Inside The Box: DraftKings Advice for 4.16.14
It's the final night of the regular season and every team in the league is in action. That doesn't mean anything as far as guaranteed playing time, and hopefully you have enough profit throughout the season to risk playing with so many unknowns tonight. Still, use some discretion on this Big Wednesday, I know somebody's got to win, but don't waste all your hard earned work this season by betting half your bankroll on Chris Paul, who may only get 20 minutes of playing time.
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The Last Night, Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Games to Target:
· Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves (-10): O/U = 212.5
This is a bit of contrarian game to target since neither team has anything to play for other than Minnesota's desire to at least finish .500 at 41-41, but there is value to be found on both sides of the ball and a decently high over/under. The Wolves swept the season series 3-0 thus far, and haven't gotten into any dread close games. However the last two meetings between these teams (in Utah) have a combined average score of 217 and Kevin Love in particular has put up some lofty numbers. Minnesota also has a great mid-tier play in Gorgui Dieng, and the struggling, but still minimum-priced, Kevin Martin.
For Utah, it's give the ball to the young slashers and see if they can produce. That means Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks are worth a look in GPP formats on the off chance that they put on a show in the season finale. Enes Kanter is really coming on strong down the stretch and is another mid-tier value at $6300. My strategy will be to play mostly Wolves, and Kanter or Burks, in the hope that those reserves keep Utah in the game long enough to force Love to post another monster game.
· Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies (-4): O/U = 190
There's a lot of talk about playoff tanking, which the Nets are clearly engaging in, and which makes sense in certain situations. However, there is now way either of these teams prefers to face the San Antonio Spurs, who are a an absolute machine of offensive efficiency and swept both of these squads 4-0 in the regular season series. Therefore, Dallas and Memphis are going to fight for the 7th seed in Memphis tonight and this should be one of the few games were all starters are guaranteed to play big minutes. That is, except for Dirk, who is dealing with hip, ankle, and age issues, and is by no means a recommended play. His limitations boost the values of Monta Ellis and Vince Carter, who should take on more of a scoring load in this game.
Memphis has an incredible ability to slow down even the fastest teams as he saw in Phoenix on Monday, and this game has a minuscule O/U of 190 as a result. That makes rebounding bigs such as Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph should be the most productive players on the floor, and ZBO in particular finds a way to put up big numbers when his team is struggling to score. Mike Conley claims he's going to play through a hamstring injury, but he's risky and Nick Calathes could be a sneaky punt play if you hear Conley will be limited. The Grizzlies wing rotations are a nightmare, but for $3200, Tony Allen is a relatively safe value play that should get 12-20 DK points for near the minimum price.
Outside The Box:
- A lot of starters are going to start tonight, such as the Blazers 82-gamers (Dame Lillard, Wes Matthews, Robin Lopez) but they probably won't play many minutes at all. You should especially beware of playoff-bound teams on the second night of a B2B set such as the Clippers, who will start CP3 and DAJ, but if they watch OKC take care of business against Detroit in an 8 p.m. game, they will have nothing to play for and likely take most of the game off.
- The young guns should rule the night, with a primary example existing in Brooklyn. The Nets are clearly fine with dropping to the 6th seed so they can face the Raptors instead of the Bulls in the first round, and they obviously don't want to risk the health of their older players in a losing effort. Mason Plumlee and Marcus Thornton seem like the safest bets to play big minutes, while Mirza Teletovic could return and provide value.
Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. DET: $8800
Did the Thunder intentionally throw that game on Monday night so that they could face the Warriors in the first round? It certainly seemed strange that they would let Tyreke Evans walk into the paint for 41 PTs when the Pelicans had basically no other offensive options, and OKC looked disinterested at best. Based on the fact that he almost injured himself denying the Pacers twice after the whistle on Sunday, Westbrook is not going to be disinterested in crushing the Pistons to ensure his team gets the 2 seed. Detroit has been a defensive sieve throughout the second half of the season and allows the 5th most FPPG (43.42) to opposing PGs over the last two weeks. Westy hasn't played since Sunday, and won't play again until the playoffs begin this weekend, so Scott Brooks should be liberal with his playing time and there's a chance he could flirt with a triple double as the Thunder likely run away with this one. He's a safe play as usual, and could have tons of upside if Detroit makes an effort to spoil OKC's regular season finale.
Michael Carter-Williams (PHI) vs. MIA: $8200
If MCW manages to post a huge line against the Heat, it would be a fitting bookend to a regular season that began with his shocking near quad-double against Miami back in October. That's a huge IF, but Carter-Williams has something to play for with the ROY award up for grabs and the Heat have no reason to play their starters big minutes as they are locked in as the 2 seed in the East. The Syracuse product seems to have regained some of his early season mojo with per game averages 22 PTs, 10.5 REB, 7 AST, and 2.5 STL over his last two appearances, and should continue to put up numbers in one final losing effort for the tanking Sixers.
Values: Aaron Brooks is not exactly a value at $6000, but played 41 minutes as the Nuggets had just 8 players available last night. He produced 33 DK points in a tough matchup and if the Warriors are playing some of their backups tonight, he could definitely exceed that number.
Austin Rivers was on his way to a great game with 12 DK points in 12 minutes when he got tossed on Monday night. He remains priced at $4800 and should have success against an indifferent Rockets squad tonight.
