Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 3.26.14
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Tonight, Wednesday March 26, 2014
· Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons (-5.5): O/U - 206
Do the Cavs play every night? This is their fifth game in a week and every one has presented some intriguing value plays with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup. Dion Waiters has been consistently awesome, but I'm hesitant to pay $7100 for his services. Jarrett Jack remains reasonably priced at $5800 and gets a fantastic matchup with a Pistons team that gives up the 2nd most FPPG (48.46) to opposing PGs over the last two weeks. Luol Deng is finding his stride, and Spencer Hawes could be a good buy-low target at $6200 after his solid game last night.
Most importantly, the Pistons play absolutely no defense these days as they've plummeted to the bottom of the league in terms of PPG allowed and defensive rating. Detroit is giving up an absurd 107.3 PPG since the all-star break, which explains why they're 4-14 since then, yet they've managed to remain competitive in most instances and might smell a win against a Cavs team that should be tired after such a hectic schedule. Josh Smith is an absolute mess, but is worth playing in a GPP or two at $7400. Andre Drummond is the safest play on this team, as the Man Child is a double double machine and is still available at a relative discount of $7100. Brandon Jennings is also priced at $7100 and he's actually averaging 17 PPG, 7.5 APG and 31 MPG over his last two appearances. He's not to be trusted, but the Cavs are also very generous to opposing PGs and he would be a very sneaky GPP play the way he's under performed lately.
· Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Pelicans (NL)
There's no line yet for this contest, which is surprising considering there aren't too many notable injuries. Vegas seems to be awaiting the status of Eric Gordon, who may have been resting up for this revenge game, and would be an interesting GPP play at $5200 if he can suit up. If he's out with a sore knee, Tyreke Evans would probably be a best again, and nobody needs to tell you to expect Anthony Davis to beast the competition. New Orleans is a two-man-band when Gordon is out, so there isn't much value to be found on their end.
However, the Clippers have two of the best value plays of the night in Jamal Crawford and Darren Collison at $5100 and $4000. Chris Paul isn't a selfish player, and he is no issues sharing facilitation duties with these two guards. Collison should start and finish with modest FP totals, while Crawford is a wildcard off the bench that usually produces more and more depending on how close the game is down the stretch. The Clippers' big men are much more expensive, but one or both could have great games. Blake Griffin hasn't scored less than 20 points since Jan 18, and is extremely reliable, but the Pelicans are one of two teams to hold him below 30 DK points in 2014, so the matchup may not be ideal. DeAndre Jordan is really only a 50/50 play because he contributes rebounds and not much else, and CP3 isn't doing enough to justify his 10K price tag.
· New York Knicks @ Sacramento Kings
The Line hasn't been set for this game yet either, and the Kings may be underdogs if Isaiah Thomas (quad) is unable to play tonight. If you watched the Knicks play last night though, there's no way they should be favored over anyone right now as that was the perhaps worst defensive display witnessed in the NBA all year. Personally, I believe in bounce back games, and the Knicks locker room has to be a somber, but motivating place right now. Expect Tyson Chandler to rebound the ball furiously tonight, and Carmelo Anthony to get himself off to a much better start. J.R. Smith ($5600) and Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4500) both have a chance to exceed value against the Kings shoddy defense against opposing SGs, and Amare Stoudemire is under priced as usual at $4400.
If IT2 can't play, Ray McCallum would likely start at PG and be the value play of the night at $3000. Since we're looking at a GTD, it may be best to limit exposure to McCallum and have a backup plan in place if Thomas is able to go. His absence would also mean more shots for Rudy Gay, who like Melo, is pretty uninterested in defense, and even higher usage for DeMarcus Cousins. Boogie is an absolute monster as evidenced by the 60 DK points he produced in just 29 minutes during Sunday's easy win over the Bucks. Tyson Chandler did a good job of containing him when these teams met last month, but if this contest remains close down the stretch, Cousins has a good chance to break 50 DK points due to sheer volume.
Outside The Box:
· The Wizards-Suns game is the least appealing contest on tonight’s slate in my eyes. Phoenix is spreading out their production across a 10-man rotation and neither of these teams allow many FPPG to any positions. John Wall is struggling, Marcin Gortat has an injured back and Trevor Ariza has Achilles tendinitis. There simply aren’t many options to target.
· I’m not sure how, but the Nets have held Al Jefferson to 30 PTs, 22 REB, and 4 AST while forcing him into 7 TOs in two meetings over the last month and a half. His price is uncomfortably high and Brooklyn may have a legitimate game plan when it comes to containing the post move master.
· Keep an eye on the Grizzlies injury report as Tony Allen (illness) and Mike Conley (ankle) are both somewhat questionable for tonight’s tilt at Utah. If either of them are inactive, Nick Calathes, Courtney Lee and Mike Miller or James Johnson would see increased roles for near the minimum price.
