorrow night, Durant could have a huge game as the Thunder host the high-scoring Nuggets tonight. As you would expect, KD went nuts against Denver with 38 PTs, 8 REB, 6 AST and 61 DK points earlier this season, and produced 43.25 DK points in just 28 minutes of play during a blowout in early January. The Nuggets are actually playing consistent ball lately, and the Thunder are growing increasingly dependent on Durant to do a little bit of everything, so a huge game could be coming.

 

LeBron James (MIA) vs. POR: $10,100

Clearly tonight is the night to spend big at the SF position, as both MVP candidates are in a favorable situation. LeBron came 2 REB and 1 AST away from a triple double in Saturday’s loss to New Orleans, and afterwards vented about everyone “making excuses.” If you read between the lines, LBJ is basically hinting that he is going to come out and let his play do the talking as he tries to carry Miami to a much needed win over the dangerous Blazers. It’s been a while since James lit up American Airlines Arena for 61 PTs, and he has to be sensing the MVP race slipping away from him as his price continues to drop on DFS sites. Yet at a certain point, you have to take a chance on the King, and for a relative discount of 10K, tonight might be that night.

 

 

Values:  Giannis Antetokuonmpo didn't make the most of a plus matchup with the Kings last night, but he produced 19 DK points and got back onto the floor for some garbage time. At $3700, it's nice to have a player that will probably start and could also play in the 4th quarter of a blowout.

 

James Anderson was very quiet in Saturday’s loss to the Bulls, but the Spurs aren’t as solid defensively and he’s worth a look at $3500 as long as he’s starting and playing 30+ minutes.

 

 

Power Forward

 

Anthony Davis (NOP) vs. BKN: $10,400

Another night, and another fantastic matchup for Anthony Davis, as he takes on of the worst rebounding teams in the history of the NBA in the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets set a record for futility when they grabbed just 17 boards as a team in a loss to the Thunder two months ago, and the Brow is capable of posting huge rebounding totals on any given night. Brooklyn is also giving up the 6th most PPG (21.15) to opposing centers over the last two weeks and there is little chance Mason Plumlee and Andray Blatche can contain Davis. It’s as simple as, pay for the Brow, expect 50-55 DK points, and hope he goes for 70-80 again.

 

Kenneth Faried (DEN) vs. OKC: $7400

Faried's playing time fell off a cliff against Dallas as he played just 21 minutes on Friday night, but he quickly bounced back with 37 DK points in 31 minutes during last night's win over Washington. Now he gets a slightly better matchup with the Thunder, and the absence of J.J. Hickson creates more of a guaranteed role for the Manimal. He seems to turn it up in big games, as evidenced by the 46.5 DK points he produced against the Clippers a week ago, and if the Nuggets are going to have any chance in OKC tonight, they will need Faried to go HAM as usual. A double double is a reasonable expectation, and he may not be the most appealing GPP play, but he's been consistent for a couple of months now and his situation is much less murky than that of the Nuggets back court. 

 

 

 

Values:  Since Ersan Ilyasova played last night, he’s expected to sit tonight and the biggest beneficiaries should be John Henson ($5400) and Jeff Adrien ($3800). Personally, I would rather use Adrien for his consistency and because he’s significantly cheaper, but both are solid options, while Khris Middleton ($4400) also receives a boost.

 

Boris Diaw didn’t shine in the absence of Tim Duncan on Saturday night, but still produced 20+ DK points and could find plenty of room to operate against the Sixers tonight. He’s a worthwhile GPP play at $3900.

 

 

 

Center

 

 

Al Jefferson (CHA) vs. HOU: $9000

Big Al dominated Robin Lopez for 50.25 DK points in just 29 minutes of work on Saturday night. He would’ve been the top scorer of the evening if the Bobcats hadn’t run away with that game, but they should have a harder time putting away a Rockets squad that has one of the best records in the NBA in 2014. Dwight Howard (ankle) is highly questionable for tonight’s tilt, and while Omer Asik is no defensive slouch, he should have a very difficult time dealing with the post-move master, Jefferson. At this point, you should simply be searching for potentially close games in order to deploy Jefferson, who is producing at an elite level yet is stubbornly priced well below the other elite options on DK.