Values: Lance Stephenson has been ruled out of tonight's contest, so Evan Turner is likely to start at SG and try to play alongside some of Indiana's starters. At $4600 he has a good chance to exceed value.
The Nets are resting everyone and Marcus Thornton is free to launch tons of shots with the extra playing time. He costs just $3900 which is $200 less than he was last night when he produced over 30 DK points.
Tyreke Evans (NOP) vs. HOU: $7700
I guess you should play Tyreke....? Not only is he one of the hardest players to figure out when he's on the floor, he happens to play for one of the sketchiest organizations in terms of releasing injury info through their PR department. The Pelicans announce him inactive, then in the SLU on Monday, and anyone who rolled the dice on him on Saturday to watch him sit on the bench all night ignored that information as he was just 0.4% owned in DK's Layup. That ownership % should shoot up after he produced 70.5 DK points in an upset over the Thunder, and a matchup with the fast-paced Rockets should allow him to continue to put up numbers. Obviously keep an eye on his status, and only consider him for GPPs, but he's got immense upside.
Draymond Green (GSW) vs. DEN: $6000
It's painful to pay this much for a player that's been around 4K, or near the minimum most of the season, but Green is in a great spot tonight with injuries to David Lee and Andrew Bogut. Steph Curry and Klay Thompson have logged a ton of minutes this season, Jermaine O'neal is too old to fill in for most of the game, and Iguodala needs to rest his knees for the playoffs, so Draymond could actually be one of the primary offensive options while he's out there. He's always been able to contribute plenty of peripheral stats and that makes him a great safe play in a fast-paced game, but the potential added usage makes him appealing for this mid-tier price.
Values: The Mavs are playing to avoid the Spurs in the first round and should play their starters a normal amount of minutes. That makes Vince Carter a solid play for $4900.
Matt Barnes' price keeps dropping and he now costs just $4500. He's a safe play regardless, but with Blake Griffin suspended tonight, could exceed value if Doc decides to give him his normal amount of minutes.
Kevin Martin is the minimum price and while he hasn't looked like Kevin Martin, he also hasn't looked like a crappy reserve that cost $3000.
Kevin Love (MIN) vs. UTA: $10,400
Recommending Love certainly worked out on Monday as he not only played, but played exceptionally well in a crazy high-scoring game with the Warriors. He went for 79 DK points (39 in the first quarter!) and nearly posted another triple double. As long as one of his nagging injuries don't keep him out of action tonight, he should continue to terrorize a Jazz team that he's averaging 24.7 PPG, 12.7 RPG, and 7.3 APG against in three meetings this season. The man is going to get his numbers if he's healthy for the season finale and could be a huge factor in GPPs once again.
Zach Randolph (MEM) vs. DAL: $7700
ZBO is hard to predict considering he flopped against the Lakers and followed that up with a dynamite performance against the defensively sound Suns on Monday, so I won't call him a safe play, but his playing time is at least safe in one of the few games with big implications tonight. He's averaging a double double with 20 PPG and 10.7 RPG in three meetings with Dallas this season, and should be able to rip through a hobbled Dirk Nowitzki or one of the Mavericks flawed centers when the Grizzlies need a bucket. Don't sleep on Randolph in a playoff-type atmosphere.
Values: The Pacers aren't resting their entire SLU, but with David West, Lance Stephenson and Paul George inactive Luis Scola should be solid once again. He's no longer a super-value at $4600, but is a safe bet for 50/50 and H2H formats.
Alexis Ajinca only gets playing time in certain matchups, but logged 33 minutes against Houston last week and that led to him exceeding value with 36.75 DK points. The Rockets size may force Monty Williams to use his huge center, who costs just $4200 if you want to use him.
Al Jefferson (CHA) vs. CHI: $9800
Tonight's tilt in Charlotte isn't exactly a prime matchup to target considering both teams make their money on the defensive end of the floor, but it is one of the few contests with something on the line as both teams would like to move up in the playoff standings. I usually don't recommend using players against Thibs, or Joakim Noah, but Al has decent splits against the Bulls this season with per game averages of 26 PTs and 12 REB in two meetings with Chicago. The rest of the Bobcats are really going to struggle to score, and as we saw on Monday night, they will throw the ball down to Big Al and let him work his magic when they can't get a bucket. There's enough value to squeeze an expensive Jefferson into your LUs tonight, and he's always a safe play when Charlotte has something to play for.
Gorgui Dieng (MIN) vs. UTA: $6400Apparently DraftKings doesn't plan on increasing Dieng, or basically any player's price for the last night of the regular season and that's just fine by me. At $6400 Dieng is a near must play. He's a fantastic rebounder that's getting huge minutes in Minnesota's final games and essentially hit the exact value of his price tag with 38.25 DK points on Monday against the Warriors. Tonight's matchup is slightly better on paper, and who knows how many minutes some of the Wolves' veterans may play, but the rookie should get enough time to post another solid double double.
Values: Kelly Olynyk saw the most drastic price jump from Monday to Wednesday as he now costs $5200, but with Kris Humphries and Jared Sullinger doubtful for the finale against Washington, expect him to log big minutes and have a good chance to produce 40+ DK points again.
Andrew Bogut will not play tonight, which means Jermaine O'neal will likely start and costs just $4400.