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Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 4.2.14


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#1 nweitzer7

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Posted 02 April 2014 - 07:54 AM

Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 4.2.14

 

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They will match your initial deposit ($100 deposit = $100 bonus) over time and get you started with a free ticket to the $2 guaranteed prize pool. Now's a great time to get started with Daily MLB also getting into swing.

 

 

Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through their GPP contest: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$6 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

 

 

 

Tonight, Wednesday April 2, 2014

 

 

Games to Target:

 

 

·      Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings

Two teams that aren't going anywhere this season will battle in Northern California to close out a 13-game slate, and there should be plenty of fantasy production on both sides of the ball. Both these teams are in the bottom 10 in terms of PPG allowed and defensive efficiency, and the Lakers are 2nd in the league in pace, which usually increases the number of possessions for both squads in their contests. Mike D'Antoni is using a deep and unpredictable rotation right now, but the one constant should be around 30 minutes for Pau Gasol, who is available at a stunningly low price of $5900. Chris Kaman is worth a look if he's starting, while Kent Bazemore seems to have the coaching staff's confidence and is a decent value at $4600. Jodie Meeks is a bit expensive at $5500, but has been consistent enough to warrant consideration. Kendall Marshall finally broke 20 DK points and is a little safer with Steve Nash doubtful to play tonight. Of course, Nick Young caught fire in last night's loss and is just $5400 in another plus matchup. He's a decent GPP play that will need to score in bunches to exceed value.

 

The Kings offense is much easier to predict. DeMarcus Cousins will get a ton of touches, Rudy Gay will launch shots when given the opportunity and their speedy PG (either Isaiah Thomas or Ray McCallum) will run the show and probably end up with 10+ AST. The rest of their players are fringe options and not really worth consideration.

 

 

·      New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets (-3.5): O/U = 211 

This is another late game that should be very fast-paced as the Nuggets are 3rd in the league in terms of possessions per contest. There's little reason for Denver to rush Wilson Chandler back into action in a lost season, as they stated publicly, so Randy Foye, Ty Lawson, and Aaron Brooks should continue to run 3-guard sets down the stretch. Lawson is much more expensive and his value is hurt by this current arrangement, but the other two are great GPP plays that could blow up at home against the shoddy Pelicans D. Kenneth Faried will battle with Anthony Davis, but is too expensive at $7600, while Timofey Mozgov produced very nicely in a slow-paced matchup with Memphis and could replicate that performance. 

 

The Pelicans have been a two-man-band for most of the last few weeks, but the return of Brian Roberts seems to have hurt Tyreke Evans' value. At $8300, it's a little risky to bank on Evans approaching a triple double again, but he is averaging 19.5 PTs, 4.5 REB, and 6.5 AST in two meetings with Denver this season. Anthony Davis is the player to target as he's still priced below 10K and should absolutely dominate this matchup once again. If you want a super value at PG, Brian Roberts is a good bet to produce around 20 DK points and is just $3600.

 

 

 

 

 Outside The Box:

 

·      Dual PG lineups usually lead to comparable production, as he saw with Darren Collison and Chris Paul on Monday night. I doubt Collison out scores CP3 again, but for nearly 5K cheaper, he's probably the better play with Jamal Crawford doubtful

·      As appealing as 76ers games are, the Bobcats are on of the better defensive teams in the NBA and will need to win in Philly tonight. With an O/U of just 203.5, DFS players may be disappointed with output on both sides of the ball in this contest. 

·      The Heat and Bucks played pretty much the ugliest game of the season in Milwaukee on Saturday night. The Bucks seem very unlikely to be able to compete in Miami so you should plan accordingly for a blowout and be careful targeting LeBron or other high-priced options.

 

 

 

Point Guard

 

Rajon Rondo (BOS) vs. WAS: $7500

There aren't many appealing PGs in the upper-tier price range tonight, but Rondo is a good bet to hit value as long as he's active. The Celtics are not on a B2B set, so he should log 35-40 minutes and considering he assists on nearly 50% of made baskets while he's on the floor, so he's a safe bet to post double digit dimes and always rebounds well for his position. Washington gives up a below average 8.39 APG to opposing PGs and John Wall is not the best on-ball defender, which may allow Rondo to get into the paint and make plays for the Celtics. Boston found a way to compete with the Bulls in a home and home set over the weekend and are not tanking despite any accusations, so you can expect a competitive game in the nation's capital with Rondo running the show for the C's. 

