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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 4.1.14 (Short Slate Version)


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 01 April 2014 - 07:46 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 4.1.14

 

 

If you haven't tried playing Daily NBA you're missing out. While production in Fantasy Football is extremely unpredictable, basketball is close to a science when it comes to Daily Fantasy Sports, and there's no better place to play it then DraftKings.

 

No other DFS site can equal the size of Kings' pools and payouts, and you can get started by playing $2, $1 or even $0.25 games HERE. Who knows, you may turn that $2 entry fee into a $500 payout if you do enough research, that's how I made my bankroll and now I'm free rolling with over a $1,000 of winnings.

 

They will match your initial deposit ($100 deposit = $100 bonus) over time and get you started with a free ticket to the $2 guaranteed prize pool. Now's a great time to get started with Daily MLB also getting into swing.

 

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through their GPP contest: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$6 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

 

 

 

Tonight, Tuesday April 1, 2014

 

 

 

 

 

Game to Target:

 

 

·       Portland Trailblazers @ Los Angeles Lakers

This game would've had a gigantic Over/Under earlier in the season, but both teams have fixed up their defense to an extent and the Lakers were surprisingly competitive against the Suns in their most recent home game. Still, a matchup between of the fastest-paced, highest-scoring, and worst defensive teams in terms of PPG allowed is too good to pass up, and there should be a ton of possessions in this tilt, allowing many players to hit value. Wes Matthews and Nic Batum could each have good games, at come at a relative discount thanks to their recently underwhelming play. LaMarcus Aldridge started to wake up offensively against the Grizzlies, but after getting dinged in the back seemed to lose some aggressiveness on the glass and finished with just 4 rebounds. The more Damian Lillard struggles, the more appealing of an option Mo Williams will be as the veteran is playing very well as the Blazers 6th man.

 

The Lakers also have some exploitable options, as Pau Gasol is probable to return from his illness and is relatively cheap at $7600. It will be anyone's guess as to whether Chris Kaman, Jordan Hill, or Ryan Kelly receive a DNP or play less than 10 minutes, but I'd guess that Kaman still backs up Gasol and plays around 20 minutes. Keep an eye on the SLU, and on the status of Xavier Henry and Steve Nash, because their continued absence would make Nick Young and Kent Bazemore safer plays. 

 

 

 

 

 Outside The Box:

 

·      Terrence Jones apparently missed practice with an illness and hasn't been playing well regardless. Dwight Howard (ankle) is already ruled out for this week, so Omer Asik and Donatas Motiejunas will be fantastic value plays against Brooklyn.

·      Monta Ellis plays his former team again, but they've certainly gotten the better of him as he's averaging 13.3 PPG on 32.7% FG shooting in three meetings with the Warriors.

·      The Mavericks and Nets both do a great job of providing a balanced scoring attack and it 's very difficult to predict who will have a breakout game on a given night. Target other teams if you want guaranteed production from the top players. 

 

 

 

 

Player Recommendations:

 

 

Point Guard

 

Damian Lillard (POR) vs. LAL: $7600

 

Despite his aforementioned struggles, Lillard is an incredibly talented young PG that can, and will, break out with a huge performance at some point. I'm not sold on him exceeding value by a wide margin, as his rare 50+ DK point games usually come when the Blazers are trailing in the fourth quarter, but he should be solid against a Lakers squad that gives up the 2nd most FPPG (43.68) to opposing PGs this season. Don't trust him in DU or H2H formats, but don't ignore him in this matchup entirely.

 

 

Value: Jeremy Lin is a similar play to Lillard for 2K less. He'll get another chance to produce as a starter and gets a slightly easier matchup with Deron Williams, the only issue is that he has to guard Williams on the other end and could end up getting benched for rookie Isaiah Canaan for stretches. 

 

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Steph Curry (GSW) vs. DAL: $8100

 

There’s so much value on the board tonight that you could potentially play Curry and James Harden- the two most expensive options available- in the same lineup. That might be the way to go as both guards will have added scoring responsibilities and even rebound the ball a bit more with injuries to their respective front courts. Curry lit up the Knicks for 32 PTs in a loss on Sunday, but the Warriors only managed to put up 84 on the scoreboard and that is part of the reason he only added 4 ASTs in 41 minutes. The fact that he played 41 minutes and attempted 20+ FGs for the second straight game indicates Golden State is going to lean on their all-star while David Lee is out, and the Mavericks' defense is more generous than that of the Knicks. The O/U hasn't been set yet, but I expect a high-scoring game in Dallas tonight and for Curry to step up as his team needs a win to maintain their playoff seed. 

 

 

Values: Mo Williams is pretty safe at $4700, but still mostly a GPP play as long as he's coming off the bench.

 

Shaun Livingston is a much safer play at  $4600 since he will start and fend with James Harden, but that creates the risk of foul trouble. The best values (Jodie Meeks, Wes Matthews, etc.) are about $1,000 more.

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Nic Batum (POR) vs. LAL: $6900

 

Batum started to sleep walk even before LaMarcus Aldridge returned from injury, but now that LMA is back his production has really decreased and he's now an affordable mid-range play. That's good timing as the pace of this game should definitely benefit a Jack of all Trades like Batum, and explains why he averages 13 PPG and 12 RPG in two meetings with the Lakers this season. He continues to score at a moderate clip, but fills up the stat sheet with peripherals and could start to light it up from downtown if he's given the opportunity. Don't overlook Batum as a GPP option and he's not a bad 50/50 or H2H play given the matchup.

 

 

ValueMarreese Speights may start for the injured David Lee, but Draymond Green is the superior player and more productive FP per minute producer that you want to pay $400 more for. 

 

 

 

 

Power Forward

 

Pau Gasol (LAL) vs. POR: $7600

Gasol didn't take any chances with his vertigo affliction, but he's been off his feet for about a week and wouldn't return tonight if he didn't have full confidence that he could play around 30 minutes. That makes him a solid 50/50 or H2H play, but not the most appealing GPP option. With LaMarcus Aldridge not at full strength either, both players should find an easy route to the basket and Gasol may get a break on defense if he gets matched up with Robin Lopez while Jordan Hill or Chris Kaman tries to guard LMA. When healthy, the Lakers offense runs through the big Spaniard and he produces over 1.5 FPs per minute. 

 

 

Value:  Dwight Howard's out, and Omer Asik is just $4000 = duh. 

 

 

 

Center

 

LaMarcus Aldridge (POR) vs. LAL: $9400

It's baseball season after all, and you're not going to win a Daily NBA GPP without swinging for the fences. Aldridge hasn't played over 33 minutes since returning from a back injury three games ago, but the Blazers have won all three games with relative ease and have no cause to push their MVP. I'm not ready to crown the Lakers as incredible defenders of their home court, but what they did to Phoenix on Sunday was VERY impressive, and this team is finding a way to keep games close in Staples Center towards the end of the season. There are enough young guns available to D'Antoni that they will not simply tank their season, and the commissioner will probably just rig the draft lottery for the Lakers anyways. In all seriousness, the Lakers, like most teams, have no chance of stopping LMA's jumper and their pace should allow him to snag double digit rebounds. He's not completely healthy yet, but if he puts it all together in a plus matchup he will be a steal at $9400. 

 

 

Value: Jermaine O'neal will continue to start for Andrew Bogut and is priced at $3700. He has a decent chance to double double against the Mavs.

 

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

 
Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through their GPP contest: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$6 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

 

 


Edited by nweitzer7, 01 April 2014 - 08:23 AM.





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