Dwyane Wade (MIA) vs. IND: $6700
There's no way I'm paying 10K for CP3 the way his stats have declined lately, John Wall has been inconsistent and gets a tough matchup with Phoenix tonight and Kyle Lowry is dealing with a lot of aches and pains that have limited his playing time. Even the consistent Isaiah Thomas is questionable to play tonight, but the Heat have already announced that Wade will return to action in a matchup between the two top dogs in the Eastern Conference. D-Wade is averaging 24.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.5 APG, and 3 SPG in two meetings with the Pacers this season and seems to enjoy facing Indiana. He should be well rested after sitting out the Heat’s last two contests, and is available for a very reasonable price tonight.
Ty Lawson (DEN) vs. SAS: $7600
I still have serious concerns about Lawson's Usage Rate now that the Nuggets are using three-guard lineups and allowing Aaron Brooks to facilitate the offense while he's on the floor, but at least Ty aggressively attacked the rim and got to the FT line 16 times on his way to 25 PTs and 42.25 DK points during Monday's blowout loss in OKC. That indicates that his injured groin may no longer be an issue, and if he's 100% healthy, nobody can stay in front of the speedy former Tar Heel. Lawson produced 42 FPs in just 33 minutes of work on Monday, so if the Nuggets can remain competitive in San Antonio tonight, he has a good chance to exceed that total.
Values: Darren Collison still plays a big role in the Clippers offense with Jamal Crawford back in the fold, and has huge upside in the event of a blowout. He produced 30 DK points in 34 minutes in a surprisingly narrow win over the Bucks on Monday and could exceed value again at just $4000 tonight.
Isaiah Thomas is questionable tonight with a sore quad and Ray McCallum would be a great play for the minimum price if Thomas can’t play. This game tips off at 10 p.m. EST so you should plan accordingly if you're going to late swap.
Kyle Korver is already ruled out tonight and while Shelvin Mack has been underwhelming at $3100, he finally gets a plus matchup with the Wolves tonight and is worth a look.
Tyreke Evans (NOP) vs. LAC: $7600
There he is again, the man who continues to exceed value when you least expect it and take nights off when you hope for a huge performance. You can't read too much into Evans' stoic demeanor, but the 5th-year-pro is playing carrying his team with some impressive performances lately. His $7500 price tag gave me pause, but he ended up producing the highest FP total of the night with 60.5 DK points on Monday, and can't be ignored after his price rose just $100. Tyreke began his current tear with a surprising 41.75-DK point performance against the Clippers on March 1, and is now averaging 22.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, and 5.8 APG in 11 games as a starter. When the Pelicans host the Clippers tonight, they will need Evans to continue to do a little bit of everything.
Jamal Crawford (LAC) vs. NOP: $5100
Crawford will be on the other side of the ball in New Orleans tonight, and he should continue to light it up off the bench in his third game back in the lineup. He hasn't blown up by any means, but is averaging a respectable 23 DK PPG in 30 MPG in his last two appearances and was scoring the ball at an alarming rate before his calf injury as he averaged 23.6 PPG in 11 February contests. J-Crossover is averaging a healthy 20.5 PPG and 4.5 APG in two meetings with the Pelicans this season, so he could definitely have some success in what should be a competitive game.
Values: Manu Ginobili is pretty much coasting until the playoffs arrive, but if the Nuggets challenge the Spurs at home tonight, he could turn it up offensively and is worth a look at just $4800.
If Eric Gordon (knee) is out again tonight Austin Rivers is worth a look at $3200. He hasn't been great in Gordon's absence, but he's played 20+ minutes and scored 9+ points in five straight, so he's a viable punt play for near the minimum.
Carmelo Anthony (NYK) vs. SAC: $10,000
Melo's slow start may have had something to do with the Knicks completely deflation in Staples Center last night, but he ended up cooking in the second half and finished the night with a respectable 47.75 DK points. It's hard to trust New York after they were dominated by the Lakers of all teams, but professionals have pride and they should bounce back in Sacramento tonight. Anthony averages 29.1 PPG 9.4 RPG and 3.3 APG on 0 days rest this season, and went for 36 PTs, 11 REB, 5 AST and 56.75 DK points against the Kings last month. A similar performance would result in him meeting value, but if Melo and the Knicks are motivated by last night's bitter defeat, Anthony and company could definitely turn it up a notch.
Kawhi Leonard (SAS) vs. DEN: $6400
Writing about Kawhi is pretty much as boring as watching him play someone one-on-one would be. He's the least flashy player imaginable, but all he does is produce stats across the board, and he continued that trend with 26.25 DK points in 26 minutes during Monday's easy win over the Sixers. Clearly Leonard's production is inflated when the Spurs play fast-paced opponents, and he should have another solid night when they host a Nuggets team that ranks third in the NBA in terms of pace. He's pretty much a lock for 30 FPs when he plays his usual slate of minutes, and is an ideal play for 50/50 or H2H formats.