 

 

Isaiah Thomas/Ray McCallum (SAC) vs. LAL: $7000/$5000

At this point in the season you know it's a good idea to target PGs that are taking on the Lakers. Mike D'Antoni's squad is playing at the 2nd fastest pace in the league and their troop of chuckers (led by Swaggy P himself) do not hesitate to launch from downtown as their games turn into track meets. That would bode well for whomever starts at PG in the Kings back court, and obviously you'd prefer to play the usual starter, Thomas. IT2 was reportedly "close" to suiting up for Sacramento on Monday night but they held him out against the Pelicans, and McCallum played the best game of his young career in a win. Since late swap is available on DraftKings, you could set up a LU with one of these players, and have a plan to pivot off IT2 and use the 2K saved to upgrade Chris Kaman to Rudy Gay for example. Maybe well get official word on the Pizza Guy's status before the first games tip-off, but in the case that he's a GTD in the final game of the night, be prepared for either scenario.

 

 

Values: Darren Collison will be money if Jamal Crawford is out, and Crawford is considered doubtful tonight. At $5100 he's a great mid-tier value.

 

If Kyle Lowry were to sit out, Greivis Vasquez would be a great option at $4600.

 

Aaron Brooks is closing games for the Nuggets and has exceeded value in 3 of his last 5 appearances. He's just $4000 and is worth some play if Wilson Chandler is still out.

 

 

 

 

Shooting Guard

 

Steph Curry (GSW) vs. SAS: $9800

Curry was outstanding down the stretch last night as he carried the Warriors offense. Sure, the Spurs are an incredibly disciplined and well-coached team that will try and limit the opposition's best player, but Steph is a transcendent talent that finds a way to produce no matter what the defense throws at him. San Antonio hasn't been able to contain him this season as he's produced 25 PPG and 10.5 APG in two meetings with the Spurs, and he should see even more volume tonight with David Lee (hamstring) doubtful to suit up. The Warriors edged the Mavs in Dallas last night and Curry produced a respectable 48.25 DK points. He hasn't missed a beat on the second half of B2B sets this season as he scores 26.9 PPG on 50% shooting from the field in 10 such appearances. Now that he's $600 cheaper, Steph can meet value with a similar performance and he is always capable of taking over the game and exceeding value. 

 

DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. HOU: $7700

 

With Kyle Lowry's status in doubt, DeRozan could be a fantastic play as the Raptors host the high-scoring Rockets tonight. Lowry has played every game this season, so there's little reference for how the offense will run without him, but you would expect DeRozan to take on more play-making responsibilities and launch a few extra shots with a pass-first PG like Greivis Vasquez running the show. That bodes well for his value against a Houston squad that gives up the 4th most PPG (22.78) to opposing SGs this season and just lost their best perimeter defender in Patrick Beverley. He's a solid play either way, but could be even more appealing if Lowry is inactive. 

 

 

Values: Randy Foye is playing SF down the stretch as the Nuggets go with Ty Lawson and Aaron Brooks in the back court, and he pulled down 9 REB to finish with 32.75 DK points against Memphis on Monday. At $4900, he has a good chance to approach that total against the Pelicans.

 

Giannis Antetokounmpo struggled when the Bucks hosted the Heat last week, but he should get plenty of run tonight with O.J. Mayo generally uninterested and Milwaukee likely trailing big in the second half. He's a gamble at $3400.

 

 

 

Small Forward

 

Carmelo Anthony (NYK) vs. BKN: $10,100

Melo haters call him soft, a bad teammate, a ball hog, and declare that he is incapable of leading a team anywhere but down the toilet. Yet you have to give the guy credit for playing through a mild ankle sprain and hand injury to produce 34 PTs and 57 DK points as he led the Knicks to a tough road win in Utah on Monday. J.R. Smith and Anthony should be essentially the only scoring options for the Knicks tonight as Tim Hardaway, who has been playing very well off the bench, is questionable with an ankle injury. Amare should return, but we all know Melo's going to get his touches and he usually shoots without conscience. Brooklyn tends to play low-scoring games, but Anthony has shown the ability to produce with per game averages of 22.5 PTs,11 REB, and 4 AST in two meetings with the Nets, and should be ready to play well in the Battle of the Burroughs tonight. The Knicks season is on the line and MSG should be electric, so don't be surprised if Melo puts on a show.

 

Rudy Gay (SAC) vs. LAL: $7300

 

Rudy is dealing with a mild foot injury, so you'll want to keep an eye on his status leading up to tip-off, but if he's active he is a great play in this plus matchup. The Lakers cough up the 2nd most FPPG (41.03), while allowing the most RPG (9.22), APG (4.67), and SPG (2.2) to opposing SFs this season, and Gay produced 32 PTs and 55.75 DK points the last time he faced this defense. Granted that was while DeMarcus Cousins was out of the lineup, but if Isaiah Thomas is still inactive tonight, Rudy would have plenty of opportunities to score in a fast-paced game. Unfortunately this is the last game of the night, so I wouldn't risk playing Gay in 50/50 or H2H games, but he may be worth a gamble in GPPs because he could be huge if he suits up and Thomas sits. 