 

Andre Drummond (DET) vs. UTA: $6900

Drummond’s price continues to plummet and he continues to be an appealing option on a nightly basis. He was solid over the weekend in his first two games back from a neck injury, and should be prepared to break out at any point. When the Pistons travel to Utah for a matchup with a Jazz team that allows the 6th most PPG (20.04), 7th most FPPG (45.03), and 8th most BPG (2.47) to opposing centers, Drummond could definitely have that breakout game. Utah particularly struggles against lengthy centers like the Man Child , and there is little chance Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors can keep the former Husky off the boards tonight.

 

 

Values: Henry Sims made me a believer by producing 18 PTs, 15 REB, and 44.5 DK points against the stout Bulls front line on Saturday night. He gets a slightly better matchup with the Spurs tonight and his price has only risen to $4400.

 

Omer Asik remains a solid play if Dwight Howard is inactive. Even with his price at $4600, he should produce around 30 DK points and will be needed to play heavy minutes as no one else has any shot at containing Al Jefferson.

 

 

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  

Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$2 Bank Shot Qualifier:  $500 prize pool

$2 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

Or for a Shot at the Million $ Contest : $55 Bank Shot Qualifier

 

 


Edited by nweitzer7, 24 March 2014 - 10:56 AM.


#2 Scott Atkins

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Posted 24 March 2014 - 08:15 AM

Nate, 

Thanks to your advice yesterday, I cashed every single contest I entered yesterday!

 

Screen_Hunter_112_Mar_24_10_11.jpg

 

671158 NBA $5 Triple Up [Top 9 Win $15] 3/23/2014 $5.00 $135.00 1 $15.00 VIEW RESULTS

671160 NBA $5 50/50 [Top 50% Win] 3/23/2014 $5.00 $450.00 2 $9.00 VIEW RESULTS

671161 NBA 10x Booster [Top 10 Win $20] 3/23/2014 $2.00 $200.00 2 $20.00 VIEW RESULTS

671163 NBA $5 50/50 [Top 50% Win] 3/23/2014 $5.00 $450.00 4 $9.00 VIEW RESULTS

671170 NBA $1 Triple Up [Top 15 Win $3] 3/23/2014 $1.00 $45.00 1 $3.00 VIEW RESULTS

671189 NBA $1 Triple Up [Top 15 Win $3] 3/23/2014 $1.00 $45.00 2 $3.00 VIEW RESULTS

671196 NBA $5 50/50 [Top 50% Win] 3/23/2014 $5.00 $450.00 2 $9.00 VIEW RESULTS

671209 NBA $1 Triple Up [Top 15 Win $3] 3/23/2014 $1.00 $45.00 2 $3.00 VIEW RESULTS

671210 NBA $5 50/50 [Top 50% Win] 3/23/2014 $5.00 $450.00 3 $9.00 VIEW RESULTS

671212 NBA $1 Triple Up [Top 15 Win $3] 3/23/2014 $1.00 $45.00 3 $3.00 VIEW RESULTS

671214 NBA $5 50/50 [Top 50% Win] 3/23/2014 $5.00 $450.00 3 $9.00 VIEW RESULTS

671222 NBA $5 Multi-Match Head-to-Head [$94.50 Gtd] 3/23/2014 $5.00 $94.50 2 $8.55 VIEW RESULTS

671361 NBA $5K Layup [$5,000 Guaranteed] 3/23/2014 $2.00 $5,000.00 48 $8.42 VIEW RESULTS

 

With advice like yours, I definitely feel more comfortable entering some of those bigger GPPs. Let's find our zone heading into Wednesday's big Million $ tourney!


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