Values: DeMarre Carroll is pretty much a rock for the Atlanta Hawks and a relatively safe play at $5100.
Alonzo Gee only logged 13 minutes last night as he picked up 4 quick fouls, but he could be a decent punt play at $3400.
Kevin Love (MIN) vs. ATL: $11,000
There's a lot of expensive options at PF and all of them are equally appealing- oh my lord Kevin Love dropped 43 PTs, 19 REB and 72.25 DK points on the Hawks on Feb 1???- never mind. You can't necessarily expect Love to equal that type of insane production tonight, but after his lackluster performance against Memphis he's available for a relative discount and is pretty much a lock for 50+ DK points. If there were splits for "how a player performs after conducting a post-game interview with a 1,000-yard stare" I'm guessing they would be pretty favorable for superstars like Love, and I fully expect him to ball out in front of a home crowd tonight. Atlanta's defense has fallen all the way to the bottom 10 in terms of PPG allowed, and they surrender the 9th most FPPG (44.12) to opposing PFs over the last two weeks. It seems like a big night is in the cards for Mr. Love.
Luol Deng (CLE) vs. DET: $5900
Deng is playing well after being sidelined for 3 games with a sprained ankle and put together a very nice line with 19 PTs, 7 AST, 6 REB, and 41.5 DK points in a close win over the Raptors last night. He played 40 minutes, and like nearly every Cavalier, is seeing more usage with Kyrie Irving inactive. He’ll matchup with Josh Smith tonight, who is a terrible individual defender and most of the reason that the Pistons cough up the 3rd most PPG (21.33) and FPPG to opposing SFs this season. Deng is surprisingly affordable given how quiet he's been on his new team, but keep in mind this is a utility player that blew up when Derrick Rose went down for the year to the point that his price tag was near 8K and now he has a similar situation with Kyrie out of the picture in Cleveland.
Values: Amare Stoudemire is playing ferociously, and if you managed to watch that tremendously embarrassing performance by the Knicks last night, you would've seen him throwing down over people like he used to do back in the day. He's still just $4400 and should be well rested after sitting most of the second half in a blowout loss.
If Wilson Chandler is still out Darrell Arthur has a good chance to hit value at $3500. He struggled to produce while dealing with foul trouble on Monday night but would see 20-25 minutes at SF/PF.
Anthony Davis (NOP) vs. LAC: $10,200
If you can afford another expensive big man, it's hard to go wrong with the Brow lately as his "off night" on Monday consisted of 24 PTs, 14 REB, 3 BLK and 49.5 DK points. That's pretty much his floor and he could definitely exceed it in a very competitive matchup with the Clippers duo of big men. While DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin split rebounding duties, it pretty much falls on Davis to control the glass for the Pelicans and he has done that with 13.5 RPG over his last nine appearances. His 24-point total was his lowest scoring output since March 3, and should not necessarily be viewed as an indication that he's slowing down. Pairing Anthony Davis and Tyreke Evans rarely goes wrong for DFS players, and those two studs should be productive once again as the Pelicans host the Clippers tonight.
Roy Hibbert (IND) vs. MIA: $5800
For one of the biggest humans on the planet, Hibbert is very easy to miss on the basketball court. He’s been invisible for most of the month of March as he’s averaging just 8.9 PPG and 4.6 RPG in 14 contests, however, he has had success against the Heat in the past and should be able to turn it up considering the electric atmosphere we’re expecting in Indiana tonight. When the Pacers hosted the defending champs earlier this season, Hibbert produced 24 PTs and 31.75 DK points while pulling down a disappointing 5 REB. If the ball bounces his way more frequently tonight and he can stay out of foul trouble, there’s a chance The Big Stick double doubles and pays off his discounted price tag. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but Gorgui Dieng is a far safer play for $400 less, and by no means should you consider Hibbert in anything but GPPs. It’s a fantastic matchup against a Heat team that is surrendering the 3rd most FPPG (49.87) to opposing centers over the last two weeks, but playing Hibbert always comes with plenty of risk.
Values: Tiago Spliiter should return to the lineup as the Spurs host the Nuggets tonight, but he’s far too expensive at $5500. Boris Diaw may be a viable value play at $3900 against Denver’s porous defense.
Chris Anderson will log some extra minutes as the best defense against Roy Hibbert. Greg Oden may start, but the Birdman will almost certainly out produce him and costs just $3500.
Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7
Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!
Or try to win big through one of these contests: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)
$2 Layup $6,000 prize pool
Edited by Scott Atkins, 26 March 2014 - 10:52 AM.