 

 

Values: DeMarre Carroll scared us with single digit FPs in the first half against the Sixers, but turned it on late to finish with 25.25 DK points. That's around his floor, and the sloppy style that Chicago brings to the table shouldn't effect his production too much, so he's worth a look at $4600.

 

Draymond Green got the start last night and produced 32.25 DK points. That's well above the value of his $4200 price tag and he should see plenty of minutes with David Lee doubtful again tonight. 

 

 

 

 

Power Forward

 

Anthony Davis (NOP) vs. DEN: $9900

The Brow had an relatively quiet night in his return on Monday as he failed to double double and produced 49.5 DK points in a loss. However considering 50 FPs is pretty much his floor and his price tag is still below 10K, he's a fantastic option against a Nuggets team that allows the 3rd most FPPG (45.9) to opposing PFs and 3rd most FPPG (46.1) to opposing centers this season. Denver plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the league and their style of play leads to tons of rebounding opportunities. That partially explains why Davis has impressive per game averages of 24.5 PTs, 12 REB, and 5 BLK in two meetings with the Nuggets, and he shouldn't have much trouble approaching those totals tonight. There aren't many options as safe as the Brow with as much upside, and you should definitely take advantage of the relative discount tonight.

 

 

Pau Gasol (LAL) vs. SAC: $5900

Is this a mistake? I know that sometimes DraftKings offers a discount on players that may not be at full strength, but it took them a few weeks to drop Derrick Rose out of the upper-tier range and Gasol was solid in 28 minutes last night. Pau has been very productive in three meetings with the Kings this season, but splits and matchup stats aren't really important when your talking about a player of Gasol's caliber being priced alongside scrubs like Tristan Thompson, and players that are out for the year like J.J. Hickson. I can't imagine why you wouldn't play him while he's available for such a steep discount.

 

 

Values:  Amare Stoudemire should return to action tonight and his price tag dropped a bit to $4400. The Nets are a good matchup for him as they usually play undersized bigs and he can bully them on the block.  

 

Chris Kaman is also available at a discount and is worth a look at $5400 if he's still in the SLU tonight. Jordan Hill received a DNP-CD last night so Kaman, Gasol, Ryan Kelly, and Robert Sacre appear to be the Lakers only front court rotational players.

 

 

 

Center

 

DeMarcus Cousins (SAC) vs. LAL: $10,400

I was definitely disappointed to see Boogie's price increase, but he's only $500 more than he was before he dismantled the Pelicans on Monday and now he gets a fantastic matchup with the defenseless Lakers, who are on the second half of a B2B set. The DFS community was primed to endorse Cousins when the Kings faced the Lakers on Feb 28, but he missed that game due to suspension and the opportunity passed him by. He has yet to dominate the Lakers in two meetings this season, but is fully capable of taking over this game the way he's played lately and obviously has a chance to produce against a team that is giving up the 2nd most FPPG (49.21) to opposing centers this season. Don't trust him to avoid foul trouble or TOs, but as long as he's out there, he's a problem for the other team and for anyone that faded him.

 

DeAndre Jordan (LAC) vs. PHO: $7600

Jordan averages an incredible 17.7 RPG through three meetings with the Suns this season, and just pulled down a season-high 24 boards with Blake Griffin out of the lineup on Monday. Griffin (back) is doubtful for tonight's tilt with Phoenix, which means Jordan is pretty much a lock for 20 REB and an incredibly safe bet to hit value on his upper-tier price tag. There's not much else to be said here, the Suns don't have anyone to keep the league's leading rebounder off the glass and the Clippers will have to play him around 40 minutes again tonight. 

 

 

Values: It's time to give Gorgui Dieng another look with Pekovic sidelined again. His price is still rather high at $6000 and the Grizzlies are tough, but the rookie went for 11 Pts, 17 REB and 34.75 DK points against Memphis last week and should be solid again.

 

Timofey Mozgov DID have a great game against Memphis on Monday, but I'm not sold on him replicating that production tonight. Still, he's just $4500 and is locked into big minutes for the injury-riddled Nuggets.

 

Jermaine O'neal is your punt play at center tonight. With Andrew Bogut ruled out he will start again and almost certainly exceed value on his $3400 price tag. 

 

 

Will answer any lineup questions on twitter @nweitzer7

 

 
Challenge me to a $1 Heads up game tonight!  
 

Or try to win big through their GPP contest: (GPPs - Guaranteed Prize Pools)

 

$6 Layup  $6,000 prize pool

 





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